Bonds May Be Better Bet Than Stocks as Investors Prepare for Lower Rates
- Bond Market Expectations: The bond market is anticipating rate cuts in the near future.
- Yield Movement: The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury has dropped significantly from a high in April to around 4.32% currently.
- Bond Prices Increase: Bond prices have risen, with the benchmark iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF up by 3% since May.
- Federal Reserve Concerns: Stock investors are worried about the frequency of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year.
- Market Speculation: There is speculation and uncertainty regarding the number of times the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates.
Trade with 70% Backtested Accuracy
Analyst Views on AGG
No data
About the author
Countering the Bubble: A Protective Fund Portfolio for Current Conditions
Types of Market Crashes: Stock market bubbles can lead to two distinct types of crashes when they burst: sector-specific crashes and systemic crashes.
Sector-Specific Crashes: An example of a sector-specific crash is the dot-com collapse that occurred between 2000 and 2002, which primarily affected technology stocks.
Systemic Crashes: In contrast, systemic crashes impact the entire market, as seen during the financial crisis of 2008-09, where widespread declines occurred across various sectors.
Uniqueness of Bubbles: Each stock market bubble is unique, much like snowflakes, indicating that the circumstances and outcomes of each bubble's burst can vary significantly.
Top Income Opportunities for 2026: Dividend Stocks, Energy Pipelines, and More Recommended Choices
- Bond Market Performance: The bond market experienced its best year since 2020, surprising income investors who were losing hope.
- Future Outlook: Despite some emerging risks, the outlook for the bond market in 2026 remains positive.
US10Y Reaches Two-Month Peak, Surpassing 100-Day Moving Average
Treasury Yields Rise: The U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield reached its highest level in over two months, climbing to around 4.18% as investors shifted away from bonds, leading to lower prices and higher yields across the Treasury curve.
Market Momentum: The increase in yields has pushed the 10-Year Treasury above its 100-day moving average, indicating renewed market momentum, although it remains lower compared to earlier in the year.
Investor Monitoring: Analysts and investors are closely watching the yield curve for its potential impact on borrowing costs, investment strategies, and economic forecasts, especially with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) set to announce its latest rate decision.
ETFs to Watch: A variety of fixed income exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are highlighted for investors to monitor, including Treasury ETFs (e.g., TLT, IEF), Bond ETFs (e.g., AGG, BND), and Inflation Protection ETFs (e.g., TIP, VTIP).
Attention Retirees: Time for Your Year-End Portfolio Assessment—Here’s How to Proceed.
- Portfolio Review Importance: December is a crucial time for reviewing investment portfolios, especially in light of potential shifts in the investment landscape.
- Retiree Considerations: Retirees need to be proactive and cannot afford to manage their investments passively as they approach 2026.
US ETF Inflows Reach All-Time High—VOO, SPY, and QQQ Propel Big Three's Control of $13 Trillion Market
U.S. ETF Industry Growth: The U.S. ETF industry has reached a record $13.08 trillion in assets, with October alone seeing $186.19 billion in net inflows, marking the largest monthly increase ever and bringing year-to-date inflows to $1.14 trillion.
Market Consolidation: Despite the growth in the number of ETFs, the market is increasingly dominated by the top three providers—iShares, Vanguard, and SPDR—who collectively hold 72.1% of U.S. ETF assets.
Top Performing ETFs: The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) led October inflows with $17.74 billion, followed by SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ), reflecting strong investor interest in both equity and tech-focused funds.
Diverse Inflows Across Asset Classes: Inflows were also significant in fixed-income and alternative assets, with notable contributions from iShares U.S. Treasury Bond ETF and iShares Bitcoin Trust, indicating a broad interest in various investment strategies amid market volatility.
U.S. SEC Investigating Remaining Concerns in Treasury Clearing Regulations
SEC's Investigation: The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is examining issues related to the implementation of a new rule requiring most U.S. Treasury market transactions to be cleared centrally, with a focus on inter-affiliate transaction requirements.
New Clearing Mandates: In December 2023, the SEC introduced mandates for market participants to clear U.S. Treasuries through an approved Covered Clearing Agency, while also delaying implementation due to concerns from market participants about preparation time.
Inter-Affiliate Exemption: The SEC is considering expanding the exemption for inter-affiliate transactions, which may currently be too restrictive, to include cash transactions and other types of affiliates, recognizing the importance of these trades for liquidity and collateral management.
