Company Expects FY26 Capacity Growth of ~10%
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Feb 11 2026
0mins
Should l Buy ULCC?
Sees FY26 Capacity growth ~10%; pre-delivery deposits, net of refunds ($170M)-($210M); and other capital expenditures $200M-$250M. The Company's Q1 adjusted diluted per share guidance reflects RASM on a stage adjusted basis to 1,000 miles currently trending to over 10% higher compared to the corresponding 2025 quarter, underpinned by a more constructive supply-demand environment and revenue management enhancements. Unit costs are expected to be relatively higher in the first quarter largely driven by fleet growth across lower scheduled utilization. Adjusted CASM, a non-GAAP measure, is expected to ease as the year progresses as the Company right-sizes its fleet and generates benefits from the targeted cost savings as noted in the prior section. FY26 per share guidance reflects the expectation of a more constructive supply-demand environment and productivity gains beginning in the Q2.
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Analyst Views on ULCC
Wall Street analysts forecast ULCC stock price to rise
9 Analyst Rating
1 Buy
7 Hold
1 Sell
Hold
Current: 4.880
Low
4.00
Averages
5.57
High
8.00
Current: 4.880
Low
4.00
Averages
5.57
High
8.00
About ULCC
Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. is a holding company. The Company operates through its subsidiary, Frontier Airlines, Inc., which is an ultra-low-cost carrier company. The Company offers flights throughout the United States and to select near international destinations in the Americas. It has a fleet of approximately 159 Airbus single-aisle aircraft, consisting of eight A320ceos, 82 A320neos, 21 A321ceos and 48 A321neos. The Company primarily provides air transportation for passengers. It provides passenger airline service primarily to leisure travelers. It combines its fares with flexible optional services for an additional cost. Such additional options include carry-on and checked baggage, advance seat selection, extended-legroom premium seats, priority boarding and ticket changes and cancellations, as well as bundled options combining various optional services. The Company serves approximately 100 airports throughout the United States and international destinations in the Americas.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Ancient Art Reduces Stake in Frontier Group Holdings
- Share Reduction Transaction: On February 17, 2026, Ancient Art, L.P. reported selling 700,000 shares of Frontier Group Holdings, an estimated $3.10 million trade, indicating a strategic reduction in the fourth quarter while still holding over 3.5 million shares, reflecting a long-term confidence in the stock.
- Position Value Change: Following the sale, Ancient Art's position in Frontier is valued at $16.88 million, a decrease of $2.03 million from the previous quarter, showcasing its response strategy to market volatility, even as the holding still represents 3.82% of its total AUM.
- Poor Stock Performance: As of February 17, 2026, Frontier Group Holdings shares were priced at $5.35, down 42.3% over the past year, significantly underperforming the S&P 500 by 51.46 percentage points, highlighting the challenges the company faces in a competitive airline market.
- Investor Focus: Despite Frontier's struggles with inconsistent profitability and disappointing earnings guidance from management, Ancient Art's sale appears to be more about portfolio management rather than a pessimistic outlook on the company's future, potentially attracting investors willing to take risks for a rebound opportunity.
See More
Spirit Airlines Reaches Bankruptcy Restructuring Agreement
- Bankruptcy Restructuring Plan: Spirit Airlines has reached an agreement with lenders to emerge from its second bankruptcy by late spring or early summer 2024, despite facing severe market competition and high cost pressures.
- Fleet Reduction Strategy: The airline plans to further cut its Airbus fleet, expecting to reduce annualized fleet costs by $550 million, which represents a 65% decrease from pre-bankruptcy levels, in an effort to address its financial challenges.
- Employee Layoffs and Rehires: While Spirit has furloughed pilots and flight attendants as part of its network reduction, it has called back 500 flight attendants ahead of spring break, indicating a cautious optimism about market demand.
- Increased Market Challenges: Spirit faces mounting pressure from larger competitors, particularly as consumer preferences shift towards more upscale travel in the post-pandemic era, compounded by a failed acquisition attempt by JetBlue that was blocked by a federal judge.
See More
Winter Blizzard Grounds Flights Across Eastern U.S.
- Flight Cancellation Overview: A powerful winter blizzard has led to nearly 20% of scheduled U.S. departures being canceled on Monday, totaling over 4,800 flights, highlighting the significant impact of severe weather on the airline industry.
- Impact on New York Airports: LaGuardia Airport saw a staggering 98% cancellation rate, while Boston Logan International and Philadelphia International Airports experienced cancellations of 90% and 80%, respectively, resulting in many stranded passengers.
