Breaking Down the Numbers: TPYP Aims for $40
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Aug 22 2025
0mins
Source: NASDAQ.COM
ETF Analysis: The Tortoise North American Pipeline Fund ETF (TPYP) has an implied analyst target price of $39.66 per unit, while it is currently trading at approximately $35.58, indicating an expected upside of 11.46%.
Underlying Holdings Performance: Key holdings within TPYP, including Energy Transfer LP (ET), Plains All American Pipeline LP (PAA), and Plains GP Holdings LP (PAGP), show significant potential for growth based on analysts' target prices.
Analyst Target Comparisons: ET's average target price is $22.87, suggesting a 30.96% increase from its current price of $17.46; PAA has a target of $21.13 (20.21% upside), and PAGP's target is $21.25 (12.34% upside).
Investor Considerations: Questions arise regarding the validity of these analyst targets, prompting further research into whether they reflect realistic expectations or if they may be overly optimistic given recent market developments.
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Analyst Views on PAGP
Wall Street analysts forecast PAGP stock price to fall
6 Analyst Rating
2 Buy
3 Hold
1 Sell
Hold
Current: 24.380
Low
16.50
Averages
20.42
High
23.00
Current: 24.380
Low
16.50
Averages
20.42
High
23.00
About PAGP
Plains GP Holdings, L.P. through Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. (PAA), owns and operates midstream energy infrastructure and provides logistics companies in North America. Its Crude Oil operations consist of gathering and transporting crude oil using pipelines, gathering systems, trucks and, at times, on barges or railcars, in addition to providing terminalling, storage and other related services utilizing its integrated assets across the United States and Canada. Its assets provide services to third parties as well as to its merchant activities. Its merchant activities include the purchase of crude oil supply and the movement of this supply on third-party assets to sales locations. Crude Oil includes its crude oil pipelines, crude oil storage and marine terminals and related crude oil marketing activities.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Stable Maintenance Capital: Maintenance capital is projected to remain around $185 million, indicating ongoing investment in infrastructure stability aimed at supporting long-term operational efficiency.
- Project Return Expectations: Several growth projects are anticipated to contribute high returns to EBITDA in 2027, especially with additional gathering volumes in the New Mexico Delaware Basin, showcasing the company's keen market demand insights.
- Improved Market Environment: With the global crude oil supply-demand balance improving, Plains expects to benefit from increased demand for North American hydrocarbons, further enhancing the value of energy infrastructure assets and reinforcing its commitment to capital returns to unitholders.
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- Stable Maintenance Capital: Maintenance capital is projected to remain around $185 million, ensuring ongoing operations and maintenance of infrastructure while laying the groundwork for future growth.
- Improved Market Environment: With the tightening of global crude oil supply and demand balances, Plains anticipates benefiting from increased demand for North American hydrocarbons, further advancing high-return projects.
- Positive Future Outlook: The company expects these investments to significantly contribute to EBITDA in 2027, indicating its commitment to enhancing capital returns to unitholders amid rising energy infrastructure asset values.
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- Cash Flow Strength: The analyst highlighted Plains' strong free cash flow generation and its potential as an M&A candidate, which positions the company favorably in a consolidating industry landscape.
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See More
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- Cash Flow Expectations: Management anticipates approximately $1.85 billion in adjusted free cash flow this year, coupled with a current distribution yield of about 7.5%, further enhancing investor confidence in its long-term value.
See More
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- Capital Spending Increase: Plains expects growth capital spending to rise from approximately $350 million to a range of $400 to $450 million in 2026, reflecting confidence in future growth projects, particularly in the Permian long-haul and gathering businesses.
- Stable Maintenance Capital: Maintenance capital is projected to remain around $185 million, indicating ongoing investment in infrastructure stability aimed at supporting long-term operational efficiency.
- Project Return Expectations: Several growth projects are anticipated to contribute high returns to EBITDA in 2027, especially with additional gathering volumes in the New Mexico Delaware Basin, showcasing the company's keen market demand insights.
