Coinbase's Stablecoin Revenue Outlook Optimistic Under Genius Act
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 1 hour ago
0mins
Should l Buy COIN?
Source: seekingalpha
- Stablecoin Revenue Growth Potential: According to Bloomberg Intelligence analysts, Coinbase's stablecoin revenue accounted for approximately 19% in 2025, and under the Genius Act framework, revenue could expand two to seven times if stablecoin adoption in payments accelerates, indicating strong market demand and potential profitability enhancement.
- Legislative Impact and Competition: The Genius Act aims to integrate stablecoins into the financial system; however, banks are pushing to limit stablecoin rewards, which could impact Coinbase's revenue-sharing agreement with Circle, thereby affecting its stablecoin business profitability model.
- Profitability Model Shift: Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong stated that prohibiting interest payments to token holders could ironically make the company more profitable, as it would retain more earnings instead of passing the majority to customers, suggesting a strategic adjustment that could enhance overall financial performance.
- Market Performance and Outlook: Coinbase earned $332.5 million from stablecoins in Q4 2023, reflecting a 38% year-over-year growth, and forecasts subscription/services revenue for Q1 2026 between $550 million and $630 million, demonstrating resilience amid market fluctuations and confidence in future growth.
Trade with 70% Backtested Accuracy
Stop guessing "Should I Buy COIN?" and start using high-conviction signals backed by rigorous historical data.
Sign up today to access powerful investing tools and make smarter, data-driven decisions.
Analyst Views on COIN
Wall Street analysts forecast COIN stock price to rise
25 Analyst Rating
17 Buy
7 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 171.350
Low
230.00
Averages
361.63
High
440.00
Current: 171.350
Low
230.00
Averages
361.63
High
440.00
About COIN
Coinbase Global, Inc. is a holding company of Coinbase, Inc. and other subsidiaries. The Company provides a platform that serves as a compliant on-ramp to the onchain economy and enables users to engage in a variety of activities with their crypto assets in both proprietary and third-party product experiences enabled by access to decentralized applications. It offers consumers their primary financial account for the cryptoeconomy; institutions a full-service prime brokerage platform with access to deep pools of liquidity across the crypto marketplace, and developers a suite of products granting access to build onchain. Its platform helps people and institutions to engage with crypto assets, including trading, staking, safekeeping, spending, and global transfers. It offers products and services to various customer groups: individuals, businesses, institutions, and developers. Its transaction products consist of consumer trading, prime Trading, markets, base protocol and Coinbase wallet.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Coinbase Faces CLARITY Act Stalemate and Earnings Loss
- CLARITY Act Stalemate: Despite the White House taking a leading role in advancing the market structure bill for the CLARITY Act, the legislation remains stalled, forcing crypto and bank executives to finalize a deal by the end of the month, which increases market uncertainty.
- Declining Revenue Expectations: Coinbase's Q4 revenue fell 21% year-over-year to approximately $1.8 billion, missing analysts' expectations of $1.83 billion, indicating the direct impact of a weak cryptocurrency market on the company's performance.
- Significant Net Loss: The company reported a net loss of $667 million for the quarter, compared to a profit of $1.3 billion in the same period last year, primarily due to falling token prices leading to reduced trading activity, reflecting a deteriorating market environment.
- Poor Stock Performance: Coinbase's shares have dropped 33% over the past year, while Bitcoin has logged its worst financial year opening on record, further exacerbating investor pessimism and shifting retail sentiment around COIN into bearish territory.
See More
Coinbase's Stablecoin Revenue Outlook Optimistic Under Genius Act
- Stablecoin Revenue Growth Potential: According to Bloomberg Intelligence analysts, Coinbase's stablecoin revenue accounted for approximately 19% in 2025, and under the Genius Act framework, revenue could expand two to seven times if stablecoin adoption in payments accelerates, indicating strong market demand and potential profitability enhancement.
- Legislative Impact and Competition: The Genius Act aims to integrate stablecoins into the financial system; however, banks are pushing to limit stablecoin rewards, which could impact Coinbase's revenue-sharing agreement with Circle, thereby affecting its stablecoin business profitability model.
- Profitability Model Shift: Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong stated that prohibiting interest payments to token holders could ironically make the company more profitable, as it would retain more earnings instead of passing the majority to customers, suggesting a strategic adjustment that could enhance overall financial performance.
- Market Performance and Outlook: Coinbase earned $332.5 million from stablecoins in Q4 2023, reflecting a 38% year-over-year growth, and forecasts subscription/services revenue for Q1 2026 between $550 million and $630 million, demonstrating resilience amid market fluctuations and confidence in future growth.
