Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Q1 Earnings Preview
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Apr 27 2026
0mins
Source: seekingalpha
- Earnings Announcement Date: Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (ARI) is set to announce its Q1 2023 earnings on April 28th after market close, with a consensus EPS estimate of $0.29, reflecting a 20.8% year-over-year increase, indicating stability in profitability.
- Revenue Decline Forecast: The expected revenue for Q1 is $45.5 million, representing a 30.9% year-over-year decline, which highlights challenges the company faces in the current market environment and may impact future investment strategies and market confidence.
- Historical Performance Review: Over the past two years, ARI has exceeded EPS estimates 88% of the time and revenue estimates 25% of the time, indicating a high level of reliability in its earnings forecasts.
- Business Model Shift: Following the sale of its loan portfolio, Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance is adjusting its business model, which could affect its future financial performance and market positioning.
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Analyst Views on ARI
Wall Street analysts forecast ARI stock price to fall
2 Analyst Rating
1 Buy
0 Hold
1 Sell
Hold
Current: 10.990
Low
9.50
Averages
10.75
High
12.00
Current: 10.990
Low
9.50
Averages
10.75
High
12.00
About ARI
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. is a real estate investment trust. The Company primarily originates, acquires, invests in and manages performing commercial first mortgage loans, subordinate financings and other commercial real estate-related debt investments. Its principal business objective is to acquire its target assets in order to provide attractive risk- adjusted returns to its stockholders over the long term, primarily through dividends and secondarily through capital appreciation. Its investment strategy is to identify opportunities within its target assets through its manager and its affiliates as well as their platform, which integrates real estate experience with private equity and capital markets in transaction sourcing, underwriting, execution, asset operation, management and disposition. It targets assets that are secured by real estate throughout the United States and Europe. The Company is externally managed and advised by ACREFI Management, LLC.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Cura Wealth Advisors Sells Shares of ARI
- Trade Size Reduction: Cura Wealth Advisors sold 386,000 shares of Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (NYSE: ARI) in Q1 2026, with an estimated trade value of $4.02 million, reflecting a cautious stance towards commercial real estate risks.
- Position Value Decline: The value of the ARI position decreased by $3.35 million by quarter-end, indicating the dual impact of trading activity and valuation shifts, leaving a total of 437,233 shares valued at $4.62 million.
- Asset Allocation Adjustment: This sale reduced Cura's ARI stake from 1.4% to less than 0.3% of assets, suggesting a strategic move to dial back risk exposure amid rising interest rates and refinancing uncertainties.
- Fundamental Stability: Despite challenges, Apollo reported a stable Q1 with net income of $0.16 per share and distributable earnings of $0.22, with no realized investment losses, indicating relative stability in a volatile market environment.
See More
Cura Wealth Advisors Reduces Apollo Holdings by 386,000 Shares
- Share Reduction Details: Cura Wealth Advisors disclosed in an SEC filing on May 8, 2026, that it sold 386,000 shares of Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, an estimated $4.02 million trade, indicating a cautious stance towards commercial real estate exposure.
- Holding Proportion Change: Following the sale, Cura's stake in Apollo decreased to 437,233 shares valued at approximately $4.62 million, now accounting for 2.07% of its assets under management, reflecting a reassessment of market risks.
- Market Performance Analysis: As of May 7, 2026, Apollo's share price stood at $10.91, up 16% over the past year, yet significantly lagging behind the S&P 500's approximately 30% gain, highlighting investor concerns about the company's outlook.
- Financial Stability: Despite facing high interest rates and refinancing uncertainties, Apollo reported a first-quarter net income of $0.16 per diluted share and distributable earnings of $0.22 per share, with no realized investment losses, indicating relative stability in its fundamentals.
See More
Waterfall Asset Management Fully Exits ARI Position
- Full Exit from Holdings: Waterfall Asset Management completely sold its 569,000 shares in Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (ARI) during Q1 2026, with an estimated transaction value of $5.92 million, indicating a full exit from a position in a market perceived as uncertain.
- Quarterly Performance Overview: ARI reported a net income of $0.16 per diluted share and distributable earnings of $0.22 per share in Q1, revealing that while cash flow remains steady, growth has been muted, reflecting challenges in the market environment.
