Barclays Abandons Fed Rate Cut Forecast
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 4 days ago
0mins
Source: Yahoo Finance
- Rate Forecast Revision: Barclays has abandoned its 2023 Fed rate cut forecast, now expecting the central bank to hold rates steady until 2026, with a potential 25-basis-point cut in March 2027, reflecting concerns over inflation progress.
- Oil Price Impact: Barclays' energy strategist projects Brent crude to peak at $115 per barrel this quarter before gradually declining to $100, while WTI is expected to peak at $105 in Q2, averaging $93 in 2026, indicating persistent inflationary pressures from high oil prices.
- Inflation Expectations Raised: Barclays has raised its 2026 Q4 PCE inflation forecast to 3.8%, 0.7 percentage points higher than previously estimated, with core PCE inflation also adjusted to 3.1%, highlighting ongoing inflationary pressures.
- GDP Growth Downgrade: Barclays has cut its 2026 GDP growth forecast by 0.3 percentage points to 2.1%, yet the resilient labor market suggests the Fed lacks justification for rate cuts in the near term.
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About BCS
Barclays PLC is a diversified bank with five divisions comprising Barclays UK, Barclays UK Corporate Bank, Barclays Private Bank and Wealth Management, Barclays Investment Bank and Barclays US Consumer Bank. The Barclays UK division represents businesses that sit within the United Kingdom ring-fenced bank, Barclays Bank UK PLC and its subsidiaries, and comprises Personal Banking, UK Business Banking and Barclaycard Consumer UK. The Barclays UK Corporate Bank division offers lending, trade and working capital, liquidity, payments, and FX solutions for corporate clients. Barclays Private Bank and Wealth Management division comprises the Private Bank, Wealth Management, and Investments businesses. Barclays Investment Bank division incorporates the Global Markets, Investment Banking, and International Corporate Banking businesses. Barclays US Consumer Bank division represents the United States credit card business, focused on the partnership market, as well as an online deposit franchise.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Government Response Measures: Prime Minister Keir Starmer has outlined a five-point plan that includes over £100 in energy bill cuts per household, extended fuel duty cuts until September, and £53 million for heating oil support, aimed at alleviating economic pressure on families.
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- High Leverage Risks: The report emphasizes that private credit borrowers exhibit high leverage concentrated in sectors like technology, healthcare, and services, remaining largely untested during economic downturns, which may signal deteriorating credit conditions.
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See More
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- Class Action Preparation: The firm is preparing a class action lawsuit against Barclays, allowing investors to seek compensation without any out-of-pocket costs, aiming to safeguard investor rights and recover losses incurred.
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