See More
CZ: Wall Street Should Worry About AI, Not Crypto
- CZ's Sarcastic Remarks: Binance co-founder Changpeng Zhao sarcastically suggested that Wall Street should focus more on artificial intelligence than cryptocurrency, highlighting his criticism of traditional finance's fears regarding the crypto market.
- IBM Stock Plunge: IBM shares fell over 13% on Monday after AI company Anthropic claimed its tool could modernize legacy COBOL systems, indicating the market's sensitivity to advancements in AI technology.
- Market Reaction: Despite closing down 13.15% at $223.35 during regular trading, IBM shares rose 0.92% in after-hours trading, reflecting a complex investor sentiment regarding its future potential.
- Weakening Price Momentum: IBM's stock exhibits weakening price momentum across short-, medium-, and long-term horizons, yet it still earns a high Quality score in Benzinga's stock rankings, indicating mixed market perceptions of its fundamentals.
See More
Bitcoin Drops Below $64,000 as Market Fear Intensifies
- Bitcoin Plummets: Bitcoin has slipped below $64,000, marking a nearly 50% decline from its all-time high set in October, indicating a sharp deterioration in market sentiment due to new global tariffs and AI disruption fears.
- Ethereum Trading Volume Surge: Ethereum dropped to an intraday low of $1,813, with trading volume soaring by 86% in the last 24 hours, reflecting a strong reaction from investors to the market volatility.
- Severe Market Liquidations: According to Coinglass, over $466 million was liquidated from the market in the last 24 hours, with Bitcoin alone accounting for $233 million, highlighting the high leverage risks and instability in the market.
- Fear Sentiment Spreads: The Crypto Fear & Greed Index indicates that market sentiment has plunged into “Extreme Fear,” suggesting increasing investor anxiety about future price movements, which may lead to further sell-offs.
See More
US Stocks Plunge as Trade Policy Concerns Emerge
- Market Decline: On Monday, the S&P 500 Index fell by 1.04%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped by 1.66%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index decreased by 1.21%, reflecting risk-off sentiment triggered by uncertainty over U.S. trade policy.
- Tariff Increase: President Trump signed an executive order raising global tariffs from 10% to 15%, a move that could curb global economic growth and negatively impact the stock market, particularly as it faces existing pressures.
- AI Risk Impact: A report from Citrini Research detailing potential risks of artificial intelligence on the global economy led to declines in software and payment stocks, with Datadog and Atlassian seeing drops of over 11% and 10%, respectively, indicating market concerns over tech stocks.
- Economic Data Highlights: Despite the stock market downturn, the U.S. January Chicago Fed National Activity Index rose by 0.39 to 0.18, surpassing expectations, suggesting that the economic fundamentals remain strong and may provide support for a future market rebound.
See More
Bitcoin Dips Below $65,000 Amid Rising Tariff and Geopolitical Concerns
- Bitcoin Price Fluctuation: Bitcoin dipped below $65,000 on Monday, hitting a low of $64,830, reflecting a nearly 5% decline from the previous day and indicating growing investor anxiety about market conditions.
- Geopolitical Tensions: President Trump stated he would decide within the next 10 days whether to take military action against Iran, which has heightened investor risk aversion and further pressured Bitcoin prices downward.
- Tariff Policy Impact: Trump announced an immediate increase of retaliatory tariffs to 15% against many foreign trading partners, exacerbating market uncertainties and prompting investors to seek safer assets.
- Market Performance Comparison: Since the beginning of the year, Bitcoin has lost 24%, while safe-haven assets like gold and silver have gained approximately 20% and 23%, respectively, indicating a shift in market preference away from riskier investments.
See More
Coinbase Faces CLARITY Act Stalemate and Earnings Loss
- CLARITY Act Stalemate: Despite the White House taking a leading role in advancing the market structure bill for the CLARITY Act, the legislation remains stalled, forcing crypto and bank executives to finalize a deal by the end of the month, which increases market uncertainty.
- Declining Revenue Expectations: Coinbase's Q4 revenue fell 21% year-over-year to approximately $1.8 billion, missing analysts' expectations of $1.83 billion, indicating the direct impact of a weak cryptocurrency market on the company's performance.
- Significant Net Loss: The company reported a net loss of $667 million for the quarter, compared to a profit of $1.3 billion in the same period last year, primarily due to falling token prices leading to reduced trading activity, reflecting a deteriorating market environment.
- Poor Stock Performance: Coinbase's shares have dropped 33% over the past year, while Bitcoin has logged its worst financial year opening on record, further exacerbating investor pessimism and shifting retail sentiment around COIN into bearish territory.