- Improved Market Environment: With the global crude oil supply-demand balance improving, Plains expects to benefit from increased demand for North American hydrocarbons, further enhancing the value of energy infrastructure assets and reinforcing its commitment to capital returns to unitholders.
See More
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- Capital Spending Increase: Plains expects its growth capital spending to rise from approximately $350 million to a range of $400 to $450 million in 2026, reflecting multiple growth projects across its Permian long-haul, Canadian gathering, and Permian gathering businesses.
- Stable Maintenance Capital: Maintenance capital is projected to remain around $185 million, ensuring ongoing operations and maintenance of infrastructure while laying the groundwork for future growth.
- Improved Market Environment: With the tightening of global crude oil supply and demand balances, Plains anticipates benefiting from increased demand for North American hydrocarbons, further advancing high-return projects.
- Positive Future Outlook: The company expects these investments to significantly contribute to EBITDA in 2027, indicating its commitment to enhancing capital returns to unitholders amid rising energy infrastructure asset values.
See More
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- Rating Upgrade: Goldman Sachs upgraded Plains All American Pipeline from Sell to Neutral with a price target raised from $18 to $24, reflecting an improved crude macro environment and a modestly better growth outlook for the company.
- Cash Flow Strength: The analyst highlighted Plains' strong free cash flow generation and its potential as an M&A candidate, which positions the company favorably in a consolidating industry landscape.
- Strategic Focus: Following the recent sale of its Canadian natural gas liquids assets, Plains has a more focused strategic outlook, with an expected ~3% EBITDA compound annual growth rate from 2026 to 2030, alongside ~3x leverage and a ~10% free cash flow yield during this period.
- Market Positioning: While Goldman Sachs maintains a neutral stance on Plains, the analyst notes that the company is likely to lag behind peers with higher EBITDA growth and shareholder return potential, which limits a more constructive outlook, although downside risks to the stock have moderated.
See More
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- Valuation Grades: According to Seeking Alpha's valuation grades, DKL, MNR, and NEXT all received an A+ rating, demonstrating strong performance across multiple valuation metrics such as P/E, PEG, and EV/Sales, which reflects their investment potential.
- Yield Potential: Hess Midstream offers an 8% yield backed by Chevron, showcasing its stable cash flow and attractiveness, which may appeal to investors seeking high yields in the current market environment.
- Acquisition Dynamics: Northern Oil and Gas acquired a 25% stake in Duvernay for an initial purchase price of C$350 million, which, while increasing its leverage, is viewed as a fair price acquisition that could enhance its market position.
See More
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- Share Increase: Energy Income Partners disclosed a purchase of 120,765 shares of Plains GP Holdings in Q1 2026, valued at approximately $2.64 million, indicating strong confidence in the company.
- Stake Significance: Following this acquisition, Plains GP Holdings now represents 3.51% of Energy Income Partners' assets under management, highlighting its importance within the investment portfolio.
- Performance Growth: Plains GP Holdings reported a 4% year-over-year increase in Q1 adjusted EBITDA to $582 million, driven by higher pipeline volumes and recent acquisitions, showcasing the company's competitive position in the market.
- Cash Flow Outlook: Management anticipates approximately $1.85 billion in adjusted free cash flow for 2026, further solidifying the company's critical role in energy infrastructure.
See More
Energy Income Partners Increases Stake in Plains GP Holdings
- Share Increase: Energy Income Partners increased its stake in Plains GP Holdings by 120,765 shares in Q1, with an estimated transaction value of $2.64 million, indicating confidence in the company's market outlook.
- Value Growth: By quarter-end, the fund's total holdings were valued at $217.91 million, reflecting an increase of $48.44 million due to both trading activity and share price appreciation during the period.
- Strong Business Performance: Plains GP Holdings reported a 4% year-over-year increase in first-quarter adjusted EBITDA to $582 million, driven by higher pipeline volumes and recent acquisitions, underscoring its critical role in energy infrastructure.
- Cash Flow Expectations: Management anticipates approximately $1.85 billion in adjusted free cash flow this year, coupled with a current distribution yield of about 7.5%, further enhancing investor confidence in its long-term value.
See More
