BlackSky Short Interest Rises to 24.6%
Welcome to this week's installment of "The Short Interest Report" - The Fly's weekly recap of short interest trends among some of the most widely followed high-short-float stocks. Using the data from our partner, which utilizes the latest information from stock lenders to estimate short interest changes for thousands of publicly traded companies, this report will screen for some of biggest changes in short interest as a percentage of free float and days-to-cover ratios while also considering the short interest data on some of the more volatile and heavier-traded names of the week. Based on the availability of data from Ortex, the report tracks the trading period that covers prior Friday through Thursday of this week, excluding holidays. As a basis of comparison for stocks discussed below, the S&P 500 index was down 2.5%, the Nasdaq Composite was down 3.8%, the Russell 2000 index was down 0.5, the Russell 2000 Growth ETFwas down 1.3% and the Russell 2000 Value ETFwas flat in the five-day trading session range through June 11.SHORT INTEREST GAINERSOrtex-reported short interest in BlackSky Technologytroughed at a 9-month low of just below 20% on May 26 as the stock price was rounding out a nearly 3-times swing since the start of the year and a quadrupling since November lows. A timely downgrade from Jefferies suggesting that the excitement regarding space-themed stocks heading into the SpaceX IPO could be misplaced grounded the stock, however, and shares have since shed nearly 40% from their May 28 peak while also sparking renewed bearish interest. This week, short interest as a percentage of free float lifted from 21.9% to a three-month high of 24.6%, days-to-cover rose from 3.3 to 3.6 while the stock price fell 9.3%, with another 10% retreat on Friday. Year-to-date, BlackSky is still up a hefty 73%.Ortex-reported short interest in Summit Therapeuticstroughed just under 21% on May 18, rising gradually over the subsequent three weeks and then spiking sharply over the past few sessions. In the five-day period covered through Friday, Summit Therapeutics' short interest as a percentage of free float spiked from 22.7% to 28.0% - a three-week high. With a pick-up in trading volume over the past 10 trading days, days-to-cover on the name is up more incrementally, rising from 7.5 to 8.5 – a two-week high. The stock was off by 12% this week at a two-year-low, with the selloff gathering steam after the company's $500M equity offering. Shares also remain down 23% year-to-date.Ortex-reported short interest on Bobs Discount Furniturepeaked at a record-high of 28% on May 15, receded to 20% over the next two weeks, but has since bounced back toward those highs in June with rangebound price action in shares soothing any potential concerns of a violent short squeeze. This week, shorts as a percentage of free float rose from 23.7% to 27.5% and days-to-cover ticked up from 5.5 to 6.5. The stock was up about 2% in the five-day period covered but remains down 18% year to date. Assuming Friday's 3% gains hold, Bobs Discount is now down 19% from its IPO pricing level of $17.Ortex-reported short interest in Avis Budgettroughed at one-year lows around 35% on May 21 as bears took profits in conjunction with shares giving back the vast majority of their whopping 800% March-April gains. The stock appears to have found some footing, however, and while the advance from mid-May lows is far more gradual, shorts are accumulating into strength. This week, short interest as a percentage of free float rose from 39.6% to 45.8%, days-to-cover increased from 2.1 to 2.5%, and the stock advanced 9.7% in the five-day period through Thursday. Year-to-date, Avis Budget is now up 45%.SHORT INTEREST DECLINERSOrtex-reported short interest in HighPeak Energypeaked at a record high of 42.3% in the first week of June but fell sharply this week, sliding all the way down to a two-month low of 29%. Days-to-cover on the name also retreated by a meaningful margin, falling from 9.5 to 7.1 – a three-year low. A build-up in short exposure against the backdrop of higher energy prices boosting the sector may have finally culminated in a sharper short-squeeze outflow for the bears. While shares of HighPeak slipped about 3% in the five-day period through Thursday, the stock up 65% year-to-date and up 51% since the start of the Iran war.
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- Market Opportunity: BlackSky is attempting to move beyond satellite imagery to establish an AI-powered intelligence business, addressing the increasing demand from government clients for answers rather than raw data, thereby enhancing its market competitiveness.
- Investor Considerations: While the transformation presents an enticing opportunity, investors must weigh the potential upside against dilution, losses, and execution risks, especially since the stock already reflects expectations of future success, impacting their investment decisions.
- Financial Risks: The company faces risks of losses and dilution that could negatively affect its stock price, particularly in a scenario where market expectations for its future profitability are high, potentially leading to a cautious investor sentiment.
- Execution Challenges: As BlackSky undergoes this transformation, it must effectively manage execution risks to ensure that its AI-driven intelligence business can successfully launch and achieve sustainable growth, securing its position in a highly competitive market.