Ongoing Efforts: SEC Commissioner Mark Uyeda emphasized that while progress has been made on the Treasury Clearing Rules, further work is needed, and the SEC aims to provide clarity and potential amendments to support market participants in their implementation efforts.
Countering the Bubble: A Protective Fund Portfolio for Current Conditions
Types of Market Crashes: Stock market bubbles can lead to two distinct types of crashes when they burst: sector-specific crashes and systemic crashes.
Sector-Specific Crashes: An example of a sector-specific crash is the dot-com collapse that occurred between 2000 and 2002, which primarily affected technology stocks.
Systemic Crashes: In contrast, systemic crashes impact the entire market, as seen during the financial crisis of 2008-09, where widespread declines occurred across various sectors.
Uniqueness of Bubbles: Each stock market bubble is unique, much like snowflakes, indicating that the circumstances and outcomes of each bubble's burst can vary significantly.
Top Income Opportunities for 2026: Dividend Stocks, Energy Pipelines, and More Recommended Choices
- Bond Market Performance: The bond market experienced its best year since 2020, surprising income investors who were losing hope.
- Future Outlook: Despite some emerging risks, the outlook for the bond market in 2026 remains positive.
US10Y Reaches Two-Month Peak, Surpassing 100-Day Moving Average
Treasury Yields Rise: The U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield reached its highest level in over two months, climbing to around 4.18% as investors shifted away from bonds, leading to lower prices and higher yields across the Treasury curve.
Market Momentum: The increase in yields has pushed the 10-Year Treasury above its 100-day moving average, indicating renewed market momentum, although it remains lower compared to earlier in the year.
Investor Monitoring: Analysts and investors are closely watching the yield curve for its potential impact on borrowing costs, investment strategies, and economic forecasts, especially with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) set to announce its latest rate decision.
ETFs to Watch: A variety of fixed income exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are highlighted for investors to monitor, including Treasury ETFs (e.g., TLT, IEF), Bond ETFs (e.g., AGG, BND), and Inflation Protection ETFs (e.g., TIP, VTIP).
Attention Retirees: Time for Your Year-End Portfolio Assessment—Here’s How to Proceed.
- Portfolio Review Importance: December is a crucial time for reviewing investment portfolios, especially in light of potential shifts in the investment landscape.
- Retiree Considerations: Retirees need to be proactive and cannot afford to manage their investments passively as they approach 2026.
US ETF Inflows Reach All-Time High—VOO, SPY, and QQQ Propel Big Three's Control of $13 Trillion Market
U.S. ETF Industry Growth: The U.S. ETF industry has reached a record $13.08 trillion in assets, with October alone seeing $186.19 billion in net inflows, marking the largest monthly increase ever and bringing year-to-date inflows to $1.14 trillion.
Market Consolidation: Despite the growth in the number of ETFs, the market is increasingly dominated by the top three providers—iShares, Vanguard, and SPDR—who collectively hold 72.1% of U.S. ETF assets.
Top Performing ETFs: The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) led October inflows with $17.74 billion, followed by SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ), reflecting strong investor interest in both equity and tech-focused funds.
Diverse Inflows Across Asset Classes: Inflows were also significant in fixed-income and alternative assets, with notable contributions from iShares U.S. Treasury Bond ETF and iShares Bitcoin Trust, indicating a broad interest in various investment strategies amid market volatility.
U.S. SEC Investigating Remaining Concerns in Treasury Clearing Regulations
SEC's Investigation: The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is examining issues related to the implementation of a new rule requiring most U.S. Treasury market transactions to be cleared centrally, with a focus on inter-affiliate transaction requirements.
New Clearing Mandates: In December 2023, the SEC introduced mandates for market participants to clear U.S. Treasuries through an approved Covered Clearing Agency, while also delaying implementation due to concerns from market participants about preparation time.
Inter-Affiliate Exemption: The SEC is considering expanding the exemption for inter-affiliate transactions, which may currently be too restrictive, to include cash transactions and other types of affiliates, recognizing the importance of these trades for liquidity and collateral management.
Ongoing Efforts: SEC Commissioner Mark Uyeda emphasized that while progress has been made on the Treasury Clearing Rules, further work is needed, and the SEC aims to provide clarity and potential amendments to support market participants in their implementation efforts.
