Analysis of Stock Market Performance During Trump's Term
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 2h ago
0mins
Should l Buy NVDA?
Source: Yahoo Finance
- Significant Market Returns: During Trump's first term, the S&P 500 achieved a cumulative return of 70%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite saw returns of 57% and 142%, respectively, indicating a positive impact of his policies on the market.
- Historical Data Warning: The Shiller P/E ratio currently hovers between 39 and 41, historically indicating a 20% to 89% decline risk when surpassing 30, suggesting investors should remain cautious about potential downturns.
- Recession Correlation: Since 1913, all 10 Republican presidents have overseen economic recessions, while only 4 of the 9 Democratic presidents have avoided them, highlighting the potential influence of political factors on economic performance.
- Midterm Election Volatility: Historical data shows that the S&P 500 has averaged a 17.5% drawdown during midterm election years since 1950, which could lead to increased market volatility, necessitating investor attention to election outcomes and their potential market impacts.
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Analyst Views on NVDA
Wall Street analysts forecast NVDA stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for NVDA is 264.97 USD with a low forecast of 200.00 USD and a high forecast of 352.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
41 Analyst Rating
39 Buy
1 Hold
1 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 171.880
Low
200.00
Averages
264.97
High
352.00
Current: 171.880
Low
200.00
Averages
264.97
High
352.00
About NVDA
NVIDIA Corporation is a full-stack computing infrastructure company. The Company is engaged in accelerated computing to help solve the challenging computational problems. The Company’s segments include Compute & Networking and Graphics. The Compute & Networking segment includes its Data Center accelerated computing platforms and artificial intelligence (AI) solutions and software; networking; automotive platforms and autonomous and electric vehicle solutions; Jetson for robotics and other embedded platforms, and DGX Cloud computing services. The Graphics segment includes GeForce GPUs for gaming and PCs, the GeForce NOW game streaming service and related infrastructure, and solutions for gaming platforms; Quadro/NVIDIA RTX GPUs for enterprise workstation graphics; virtual GPU software for cloud-based visual and virtual computing; automotive platforms for infotainment systems, and Omniverse Enterprise software for building and operating industrial AI and digital twin applications.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Vista Equity Partners Leads $350 Million Funding in AI Chip Startup SambaNova Systems
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- Strong Investor Backing: Intel plans to invest approximately $100 million, potentially increasing to $150 million, indicating confidence in SambaNova's market potential for AI applications and reflecting a surge in demand for AI hardware.
- Intensifying Market Competition: The funding aims to position SambaNova against market leader Nvidia, particularly in the fast-evolving AI inference chip market, highlighting a growing investor interest in AI hardware amid competitive pressures.
- Company Growth Dynamics: Since its founding in 2017, SambaNova has raised over $1 billion, and despite facing challenges and layoffs in 2024, it recently surpassed its sales targets for the fiscal year, showcasing its potential in AI inference and cloud services.
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- Strong Investor Backing: Intel plans to invest approximately $100 million, potentially increasing to $150 million, indicating confidence in SambaNova's market potential for AI applications and reflecting a surge in demand for AI hardware.
- Intensifying Market Competition: The funding aims to position SambaNova against market leader Nvidia, particularly in the fast-evolving AI inference chip market, highlighting a growing investor interest in AI hardware amid competitive pressures.
- Company Growth Dynamics: Since its founding in 2017, SambaNova has raised over $1 billion, and despite facing challenges and layoffs in 2024, it recently surpassed its sales targets for the fiscal year, showcasing its potential in AI inference and cloud services.
See More
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- New Strategy in China: Starbucks has entered a joint venture with Boyu Capital, selling a 60% stake to rapidly expand, aiming to increase its presence in China from about 8,000 stores to 15,000 to 20,000, adapting to a fast-changing market environment.
- Profitability Under Pressure: Operating expenses rose by 9.2%, outpacing revenue growth of 5.5%, leading to a decline in operating margin from 11.9% to 9%, as the company faces challenges from labor investments, tariffs, and rising coffee prices.
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See More
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- Copilot User Surge: The user seats for Microsoft's AI assistant Copilot surged by 160% last quarter, with daily active users increasing tenfold, suggesting that the robust performance of its software business will further drive overall revenue growth.
- Meta's Advertising Growth Potential: Meta Platforms (META) has a forward P/E of just 23 times for 2026 despite a poor performance last year, with a 22% revenue growth in 2025 and a forecasted revenue increase of 26% to 34% in Q1, indicating a strong recovery in its advertising business.
- WhatsApp Advertising Opportunity: Meta is introducing ads on WhatsApp, which, despite having mostly low-monetizing international users, presents a significant revenue growth opportunity, while its new social platform Threads is still in early development, enhancing the company's long-term growth outlook.
See More
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- Long-Term Contracts: Cipher Mining has secured a $5.5 billion, 15-year lease with Amazon, indicating strong demand in the AI data center market, which is expected to provide the company with a stable long-term revenue stream.
- Crypto Business Growth: Cipher Mining's crypto mining revenue nearly tripled year-over-year to $71.7 million, and while still unprofitable, the operating loss decreased from $91.4 million to $37.6 million, showing positive progress towards profitability.
- Multi-GW Energy Pipeline: The company acquired a 200-megawatt site in Ohio, expected to energize by 2027, bringing its total energy pipeline to 3.4 GW, enhancing its competitive position among tech companies.
- Optimistic Market Outlook: According to Grandview Research, the AI market is projected to maintain a 30.6% compound annual growth rate through 2033, positioning Cipher Mining's AI data centers to benefit from this growth trend, further driving stock price appreciation.
See More
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- Strong January Performance: The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) surged 12% in January, reflecting robust market confidence in the semiconductor sector, particularly driven by TSMC's earnings and soaring memory prices, highlighting the ETF's significance in diversified investments.
- Memory Price Surge: According to Trendforce, traditional DRAM prices are expected to rise by 90% to 95% compared to the previous quarter, while NAND flash prices are projected to increase by 55% to 60%, indicating strong demand from AI infrastructure development, further boosting stocks like Micron.
- TSMC Capital Expenditure Outlook: Although TSMC is not part of the SOXX ETF, its forecast for capital spending of $52 billion to $56 billion in 2026, a 40% increase from 2025, underscores the long-term growth potential of the semiconductor industry, attracting investor interest.
- Market Volatility and Outlook: Despite a 4.6% decline in SOXX in February, capital expenditure forecasts from major cloud companies have exceeded market expectations, suggesting that AI infrastructure development will continue to grow strongly in 2026, positioning semiconductor stocks to benefit from this long-term trend.
See More
Traditional Companies Emerge in AI Wave
- Data Center Sales Surge: Texas Instruments reported a 70% increase in sales within the data center segment in 2025, indicating a rapid expansion in data center construction that boosts demand for its analog chips, thereby enhancing its competitive position in the AI market.
- Importance of Power Management: Texas Instruments' analog chips convert real-world signals into digital signals and manage power, ensuring reliable operation of data centers, which highlights their critical role in AI infrastructure.
- Hydrogen Solutions Advantage: Bloom Energy offers hydrogen power cells and electrolyzers that can deliver power to data centers faster than traditional electric utilities can build infrastructure, having already signed agreements with American Electric Power and Brookfield Asset Management to expand its sales channels in the AI sector.
- Attractiveness of Renewable Energy: Brookfield Renewable, a globally diversified clean energy company, collaborates with clients like Microsoft and Google to provide electricity, and its 5.2% dividend yield appeals to many investors, indicating potential growth in the AI industry.
See More