- Market Performance Comparison: Although ARI's stock price increased by approximately 15% over the past year, it significantly lagged behind the S&P 500's roughly 30% return, highlighting its relative weakness in investor sentiment.
- Portfolio Adjustment: Waterfall's remaining top holdings are focused on apartment REITs and residential-linked companies, suggesting a strategic preference for sectors with clearer fundamentals to navigate the current market uncertainties.
See More
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Q1 2026 Earnings Report
- Successful Asset Sale: Apollo completed the sale of a $9 billion loan portfolio on April 24, resulting in approximately $1.3 billion in cash assets, demonstrating management's commitment to enhancing shareholder value.
- Strong Financial Performance: For Q1 2026, net income was $23 million, translating to $0.16 per diluted share, while distributable earnings reached $31 million, reflecting the company's resilience and profitability amid market fluctuations.
- Stock Buyback Program: The company has initiated a new stock repurchase program with an authorization of up to $150 million, having repurchased approximately 6.8 million shares to date, indicating confidence in the company's future value.
- REO Asset Management Strategy: Among the remaining four REO assets, the Brook apartment and Mayflower Hotel represent 80% of net equity value, with stabilization expected by summer, as management actively explores optimal exit strategies to maximize asset value.
See More
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Q1 2026 Earnings Call Insights
- Asset Restructuring Progress: Apollo Commercial Real Estate completed the sale of a $9 billion loan portfolio on April 24, leaving approximately $1.3 billion in cash and four REO assets valued at around $900 million, indicating proactive asset restructuring aimed at delivering attractive returns for shareholders.
- Dividend Policy Update: Management intends to continue paying quarterly dividends with a target annualized yield of approximately 8% on book value per share, with future dividends likely to include a significant return of capital component, reflecting the company's commitment to shareholder returns and strategic flexibility.
- Financial Performance Overview: For Q1 2026, Apollo reported net income of $23 million or $0.16 per diluted share, with distributable earnings of $31 million or $0.22 per diluted share; despite a slight decline in net interest income, the overall financial condition remains robust, showcasing the company's resilience amid market volatility.
- Unclear Strategic Direction: Management did not provide explicit EPS or revenue guidance, emphasizing flexibility in capital allocation during the strategy evaluation period, with significant progress expected in the coming months, indicating a cautious approach in an uncertain market environment.
See More
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Reports Q1 Earnings Miss and Revenue Beat
- Earnings Performance: Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (ARI) reported Q1 earnings per share (EAD) of $0.22, missing expectations by $0.07, indicating a decline in profitability that may affect investor confidence.
- Revenue Results: The company generated $58.63 million in revenue for Q1, a 10.9% year-over-year decline, yet it exceeded market expectations by $13.13 million, suggesting some resilience in market demand despite challenges.
- Stock Buyback Program: The board approved a stock repurchase program of up to $150 million, aimed at enhancing earnings per share by reducing the number of shares outstanding, reflecting the company's confidence in its intrinsic value.
- Dividend Declaration: Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance declared a dividend of $0.25 per share, demonstrating a commitment to shareholders despite the disappointing earnings, which may attract investors seeking stable returns.
See More
Cura Wealth Advisors Sells Shares of ARI
- Trade Size Reduction: Cura Wealth Advisors sold 386,000 shares of Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (NYSE: ARI) in Q1 2026, with an estimated trade value of $4.02 million, reflecting a cautious stance towards commercial real estate risks.
- Position Value Decline: The value of the ARI position decreased by $3.35 million by quarter-end, indicating the dual impact of trading activity and valuation shifts, leaving a total of 437,233 shares valued at $4.62 million.
- Asset Allocation Adjustment: This sale reduced Cura's ARI stake from 1.4% to less than 0.3% of assets, suggesting a strategic move to dial back risk exposure amid rising interest rates and refinancing uncertainties.
- Fundamental Stability: Despite challenges, Apollo reported a stable Q1 with net income of $0.16 per share and distributable earnings of $0.22, with no realized investment losses, indicating relative stability in a volatile market environment.
See More
Cura Wealth Advisors Reduces Apollo Holdings by 386,000 Shares
- Share Reduction Details: Cura Wealth Advisors disclosed in an SEC filing on May 8, 2026, that it sold 386,000 shares of Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, an estimated $4.02 million trade, indicating a cautious stance towards commercial real estate exposure.
