Coinbase's Stablecoin Revenue Outlook Optimistic Under Genius Act
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Feb 24 2026
0mins
Should l Buy COIN?
Source: seekingalpha
- Stablecoin Revenue Growth Potential: According to Bloomberg Intelligence analysts, Coinbase's stablecoin revenue accounted for approximately 19% in 2025, and under the Genius Act framework, revenue could expand two to seven times if stablecoin adoption in payments accelerates, indicating strong market demand and potential profitability enhancement.
- Legislative Impact and Competition: The Genius Act aims to integrate stablecoins into the financial system; however, banks are pushing to limit stablecoin rewards, which could impact Coinbase's revenue-sharing agreement with Circle, thereby affecting its stablecoin business profitability model.
- Profitability Model Shift: Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong stated that prohibiting interest payments to token holders could ironically make the company more profitable, as it would retain more earnings instead of passing the majority to customers, suggesting a strategic adjustment that could enhance overall financial performance.
- Market Performance and Outlook: Coinbase earned $332.5 million from stablecoins in Q4 2023, reflecting a 38% year-over-year growth, and forecasts subscription/services revenue for Q1 2026 between $550 million and $630 million, demonstrating resilience amid market fluctuations and confidence in future growth.
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Analyst Views on COIN
Wall Street analysts forecast COIN stock price to rise
25 Analyst Rating
17 Buy
7 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 172.990
Low
230.00
Averages
361.63
High
440.00
Current: 172.990
Low
230.00
Averages
361.63
High
440.00
About COIN
Coinbase Global, Inc. is a holding company of Coinbase, Inc. and other subsidiaries. The Company provides a platform that serves as a compliant on-ramp to the onchain economy and enables users to engage in a variety of activities with their crypto assets in both proprietary and third-party product experiences enabled by access to decentralized applications. It offers consumers their primary financial account for the onchain economy; institutions a full-service prime brokerage platform with access to deep pools of liquidity across the crypto marketplace, and developers a suite of products granting access to build onchain. The Company offers products and services to various customer groups: consumers, businesses, institutions, and developers. Its transaction products consist of consumer trading, prime trading, markets, base protocol and Coinbase wallet. The Company also provides market infrastructure in the form of exchanges for customers to trade spots and derivatives.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Coinbase Receives Conditional Approval to Operate as a Trust Bank
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- Payment Product Expansion: The trust charter will allow Coinbase to explore infrastructure products, particularly around payments, which is expected to drive innovation and development in crypto payments, further enhancing its market position in the cryptocurrency sector.
- Optimized Regulatory Environment: By being regulated directly by the OCC instead of state regulators, Coinbase will simplify its operational processes, reduce compliance costs, and facilitate growth in the fast-evolving crypto industry.
- Stablecoin Strategy: Coinbase aims to establish Circle-issued USDC as a mainstream global payment method, with initiatives like Coinbase Payments and partnerships with Shopify further advancing its payment strategy implementation.
See More
Coinbase Receives Conditional Approval to Operate as a Trust Bank
- Trust Bank Approval: Coinbase has received conditional approval from the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) to operate as a trust bank, which will enable it to expand payment products under federal supervision, enhancing its competitive edge in the crypto payments sector.
- Regulatory Advantage: By being directly regulated by the OCC rather than state-level authorities, Coinbase will simplify its operations and reduce compliance costs, allowing the company to operate more effectively in the fast-evolving crypto industry.
- Payment Strategy Development: Coinbase has established a payment strategy centered around the stablecoin USDC, launching the Coinbase Payments product and collaborating with Shopify to position USDC as a mainstream global payment method, thereby increasing its market share.
- Clear Market Goals: CEO Brian Armstrong has set an ambitious goal to make USDC the number one stablecoin globally and aims to position Coinbase as the leading financial services app in the coming years, reflecting its aspirations in the crypto finance landscape.
See More
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- Surge in Payment Volume: In 2025, AI agents accounted for $31 billion in payment volume on Solana, where the active network not only increases transaction frequency but also burns tokens, potentially driving up token prices through supply-demand dynamics.