- Market Opportunity: BlackSky is striving to move beyond satellite imagery to build an AI-powered intelligence business, as government customers increasingly seek answers rather than raw data, making this transformation appealing.
- Investment Risks: Although market expectations for future success are already reflected in the stock price, investors need to weigh potential dilution, losses, and execution risks, which could impact the company's long-term growth potential.
- Competitive Analysis: Analysts note that BlackSky did not make the Motley Fool Stock Advisor's list of the 10 best stocks, indicating a cautious market sentiment regarding its future performance, which may affect investor confidence.
- Historical Review: Looking back, companies like Netflix and Nvidia, which were once on recommended lists, achieved massive returns, and BlackSky must work hard to prove its investment value to avoid being overlooked by the market.
- Surge in Launches: Rocket Lab's Electron rocket has launched 10 times in 2023 and is projected to reach 16 launches in 2024 and 21 in 2025, demonstrating strong growth potential in the small satellite launch market, particularly with clients like NASA and the U.S. Space Development Agency.
- Strategic Business Expansion: By acquiring laser communications provider Mynaric, Rocket Lab aims to evolve into an 'end-to-end' space services company, and it has secured its largest contract worth $816 million to design and manufacture 18 satellites, further solidifying its position in the satellite defense sector.
- Revenue Growth Expectations: Analysts forecast Rocket Lab's revenue to surge from $602 million in 2025 to $1.59 billion by 2028; while these estimates should be taken with caution, they indicate significant growth potential in the nascent space exploration market.
- Optimistic Valuation Outlook: With a market cap of $63 billion, Rocket Lab trades at 68.5 times this year's sales, projected to drop to 39.5 times by 2028, suggesting that while it may not be a bargain, its potential transformation into a space services giant could justify its premium valuation.
- Contract Modification Accelerates Development: BlackSky has received a modification to its NRO contract, funding the accelerated development of AROS satellites expected to achieve multi-spectral large-area imaging by 2028, positioning itself as a critical commercial alternative to existing suppliers and enhancing market competitiveness.
- Technological Innovation and Applications: The AROS satellites will support national-scale digital mapping, navigation, and maritime situational awareness applications, integrating with the existing fleet to leverage AI capabilities for improved data processing efficiency, addressing the growing market demand.
- Strategic Partnership and Market Positioning: Collaboration with the U.S. government secures America's position in global space competitiveness, as BlackSky plans to develop high-performance geospatial foundation data satellites using its Gen-3 architecture and agile manufacturing capabilities to fill market gaps.
- Real-Time Data Processing Capabilities: The new system architecture will showcase a proprietary data pipeline designed to support real-time and retrospective AI analytics, expected to expedite the automated production of navigation safety applications, enhancing efficiency in customer workflows.
- IPO Pricing and Valuation: SpaceX is set to go public on June 12 at a share price of $135, achieving a valuation of $1.77 trillion, with an initial public offering price-to-sales ratio of approximately 95 times, indicating strong market expectations for its future growth.
- Revenue Performance: In 2025, SpaceX generated $18.7 billion in revenue, and while Morningstar valued it at $780 billion, the IPO pricing still reflects investor confidence and keen interest in the space sector.
- Competitive Landscape Analysis: Against the backdrop of SpaceX's IPO, companies like Planet Labs, BlackSky, and Redwire are also vying for investor attention, although their valuations are generally lower than SpaceX's, highlighting the demand for diversified investment opportunities in the space industry.
- Market Risk Advisory: Despite the potential of the space sector, investors should be aware that these companies are still in early stages, facing significant volatility and risks, particularly as Redwire and BlackSky have yet to achieve profitability, which may impact their long-term investment appeal.
- SpaceX IPO Plans: SpaceX is set to go public on June 12 at a share price of $135, achieving a valuation of $1.77 trillion, making it a focal point in the market, with plans to trade under the ticker SPCX on Nasdaq.
- Revenue vs. Valuation: In 2025, SpaceX generated $18.7 billion in revenue, with its IPO valuation projected at about 95 times sales, while Morningstar values it at $780 billion, indicating differing market perspectives on its growth potential.
- Alternative Investment Opportunities: Beyond SpaceX, companies like Planet Labs, BlackSky, and Redwire offer exposure to space and AI, with Planet Labs reporting a 42% year-over-year revenue increase to $94.2 million in Q1 2027, reflecting strong market demand.
- BlackSky and Redwire Performance: BlackSky secured up to $160 million in new contracts in Q1 2026, generating $20.8 million in revenue, trading at 12 times sales; meanwhile, Redwire's revenue surged 58% year-over-year to $97 million, despite losses, trading at 7 times sales, indicating attractive valuation potential.