See More
Coinbase's Stablecoin Revenue Outlook Optimistic Under Genius Act
- Stablecoin Revenue Growth Potential: According to Bloomberg Intelligence analysts, Coinbase's stablecoin revenue accounted for approximately 19% in 2025, and under the Genius Act framework, revenue could expand two to seven times if stablecoin adoption in payments accelerates, indicating strong market demand and potential profitability enhancement.
- Legislative Impact and Competition: The Genius Act aims to integrate stablecoins into the financial system; however, banks are pushing to limit stablecoin rewards, which could impact Coinbase's revenue-sharing agreement with Circle, thereby affecting its stablecoin business profitability model.
- Profitability Model Shift: Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong stated that prohibiting interest payments to token holders could ironically make the company more profitable, as it would retain more earnings instead of passing the majority to customers, suggesting a strategic adjustment that could enhance overall financial performance.
- Market Performance and Outlook: Coinbase earned $332.5 million from stablecoins in Q4 2023, reflecting a 38% year-over-year growth, and forecasts subscription/services revenue for Q1 2026 between $550 million and $630 million, demonstrating resilience amid market fluctuations and confidence in future growth.
See More
CZ: Wall Street Should Worry About AI, Not Crypto
- CZ's Sarcastic Remarks: Binance co-founder Changpeng Zhao sarcastically suggested that Wall Street should focus more on artificial intelligence than cryptocurrency, highlighting his criticism of traditional finance's fears regarding the crypto market.
- IBM Stock Plunge: IBM shares fell over 13% on Monday after AI company Anthropic claimed its tool could modernize legacy COBOL systems, indicating the market's sensitivity to advancements in AI technology.
- Market Reaction: Despite closing down 13.15% at $223.35 during regular trading, IBM shares rose 0.92% in after-hours trading, reflecting a complex investor sentiment regarding its future potential.
- Weakening Price Momentum: IBM's stock exhibits weakening price momentum across short-, medium-, and long-term horizons, yet it still earns a high Quality score in Benzinga's stock rankings, indicating mixed market perceptions of its fundamentals.
See More
Bitcoin Drops Below $64,000 as Market Fear Intensifies
- Bitcoin Plummets: Bitcoin has slipped below $64,000, marking a nearly 50% decline from its all-time high set in October, indicating a sharp deterioration in market sentiment due to new global tariffs and AI disruption fears.
- Ethereum Trading Volume Surge: Ethereum dropped to an intraday low of $1,813, with trading volume soaring by 86% in the last 24 hours, reflecting a strong reaction from investors to the market volatility.
- Severe Market Liquidations: According to Coinglass, over $466 million was liquidated from the market in the last 24 hours, with Bitcoin alone accounting for $233 million, highlighting the high leverage risks and instability in the market.
- Fear Sentiment Spreads: The Crypto Fear & Greed Index indicates that market sentiment has plunged into “Extreme Fear,” suggesting increasing investor anxiety about future price movements, which may lead to further sell-offs.
See More
US Stocks Plunge as Trade Policy Concerns Emerge
- Market Decline: On Monday, the S&P 500 Index fell by 1.04%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped by 1.66%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index decreased by 1.21%, reflecting risk-off sentiment triggered by uncertainty over U.S. trade policy.
- Tariff Increase: President Trump signed an executive order raising global tariffs from 10% to 15%, a move that could curb global economic growth and negatively impact the stock market, particularly as it faces existing pressures.
- AI Risk Impact: A report from Citrini Research detailing potential risks of artificial intelligence on the global economy led to declines in software and payment stocks, with Datadog and Atlassian seeing drops of over 11% and 10%, respectively, indicating market concerns over tech stocks.
- Economic Data Highlights: Despite the stock market downturn, the U.S. January Chicago Fed National Activity Index rose by 0.39 to 0.18, surpassing expectations, suggesting that the economic fundamentals remain strong and may provide support for a future market rebound.
See More
Bitcoin Dips Below $65,000 Amid Rising Tariff and Geopolitical Concerns
- Bitcoin Price Fluctuation: Bitcoin dipped below $65,000 on Monday, hitting a low of $64,830, reflecting a nearly 5% decline from the previous day and indicating growing investor anxiety about market conditions.
- Geopolitical Tensions: President Trump stated he would decide within the next 10 days whether to take military action against Iran, which has heightened investor risk aversion and further pressured Bitcoin prices downward.
- Tariff Policy Impact: Trump announced an immediate increase of retaliatory tariffs to 15% against many foreign trading partners, exacerbating market uncertainties and prompting investors to seek safer assets.
- Market Performance Comparison: Since the beginning of the year, Bitcoin has lost 24%, while safe-haven assets like gold and silver have gained approximately 20% and 23%, respectively, indicating a shift in market preference away from riskier investments.
See More