- Airlines' Response Measures: Major airlines, including American Airlines and Delta Air Lines, have waived fees and fare differences for passengers rebooking by February 26, aiming to alleviate the disruptions caused by the blizzard and facilitate operational recovery.
- Economic Loss Assessment: American Airlines has projected revenue losses between $150 million and $200 million due to the storm, reflecting the economic pressures and operational challenges faced by the airline industry during extreme weather events.
See More
US Suspends TSA PreCheck and Global Entry Programs Amid Government Shutdown
- Reason for Suspension: The Department of Homeland Security suspended TSA PreCheck and Global Entry programs on Sunday due to a partial government shutdown, affecting security processes at over 200 airports and causing significant inconvenience for millions of travelers, highlighting the direct impact of government operations on public travel.
- Membership Impact: As of 2024, TSA PreCheck has over 20 million active members, with approximately 34% of screened passengers being program members; the suspension will significantly increase wait times at security checkpoints, potentially leading travelers to choose alternative travel methods, thereby affecting airline revenues.
- Flight Cancellations: In anticipation of a massive winter storm, airlines have canceled over 6,000 flights and waived cancellation and change fees at multiple East Coast airports, demonstrating the dual impact of weather and policy on the aviation industry.
- Industry Reaction: The airline industry expressed strong dissatisfaction with the suspension of programs due to the government shutdown, viewing travelers as political pawns; last year's shutdown already cost the industry $6.1 billion and affected about 6 million travelers, indicating a long-term threat to the tourism sector from policy instability.
See More
Frontier Airlines CEO to Participate in Barclays Industrial Conference
- Executive Participation: Frontier Airlines CEO Jimmy Dempsey will participate in the Barclays 43rd Annual Industrial Select Conference on February 17, 2026, at 1:50 PM ET, highlighting the company's leadership in the low-fare airline sector.
- Webcast Arrangement: The event will be webcast, allowing investors to access it through the company's investor relations website, enhancing interaction and transparency between the company and its investors.
- Archiving Policy: The webcast will be archived for 90 days, ensuring that investors who cannot attend live can still access the information, thereby improving information accessibility.
- Company Background: Frontier Airlines, a subsidiary of Frontier Group Holdings, Inc., is committed to delivering 'Low Fares Done Right' and operates the largest A320neo family fleet in the U.S., showcasing its competitive advantage in the aviation market.
See More
Frontier Airlines CEO to Attend Barclays Conference
- Executive Participation: Frontier Airlines CEO Jimmy Dempsey will participate in the Barclays 43rd Annual Industrial Select Conference on February 17, 2026, at 1:50 PM, highlighting the company's leadership in the low-fare airline market.
- Live Webcast Arrangement: The event will be webcast, allowing investors to access it through the company's investor relations website, enhancing interaction and transparency between the company and its investors.
- Archiving Strategy: The webcast will be archived for 90 days, ensuring that investors who cannot watch live can still access the information, further improving information accessibility.
- Company Background Overview: Frontier Airlines, a subsidiary of Frontier Group Holdings, Inc., is committed to delivering 'Low Fares Done Right' and operates the largest A320neo family fleet in the U.S., showcasing its competitive advantage in the aviation market.
See More
Ancient Art Reduces Stake in Frontier Group Holdings
- Share Reduction Transaction: On February 17, 2026, Ancient Art, L.P. reported selling 700,000 shares of Frontier Group Holdings, an estimated $3.10 million trade, indicating a strategic reduction in the fourth quarter while still holding over 3.5 million shares, reflecting a long-term confidence in the stock.
- Position Value Change: Following the sale, Ancient Art's position in Frontier is valued at $16.88 million, a decrease of $2.03 million from the previous quarter, showcasing its response strategy to market volatility, even as the holding still represents 3.82% of its total AUM.
- Poor Stock Performance: As of February 17, 2026, Frontier Group Holdings shares were priced at $5.35, down 42.3% over the past year, significantly underperforming the S&P 500 by 51.46 percentage points, highlighting the challenges the company faces in a competitive airline market.
- Investor Focus: Despite Frontier's struggles with inconsistent profitability and disappointing earnings guidance from management, Ancient Art's sale appears to be more about portfolio management rather than a pessimistic outlook on the company's future, potentially attracting investors willing to take risks for a rebound opportunity.
See More
Spirit Airlines Reaches Bankruptcy Restructuring Agreement
- Bankruptcy Restructuring Plan: Spirit Airlines has reached an agreement with lenders to emerge from its second bankruptcy by late spring or early summer 2024, despite facing severe market competition and high cost pressures.
