China Warns Nvidia Over Tracking Tech—Are Semiconductor ETFs At Risk?

Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst

QCOM+0.91%

SEMI+0.48%

AVGO-1.01%

Source: Benzinga

Updated: Aug 06 2025

0mins

Source: Benzinga

U.S.-China Chip Tensions: China has expressed concerns over U.S. proposals for tracking technology in high-end chips, signaling potential risks for companies like Nvidia amidst ongoing export restrictions and softening demand from Chinese customers.
Impact on Semiconductor ETFs: Investors are reevaluating their exposure to semiconductor ETFs due to geopolitical tensions, with funds heavily weighted in Nvidia likely facing volatility, while opportunities may arise for ETFs focusing on non-U.S. chipmakers or those with locally secured supply chains.

QCOM

$157.8+Infinity%1D

Analyst Views on QCOM

Wall Street analysts forecast QCOM stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for QCOM is 197.14 USD with a low forecast of 165.00 USD and a high forecast of 225.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

16 Analyst Rating

10 Buy

5 Hold

1 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 156.370

Low

165.00

Averages

197.14

High

225.00

Current: 156.370

Low

165.00

Averages

197.14

High

225.00

Mizuho

Outperform -> Neutral

downgrade

$200 -> $175

2026-01-09

Reason

Mizuho

Price Target

$200 -> $175

AI Analysis

2026-01-09

downgrade

Outperform -> Neutral

Reason

Mizuho downgraded Qualcomm to Neutral from Outperform with a price target of $175, down from $200. The firm reduced estimates by up to 7%. Mizuho's estimates are now below consensus, as it sees headwinds to Qualcomm's handset shipments and iPhone content in 2026.

Cantor Fitzgerald

C.J. Muse

Neutral

maintain

$170 -> $185

2025-12-16

Reason

Cantor Fitzgerald

C.J. Muse

Price Target

$170 -> $185

2025-12-16

maintain

Neutral

Reason

Cantor Fitzgerald analyst C.J. Muse raised the firm's price target on Qualcomm to $185 from $170 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The SOX is positioned to lead markets higher after outperforming the S&P by roughly 30 points in CY25, supported by the early stages of the AI era driving demand across compute, networking, memory, and equipment, the analyst tells investors in a research note. While cyclical factors may create mixed signals, the macro backdrop and expected exponential growth in AI infrastructure spending support a long position in the SOX and overweight exposure to AI-related plays into CY26, the firm says.

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Citi

Neutral

maintain

2025-11-19

Reason

Citi

Price Target

2025-11-19

maintain

Neutral

Reason

Citi believes Qualcomm (QCOM) may be evaluating Intel Foundry (INTC) for its data center application-specific integrated circuits business, which represents less than 1% of its sales. Citi found Qualcomm job postings with qualifications including Intel's embedded multi-die interconnect bridge packaging technology, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm also found Apple (AAPL) and Broadcom (AVGO) job postings that include references to Intel's packaging technology. Citi, which doubts the agreements would be material for Intel, points out the three potential contracts would be for packaging, which brings low pricing and margins. Citi keeps a Neutral rating on Qualcomm and Sell rating on Intel.

Mizuho

NULL -> Outperform

maintain

$185 -> $200

2025-11-06

Reason

Mizuho

Price Target

$185 -> $200

2025-11-06

maintain

NULL -> Outperform

Reason

Mizuho raised the firm's price target on Qualcomm to $200 from $185 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares.

About QCOM

Qualcomm Incorporated is engaged in the development and commercialization of foundational technologies for the wireless industry, including third generation (3G), fourth generation (4G) and fifth generation (5G) wireless connectivity, and high-performance and low-power computing, including on-device artificial intelligence. Its segments include Qualcomm CDMA Technologies (QCT), Qualcomm Technology Licensing (QTL) and Qualcomm Strategic Initiatives. QCT develops and supplies integrated circuits and system software based on 3G/4G/5G and other technologies, including radio frequency front-end, digital cockpit and advanced driver assistance and automated driving, Internet of things including consumer electronic devices, industrial devices and edge networking products. QTL grants licenses or otherwise provides rights to use portions of its intellectual property portfolio that includes certain patent rights essential to and/or useful in the manufacture and sale of certain wireless products.

About the author

Emily J. Thompson

Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.