BP Expects 2026 Capital Expenditure of $13-13.5 Billion
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Apr 28 2026
0mins
Should l Buy BP?
The company said, "BP now expects reported upstream production to be lower due to effects of disruption in the Middle East and underlying upstream production to be broadly flat compared with 2025. Within this, bp expects underlying production from oil production & operations to be broadly flat and production from gas & low carbon energy to be lower. In its customers business, bp continues to expect to make continued progress growing cash flows, supported by lower underlying operating expenditure driven by structural cost reductions*. These benefits will be partly offset by the earnings impact of completed and announced divestments. Reported earnings will benefit from lower depreciation as a result of the assets held for sale accounting treatment of Castrol following the planned divestment. Fuel margins are expected to remain sensitive to movements in the cost of supply. In products, bp continues to expect significantly lower level of turnaround activity. Refining margins are expected to remain sensitive to the cost of supply and conditions in the Middle East. BP continues to expect other businesses & corporate underlying annual charge to be around $1.0 billion for 2026. The charge may vary quarter to quarter. BP continues to expect the depreciation, depletion and amortization to be broadly flat compared with 2025. BP continues to expect the underlying ETR for 2026 to be around 40% but it is sensitive to a range of factors, including the volatility of the price environment and its impact on the geographical mix of the group's profits and losses. BP continues to expect capital expenditure to be $13-13.5 billion and now evenly weighted through the year. BP continues to expect divestment and other proceeds to be $9-10 billion in 2026, including approximately $6 billion from the announced Castrol transaction, all significantly weighted to the second half. BP continues to expect Gulf of America settlement payments for the year to be around $1.6 billion pre-tax including $0.4 billion pre tax paid during the first quarter and $1.1 billion pre-tax paid during the second quarter."
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Analyst Views on BP
Wall Street analysts forecast BP stock price to rise
11 Analyst Rating
5 Buy
5 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 44.120
Low
6.38
Averages
84.26
High
503.69
Current: 44.120
Low
6.38
Averages
84.26
High
503.69
About BP
BP p.l.c. is a United Kingdom-based integrated energy company. Its segments include Gas & low carbon energy, Oil production & operations, Customers & products, and Other businesses & corporate. The gas & low carbon energy comprises regions with upstream businesses that predominantly produce natural gas, gas marketing and trading activities and its solar, wind and hydrogen businesses. The oil production & operations segment comprises regions with upstream activities that predominantly produce crude oil, including bpx energy. The customers & products segment comprises its customer-focused businesses, which include convenience and retail fuels, electric vehicle (EV) charging, as well as Castrol, aviation and business-to-business (B2B) and midstream. It also includes its products businesses, refining and oil trading, as well as its bioenergy businesses. The other businesses and corporate also comprises the Company's shipping and treasury functions, and corporate activities worldwide.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Exploratory Activities: The agreement will involve seismic surveys and exploratory drilling, which are expected to provide BP with new resource discovery opportunities, thereby enhancing its competitive position in the region.
- Market Potential: This move not only strengthens BP's operational footprint in Central Asia but also aligns with its long-term strategic goals by potentially driving future revenue growth through the development of new resources.
- Risks and Opportunities: Analysts suggest that BP's market performance is still underestimated, and this acquisition could provide the company with a 'second chance' to improve its market image and boost investor confidence.
See More
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- Restructuring Strategy: BP's new CEO Meg O'Neill is considering the sale of some natural gas assets in Egypt as part of a strategy to cut debt and refocus on more profitable projects, indicating the company's adaptive approach to market challenges.
- Investment Background: BP has invested over $35 billion in Egypt over six decades, producing about 60% of the country's natural gas through joint ventures, highlighting its deep-rooted presence and market influence in the region.
- Production Decline: Last year, BP produced 518 million cubic feet of natural gas per day in Egypt, down approximately 40% from 2024 and nearly 60% from 2023, reflecting pressures on the company in resource management and market competition.
- Project Overview: The West Nile Delta development includes five gas fields across the North Alexandria and West Mediterranean deepwater blocks, and despite challenges, BP is striving to maintain its production capacity in the region.
See More
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- Major Commercial Deal: Trump announced that China will order 200 Boeing jets, seen as a significant win for the U.S. planemaker, which is expected to positively impact Boeing's performance and potentially boost the related supply chain.
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See More
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- Market Reaction: Asian markets showed mixed performance ahead of Trump's visit, while U.S. futures remained relatively unchanged; notably, the S&P 500 reached an all-time high on Wall Street, reflecting traders' enthusiasm for technology stocks despite pressures from the latest inflation report.
- Inflation Data Impact: U.S. wholesale inflation surged to 6% year-over-year in April, marking the highest increase since 2022, which intensifies pressure on Federal Reserve policy and complicates the economic backdrop for Trump's high-level diplomacy.
- Global Oil Flow Constraints: The closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to the Iran war has severely impacted global oil flows, with OPEC reporting a 30% reduction in supply since the conflict began, posing significant risks to demand growth this year.
See More
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- Lockout Impact: The Whiting refinery, the largest in the U.S. Midwest with a capacity of 440,000 barrels per day, faces production disruptions due to the lockout, potentially impacting BP's market share and profitability, compelling the company to maintain competitiveness under various economic conditions.
- Union Demands: The union is demanding BP lift the lockout and retract its requests to cut over 100 local jobs, implement sweeping pay cuts, and relinquish bargaining and seniority rights; failure to meet these demands could lead to a stalemate in negotiations, further eroding worker confidence.
- Long-term Strategy: BP expressed its desire to reach an agreement that preserves strong job opportunities while keeping the site competitive in a range of economic conditions, which not only helps maintain the company's image but may also lay the groundwork for future business growth.
See More
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- Future Growth Catalysts: Plug Power has deployed over 320 megawatts of electrolyzer solutions globally and has more than $8 billion in additional projects in the pipeline, highlighting its strong growth potential in industrial and energy applications.
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See More