- Holding Proportion Change: Following the sale, Cura's stake in Apollo decreased to 437,233 shares valued at approximately $4.62 million, now accounting for 2.07% of its assets under management, reflecting a reassessment of market risks.
- Market Performance Analysis: As of May 7, 2026, Apollo's share price stood at $10.91, up 16% over the past year, yet significantly lagging behind the S&P 500's approximately 30% gain, highlighting investor concerns about the company's outlook.
- Financial Stability: Despite facing high interest rates and refinancing uncertainties, Apollo reported a first-quarter net income of $0.16 per diluted share and distributable earnings of $0.22 per share, with no realized investment losses, indicating relative stability in its fundamentals.
See More
Waterfall Asset Management Fully Exits ARI Position
- Full Exit from Holdings: Waterfall Asset Management completely sold its 569,000 shares in Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (ARI) during Q1 2026, with an estimated transaction value of $5.92 million, indicating a full exit from a position in a market perceived as uncertain.
- Quarterly Performance Overview: ARI reported a net income of $0.16 per diluted share and distributable earnings of $0.22 per share in Q1, revealing that while cash flow remains steady, growth has been muted, reflecting challenges in the market environment.
- Market Performance Comparison: Although ARI's stock price increased by approximately 15% over the past year, it significantly lagged behind the S&P 500's roughly 30% return, highlighting its relative weakness in investor sentiment.
- Portfolio Adjustment: Waterfall's remaining top holdings are focused on apartment REITs and residential-linked companies, suggesting a strategic preference for sectors with clearer fundamentals to navigate the current market uncertainties.
See More
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Q1 2026 Earnings Report
- Successful Asset Sale: Apollo completed the sale of a $9 billion loan portfolio on April 24, resulting in approximately $1.3 billion in cash assets, demonstrating management's commitment to enhancing shareholder value.
- Strong Financial Performance: For Q1 2026, net income was $23 million, translating to $0.16 per diluted share, while distributable earnings reached $31 million, reflecting the company's resilience and profitability amid market fluctuations.
- Stock Buyback Program: The company has initiated a new stock repurchase program with an authorization of up to $150 million, having repurchased approximately 6.8 million shares to date, indicating confidence in the company's future value.
- REO Asset Management Strategy: Among the remaining four REO assets, the Brook apartment and Mayflower Hotel represent 80% of net equity value, with stabilization expected by summer, as management actively explores optimal exit strategies to maximize asset value.
See More
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Q1 2026 Earnings Call Insights
- Asset Restructuring Progress: Apollo Commercial Real Estate completed the sale of a $9 billion loan portfolio on April 24, leaving approximately $1.3 billion in cash and four REO assets valued at around $900 million, indicating proactive asset restructuring aimed at delivering attractive returns for shareholders.
- Dividend Policy Update: Management intends to continue paying quarterly dividends with a target annualized yield of approximately 8% on book value per share, with future dividends likely to include a significant return of capital component, reflecting the company's commitment to shareholder returns and strategic flexibility.
- Financial Performance Overview: For Q1 2026, Apollo reported net income of $23 million or $0.16 per diluted share, with distributable earnings of $31 million or $0.22 per diluted share; despite a slight decline in net interest income, the overall financial condition remains robust, showcasing the company's resilience amid market volatility.
- Unclear Strategic Direction: Management did not provide explicit EPS or revenue guidance, emphasizing flexibility in capital allocation during the strategy evaluation period, with significant progress expected in the coming months, indicating a cautious approach in an uncertain market environment.
See More
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Reports Q1 Earnings Miss and Revenue Beat
- Earnings Performance: Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (ARI) reported Q1 earnings per share (EAD) of $0.22, missing expectations by $0.07, indicating a decline in profitability that may affect investor confidence.
- Revenue Results: The company generated $58.63 million in revenue for Q1, a 10.9% year-over-year decline, yet it exceeded market expectations by $13.13 million, suggesting some resilience in market demand despite challenges.
- Stock Buyback Program: The board approved a stock repurchase program of up to $150 million, aimed at enhancing earnings per share by reducing the number of shares outstanding, reflecting the company's confidence in its intrinsic value.
- Dividend Declaration: Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance declared a dividend of $0.25 per share, demonstrating a commitment to shareholders despite the disappointing earnings, which may attract investors seeking stable returns.
See More