- Fleet Reduction Strategy: The airline plans to further cut its Airbus fleet, expecting to reduce annualized fleet costs by $550 million, which represents a 65% decrease from pre-bankruptcy levels, in an effort to address its financial challenges.
- Employee Layoffs and Rehires: While Spirit has furloughed pilots and flight attendants as part of its network reduction, it has called back 500 flight attendants ahead of spring break, indicating a cautious optimism about market demand.
- Increased Market Challenges: Spirit faces mounting pressure from larger competitors, particularly as consumer preferences shift towards more upscale travel in the post-pandemic era, compounded by a failed acquisition attempt by JetBlue that was blocked by a federal judge.
See More
Winter Blizzard Grounds Flights Across Eastern U.S.
- Flight Cancellation Overview: A powerful winter blizzard has led to nearly 20% of scheduled U.S. departures being canceled on Monday, totaling over 4,800 flights, highlighting the significant impact of severe weather on the airline industry.
- Impact on New York Airports: LaGuardia Airport saw a staggering 98% cancellation rate, while Boston Logan International and Philadelphia International Airports experienced cancellations of 90% and 80%, respectively, resulting in many stranded passengers.
- Airlines' Response Measures: Major airlines, including American Airlines and Delta Air Lines, have waived fees and fare differences for passengers rebooking by February 26, aiming to alleviate the disruptions caused by the blizzard and facilitate operational recovery.
- Economic Loss Assessment: American Airlines has projected revenue losses between $150 million and $200 million due to the storm, reflecting the economic pressures and operational challenges faced by the airline industry during extreme weather events.
See More
US Suspends TSA PreCheck and Global Entry Programs Amid Government Shutdown
- Reason for Suspension: The Department of Homeland Security suspended TSA PreCheck and Global Entry programs on Sunday due to a partial government shutdown, affecting security processes at over 200 airports and causing significant inconvenience for millions of travelers, highlighting the direct impact of government operations on public travel.
- Membership Impact: As of 2024, TSA PreCheck has over 20 million active members, with approximately 34% of screened passengers being program members; the suspension will significantly increase wait times at security checkpoints, potentially leading travelers to choose alternative travel methods, thereby affecting airline revenues.
- Flight Cancellations: In anticipation of a massive winter storm, airlines have canceled over 6,000 flights and waived cancellation and change fees at multiple East Coast airports, demonstrating the dual impact of weather and policy on the aviation industry.
- Industry Reaction: The airline industry expressed strong dissatisfaction with the suspension of programs due to the government shutdown, viewing travelers as political pawns; last year's shutdown already cost the industry $6.1 billion and affected about 6 million travelers, indicating a long-term threat to the tourism sector from policy instability.
See More
Frontier Airlines CEO to Participate in Barclays Industrial Conference
- Executive Participation: Frontier Airlines CEO Jimmy Dempsey will participate in the Barclays 43rd Annual Industrial Select Conference on February 17, 2026, at 1:50 PM ET, highlighting the company's leadership in the low-fare airline sector.
- Webcast Arrangement: The event will be webcast, allowing investors to access it through the company's investor relations website, enhancing interaction and transparency between the company and its investors.
- Archiving Policy: The webcast will be archived for 90 days, ensuring that investors who cannot attend live can still access the information, thereby improving information accessibility.
- Company Background: Frontier Airlines, a subsidiary of Frontier Group Holdings, Inc., is committed to delivering 'Low Fares Done Right' and operates the largest A320neo family fleet in the U.S., showcasing its competitive advantage in the aviation market.
See More
Frontier Airlines CEO to Attend Barclays Conference
- Executive Participation: Frontier Airlines CEO Jimmy Dempsey will participate in the Barclays 43rd Annual Industrial Select Conference on February 17, 2026, at 1:50 PM, highlighting the company's leadership in the low-fare airline market.
- Live Webcast Arrangement: The event will be webcast, allowing investors to access it through the company's investor relations website, enhancing interaction and transparency between the company and its investors.
- Archiving Strategy: The webcast will be archived for 90 days, ensuring that investors who cannot watch live can still access the information, further improving information accessibility.
- Company Background Overview: Frontier Airlines, a subsidiary of Frontier Group Holdings, Inc., is committed to delivering 'Low Fares Done Right' and operates the largest A320neo family fleet in the U.S., showcasing its competitive advantage in the aviation market.
See More