- Massive Future Potential: With the proliferation of AI agents, the agentic commerce market is projected to grow from $136 billion last year to $1.7 trillion by 2030, positioning Solana as a key platform in this growth trajectory.
- Investment Strategy Advice: Despite Solana's exciting long-term potential, given its 61% decline over the past six months, investors are advised to treat it as a small part of a diversified portfolio, gradually purchasing to mitigate risk.
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- Solana's Market Share: Solana accounts for at least 65% of all agentic on-chain payments, leveraging its rapid transaction speeds and low fees to attract a significant number of AI agents, thereby solidifying its position in the cryptocurrency market.
- Transaction Volume of AI Agents: By 2025, AI agents are projected to generate $31 billion in payment volume on Solana, indicating a rapid enhancement in transaction capabilities that could significantly impact the supply-demand dynamics of cryptocurrencies.
- Investment Considerations: While Solana's long-term potential is promising, its 61% decline over the past six months suggests that investors should treat it as a small part of a diversified portfolio to mitigate risks and avoid excessive exposure at unfavorable prices.
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- Asset Management Expansion: By bringing 250 Digital in-house, Franklin Templeton aims to enhance its actively managed crypto investment offerings beyond basic bitcoin ETFs, catering to institutional clients' demand for sophisticated investment strategies.
- Market Trend: This move reflects a growing institutional preference for yield and complex strategies, as evidenced by a resurgence in bitcoin ETF inflows despite a 41% decline in bitcoin prices over the past six months, indicating strong institutional demand.
- Strategic Partnerships: Franklin Templeton's footprint in digital assets includes collaborations with major crypto industry players like Binance, showcasing its progressive stance in traditional finance and aiming to attract more clients through innovative products and services.
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- Structure and Safeguards: The bond is divided into Series A-1 and A-2, both featuring a 1.60x collateral buffer and a 1.40x liquidation trigger to mitigate Bitcoin's price volatility, ensuring investor capital protection.
- Investor Return Mechanism: The Series A-2 bonds allow investors to receive 15% of any Bitcoin price increase after all principal and interest are repaid, despite Bitcoin's year-to-date decline of over 21%, highlighting market uncertainty.
- Market Reaction and Trends: This bond issuance reflects the growing acceptance of cryptocurrencies in mainstream finance, especially as Fannie Mae partners with Coinbase to offer mortgage programs using crypto as collateral, with Moody's stock slightly rising in pre-market trading and market sentiment shifting to neutral.
See More
Coinbase Receives Conditional Approval to Operate as a Trust Bank
- Trust Bank Approval: Coinbase has received conditional approval from the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency to operate as a trust bank, although the company clarified it will not accept retail deposits or engage in fractional reserve banking, which will enable more efficient handling of funds under regulatory oversight.
- Payment Product Expansion: The trust charter will allow Coinbase to explore infrastructure products, particularly around payments, which is expected to drive innovation and development in crypto payments, further enhancing its market position in the cryptocurrency sector.
- Optimized Regulatory Environment: By being regulated directly by the OCC instead of state regulators, Coinbase will simplify its operational processes, reduce compliance costs, and facilitate growth in the fast-evolving crypto industry.
- Stablecoin Strategy: Coinbase aims to establish Circle-issued USDC as a mainstream global payment method, with initiatives like Coinbase Payments and partnerships with Shopify further advancing its payment strategy implementation.
See More
Coinbase Receives Conditional Approval to Operate as a Trust Bank
- Trust Bank Approval: Coinbase has received conditional approval from the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) to operate as a trust bank, which will enable it to expand payment products under federal supervision, enhancing its competitive edge in the crypto payments sector.
- Regulatory Advantage: By being directly regulated by the OCC rather than state-level authorities, Coinbase will simplify its operations and reduce compliance costs, allowing the company to operate more effectively in the fast-evolving crypto industry.
- Payment Strategy Development: Coinbase has established a payment strategy centered around the stablecoin USDC, launching the Coinbase Payments product and collaborating with Shopify to position USDC as a mainstream global payment method, thereby increasing its market share.
