Carnival Shares Rise 2.75%
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 3 days ago
0mins
Moderately bullish activity in Carnival (CCL), with shares up 72c, or 2.75%, near $26.70. Options volume roughly in line with average with 53k contracts traded and calls leading puts for a put/call ratio of 0.59, compared to a typical level near 1.23. Implied volatility (IV30) is higher by 4.8 points near 62.15, in the highest 10% of observations over the past year, suggesting an expected daily move of $1.05. Put-call skew steepened, indicating increased demand for downside protection.
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Analyst Views on CCL
Wall Street analysts forecast CCL stock price to rise
18 Analyst Rating
14 Buy
4 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 27.940
Low
33.00
Averages
37.41
High
45.00
Current: 27.940
Low
33.00
Averages
37.41
High
45.00
About CCL
Carnival Corporation is a global cruise and leisure travel company. The Company has a portfolio of cruise lines, including AIDA Cruises, Carnival Cruise Line, Costa Cruises, Cunard, Holland America Line, P&O Cruises (Australia), P&O Cruises (UK), Princess Cruises, and Seabourn. The Company's segment includes NAA cruise operations, Europe cruise operations (Europe), Cruise Support and Tour and Other. Its Cruise Support segment includes its portfolio of port destinations and exclusive islands as well as other services, all of which are operated for the benefit of its cruise brands. In addition to its cruise operations, it owns Holland America Princess Alaska Tours, a tour company in Alaska and the Canadian Yukon, which complements its Alaska cruise operations. Its Tour and Other segment represents the hotel and transportation operations of Holland America Princess Alaska Tours and other operations. Its tour company owns and operates hotels, lodges, glass-domed railcars and motorcoaches.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Increased Port Days: The new itineraries add over 70 additional port days, allowing guests longer stays in port to immerse themselves in local culture and festive activities, thereby enhancing customer satisfaction and brand loyalty.
- Holiday Market Cruises: Specially designed Christmas market cruises immerse guests in Europe during its most atmospheric season, with overnight stays in cities like Helsinki and Stockholm, allowing travelers to experience the charm of holiday markets at night, increasing the appeal of the voyages.
- Mediterranean Voyages: Winter sailings will shift to the Mediterranean, where guests can explore cultural capitals and coastal towns at a slower pace in mild weather, offering a more authentic travel experience that is expected to attract travelers seeking unique journeys.
See More
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- Shareholder Return Strategy: Earlier this year, Carnival reinstated its dividend and authorized $2.5 billion in stock buybacks, reflecting confidence in future growth and potentially narrowing the valuation gap with competitors.
- Attractive Stock Valuation: Trading at 13 times this fiscal year's earnings, Carnival's stock is undervalued compared to industry averages, and strong future bookings suggest it remains an attractive investment in a generally overvalued market.
See More
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- Dividend and Buyback: The company reinstated its dividend and authorized a $2.5 billion stock buyback during its latest earnings call, indicating improved financial health and a commitment to returning value to shareholders, potentially attracting more investor interest.
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See More
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- First-Timer Growth: UBS analysts highlight a high rate of 'first-timers' in cruising, indicating substantial under-penetration compared to the broader travel market, especially when contrasted with Las Vegas's historically low first-timer rates.
- Earnings Growth Potential: A one percentage point increase in yield could boost EPS by 4% to 5% for cruise operators, illustrating how the industry's high fixed-cost structure makes yield recovery significantly impactful on the bottom line, particularly for companies like Royal Caribbean (RCL) and Carnival (CCL).
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- Oil Price Fluctuations: Crude oil prices plummeted over 5% to a five-week low due to optimism surrounding a US-Iran peace deal, which eased inflation expectations and pushed the 10-year Treasury yield down to a 1.5-week low of 4.45%, providing support for the bond market.
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See More
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- External Expert Involvement: Carnival has engaged third-party security experts to conduct a thorough investigation, aiming to assess the incident's impact and enhance future cybersecurity measures to prevent similar occurrences, reflecting the company's commitment to security issues.
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See More
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- Year-Round Expansion: Holland America Line announces the introduction of year-round cruising in Europe for the 2027-2028 season, with the Nieuw Statendam remaining in Europe, significantly increasing winter sailing opportunities and expected to attract more travelers seeking non-traditional summer experiences.
- Increased Port Days: The new itineraries add over 70 additional port days, allowing guests longer stays in port to immerse themselves in local culture and festive activities, thereby enhancing customer satisfaction and brand loyalty.
- Holiday Market Cruises: Specially designed Christmas market cruises immerse guests in Europe during its most atmospheric season, with overnight stays in cities like Helsinki and Stockholm, allowing travelers to experience the charm of holiday markets at night, increasing the appeal of the voyages.
- Mediterranean Voyages: Winter sailings will shift to the Mediterranean, where guests can explore cultural capitals and coastal towns at a slower pace in mild weather, offering a more authentic travel experience that is expected to attract travelers seeking unique journeys.
