China Lithium Prices Surge 9% as Export Tax Rebates Adjust
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Source: seekingalpha
- Policy Impact: China's Ministry of Finance announced a complete rollback of VAT export rebates for battery products starting January 1, 2027, which is expected to prompt exporters to accelerate overseas shipments, thereby increasing lithium demand and driving prices higher.
- Lithium Price Surge: The most-active lithium carbonate contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange closed up 9% at 156,060 yuan/metric ton, marking the highest level since November 2023, reflecting optimistic market expectations for future lithium demand.
- Positive Market Reaction: In pre-market U.S. trading, lithium miners saw significant stock price increases, with Albemarle up 1.7%, SQM up 4.2%, and Lithium Americas up 5.2%, indicating investor confidence in the lithium market outlook.
- Battery Production Boost: Analysts noted that the anticipated short-term increase in battery production will further drive lithium demand, especially as exporters rush to ship batteries ahead of the tax policy changes, enhancing the market position of lithium miners.
Analyst Views on ALB
Wall Street analysts forecast ALB stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ALB is 149.79 USD with a low forecast of 85.00 USD and a high forecast of 210.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
20 Analyst Rating
10 Buy
10 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 189.750
Low
85.00
Averages
149.79
High
210.00
Current: 189.750
Low
85.00
Averages
149.79
High
210.00
About ALB
Albemarle Corporation is engaged in transforming essential resources into critical ingredients for mobility, energy, connectivity, and health. The Company’s segments include Energy Storage, Specialties, and Ketjen. The Energy Storage segment develops and manufactures a range of basic lithium compounds, including lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and lithium chloride. Its Specialties business optimizes its portfolio of bromine and highly specialized lithium solutions. Its Specialties business serves a variety of industries, including energy, mobility, connectivity, and health. Specialty products are essential in both internal combustion and electric vehicles, from high-voltage cables and powertrains to airbags and tires. Its Ketjen segment includes clean fuels technologies (CFT), fluidized catalytic cracking (FCC) catalysts and additives, and performance catalyst solutions (PCS). It serves various markets such as grid storage, automotive, aerospace, conventional energy, and others.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