- Clear Market Goals: CEO Brian Armstrong has set an ambitious goal to make USDC the number one stablecoin globally and aims to position Coinbase as the leading financial services app in the coming years, reflecting its aspirations in the crypto finance landscape.
See More
AI Drives Solana to Become the Future of Currency
- AI Payment Market Share: Solana captures at least 65% of on-chain payments through the Coinbase-developed x402 protocol, highlighting its leading position in AI-driven payments and likely attracting more developers and users.
- Surge in Payment Volume: In 2025, AI agents accounted for $31 billion in payment volume on Solana, where the active network not only increases transaction frequency but also burns tokens, potentially driving up token prices through supply-demand dynamics.
- Massive Future Potential: With the proliferation of AI agents, the agentic commerce market is projected to grow from $136 billion last year to $1.7 trillion by 2030, positioning Solana as a key platform in this growth trajectory.
- Investment Strategy Advice: Despite Solana's exciting long-term potential, given its 61% decline over the past six months, investors are advised to treat it as a small part of a diversified portfolio, gradually purchasing to mitigate risk.
See More
AI Agents Set to Dominate Transaction Market by 2030
- Market Growth Projection: Research from Edgar, Dunn & Company indicates that the agentic commerce market, driven by AI agents, is expected to grow from $136 billion last year to $1.7 trillion by 2030, highlighting a transformative potential for traditional payment systems.
- Solana's Market Share: Solana accounts for at least 65% of all agentic on-chain payments, leveraging its rapid transaction speeds and low fees to attract a significant number of AI agents, thereby solidifying its position in the cryptocurrency market.
- Transaction Volume of AI Agents: By 2025, AI agents are projected to generate $31 billion in payment volume on Solana, indicating a rapid enhancement in transaction capabilities that could significantly impact the supply-demand dynamics of cryptocurrencies.
- Investment Considerations: While Solana's long-term potential is promising, its 61% decline over the past six months suggests that investors should treat it as a small part of a diversified portfolio to mitigate risks and avoid excessive exposure at unfavorable prices.
See More
Franklin Templeton Acquires 250 Digital to Enhance Crypto Offerings
- Acquisition Deal: Franklin Templeton has agreed to acquire the small crypto investment firm 250 Digital, which will enhance its newly established Franklin Crypto unit, with the deal expected to close in the second quarter, further advancing its digital asset strategy.
- Asset Management Expansion: By bringing 250 Digital in-house, Franklin Templeton aims to enhance its actively managed crypto investment offerings beyond basic bitcoin ETFs, catering to institutional clients' demand for sophisticated investment strategies.
- Market Trend: This move reflects a growing institutional preference for yield and complex strategies, as evidenced by a resurgence in bitcoin ETF inflows despite a 41% decline in bitcoin prices over the past six months, indicating strong institutional demand.
- Strategic Partnerships: Franklin Templeton's footprint in digital assets includes collaborations with major crypto industry players like Binance, showcasing its progressive stance in traditional finance and aiming to attract more clients through innovative products and services.
See More
Moody's Assigns Ba2 Rating to New Hampshire Bitcoin Bond
- Bond Issuance Overview: The New Hampshire Business Finance Authority has issued a $100 million Bitcoin-backed bond, receiving a Ba2 provisional rating from Moody's, indicating Bitcoin's deeper penetration into traditional finance.
- Structure and Safeguards: The bond is divided into Series A-1 and A-2, both featuring a 1.60x collateral buffer and a 1.40x liquidation trigger to mitigate Bitcoin's price volatility, ensuring investor capital protection.
- Investor Return Mechanism: The Series A-2 bonds allow investors to receive 15% of any Bitcoin price increase after all principal and interest are repaid, despite Bitcoin's year-to-date decline of over 21%, highlighting market uncertainty.
- Market Reaction and Trends: This bond issuance reflects the growing acceptance of cryptocurrencies in mainstream finance, especially as Fannie Mae partners with Coinbase to offer mortgage programs using crypto as collateral, with Moody's stock slightly rising in pre-market trading and market sentiment shifting to neutral.
See More