See More
Carnival Corp. Optimistic Earnings Outlook Amid Strong Bookings
- Optimistic Earnings Outlook: Carnival is expected to report a second-quarter EPS of $0.34, slightly below last year's $0.35, yet analysts anticipate a 6% revenue increase, indicating resilience amid challenges.
- Valuation Disparity: With a market cap of nearly $39 billion, Carnival lags behind Royal Caribbean's $76 billion, despite generating $27 billion in revenue compared to Royal Caribbean's $18.4 billion, highlighting a significant valuation gap.
- Shareholder Return Strategy: Earlier this year, Carnival reinstated its dividend and authorized $2.5 billion in stock buybacks, reflecting confidence in future growth and potentially narrowing the valuation gap with competitors.
- Attractive Stock Valuation: Trading at 13 times this fiscal year's earnings, Carnival's stock is undervalued compared to industry averages, and strong future bookings suggest it remains an attractive investment in a generally overvalued market.
See More
Carnival Cruise Stock Outperforms Rivals
- Stock Performance: Carnival's stock has risen 21% over the past year, outperforming its two main rivals, which reflects its strong performance in the cruise industry and boosts investor confidence.
- Dividend and Buyback: The company reinstated its dividend and authorized a $2.5 billion stock buyback during its latest earnings call, indicating improved financial health and a commitment to returning value to shareholders, potentially attracting more investor interest.
- Earnings Expectations: Analysts expect Carnival to report a 6% revenue increase in its upcoming earnings report, but the projected earnings per share of $0.34 is slightly below last year's $0.35, highlighting challenges in profitability amid rising costs.
- Valuation Discrepancy: With a market capitalization of nearly $39 billion, Carnival is significantly lower than Royal Caribbean's $76 billion, despite generating $27 billion in revenue, indicating a valuation gap that could narrow if Carnival continues to improve its performance.
See More
Cruise Industry Continues Strong Performance Amid Challenges
- Industry Resilience: Despite challenges such as pandemics, geopolitical conflicts, and volatile energy markets, the cruise industry remains one of the most consistent performers in travel, attracting significant interest from Baby Boomers and Millennials, thus presenting an appealing investment opportunity.
- First-Timer Growth: UBS analysts highlight a high rate of 'first-timers' in cruising, indicating substantial under-penetration compared to the broader travel market, especially when contrasted with Las Vegas's historically low first-timer rates.
- Earnings Growth Potential: A one percentage point increase in yield could boost EPS by 4% to 5% for cruise operators, illustrating how the industry's high fixed-cost structure makes yield recovery significantly impactful on the bottom line, particularly for companies like Royal Caribbean (RCL) and Carnival (CCL).
- Optimistic Market Outlook: Although Caribbean supply growth is projected at 12% for 2026, exceeding typical high single-digit growth, yields are still rising in both the Caribbean and Alaska, which is expected to enhance earnings for the year; UBS maintains a 'Buy' rating on RCL, CCL, and VIK, indicating better growth prospects for these companies.
See More
Mixed Close for US Stocks as Oil Prices Plunge
- Market Performance: On Wednesday, the S&P 500 Index rose by 0.02%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.36% to a new record high, while the Nasdaq 100 fell by 0.09%, indicating a divergence in market sentiment amid enthusiasm for artificial intelligence and declining oil prices.
- Oil Price Fluctuations: Crude oil prices plummeted over 5% to a five-week low due to optimism surrounding a US-Iran peace deal, which eased inflation expectations and pushed the 10-year Treasury yield down to a 1.5-week low of 4.45%, providing support for the bond market.
- Mortgage Application Decline: US MBA mortgage applications fell by 8.5% for the week ending May 22, with the purchase mortgage sub-index down 0.4% and the refinancing sub-index down 18.1%, reflecting the dampening effect of high interest rates on housing demand, as the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose to 6.65%.
- Corporate Earnings Outlook: As of Wednesday, 83% of the 475 S&P 500 companies that reported Q1 earnings exceeded expectations, with projected earnings growth of 12% year-over-year, but excluding the technology sector, the growth is only 3%, indicating signs of overall earnings weakness.
See More
Carnival Corp Faces Cybersecurity Incident
- Cybersecurity Incident: Carnival Corp reported a cybersecurity incident in April involving a compromised employee account, leading to the leak of personal information such as names, addresses, and government-issued ID numbers, highlighting vulnerabilities in the company's data protection practices.
- Rapid Response Actions: The company quickly blocked unauthorized activities, demonstrating its emergency response capabilities in the face of cyberattacks, yet revealing employee susceptibility to social engineering attacks, which could undermine customer trust.
- External Expert Involvement: Carnival has engaged third-party security experts to conduct a thorough investigation, aiming to assess the incident's impact and enhance future cybersecurity measures to prevent similar occurrences, reflecting the company's commitment to security issues.
- Potential Business Impact: This incident may negatively affect Carnival's brand image and customer trust, particularly in the travel industry where concerns over personal information security are increasing, potentially influencing future customer choices and company performance.
See More
