Analysis of Lucid's 70% Stock Decline
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 1 hour ago
0mins
Should l Buy LCID?
Source: Fool
- Significant Delivery Shortfall: Lucid delivered only 4,369 vehicles in 2022, far below its promise of 20,000, with 6,001 in 2023 and an expected 10,241 in 2024, highlighting severe challenges in supply chain and market competition that have eroded investor confidence.
- Executive Turnover Impact: Founder Peter Rawlinson resigned in early 2025, and the lack of a new CEO has created uncertainty in leadership, potentially exacerbating market concerns about Lucid's future and its strategic execution capabilities.
- Government Support and Market Opportunities: Despite challenges, Lucid benefits from over 60% ownership by the Saudi Arabian Public Investment Fund and plans to deploy 20,000 autonomous Gravity SUVs in partnership with Uber and Nuro over the next six years, indicating potential growth opportunities in the market.
- Optimistic Future Revenue Projections: Analysts expect Lucid's revenue to grow from $1.3 billion in 2025 to $4.6 billion by 2027, primarily driven by increased sales of Air sedans and Gravity SUVs, although it must overcome production and market challenges to achieve profitability.
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Analyst Views on LCID
Wall Street analysts forecast LCID stock price to rise
6 Analyst Rating
1 Buy
4 Hold
1 Sell
Hold
Current: 10.280
Low
10.00
Averages
17.00
High
30.00
Current: 10.280
Low
10.00
Averages
17.00
High
30.00
About LCID
Lucid Group, Inc. is a technology company, which designs, engineers, and manufactures electric vehicles (EVs), EV powertrains, and battery systems in-house using its own equipment and factories. It sells vehicles directly to consumers through its retail sales network and through direct online sales. Its vehicles include Lucid Air and Lucid Gravity. Lucid Air is an advanced car, featuring powertrain technology. It offers 420 miles of the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)-estimated range, with an 84-kWh battery pack. The Lucid Air Sapphire is the highest-performance version of the Lucid Air, boasting 1,234 horsepower from three motors, 427 miles of an EPA-estimated range (when equipped with standard wheel covers). The Lucid Gravity provides the interior space and practicality of a full-size SUV within the exterior footprint of a mid-size SUV. It provides space for up to seven adults. It has engineered the Lucid Gravity to deliver up to 450 miles of EPA-estimated range.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Analysis of Lucid's 70% Stock Decline
- Significant Delivery Shortfall: Lucid delivered only 4,369 vehicles in 2022, far below its promise of 20,000, with 6,001 in 2023 and an expected 10,241 in 2024, highlighting severe challenges in supply chain and market competition that have eroded investor confidence.
- Executive Turnover Impact: Founder Peter Rawlinson resigned in early 2025, and the lack of a new CEO has created uncertainty in leadership, potentially exacerbating market concerns about Lucid's future and its strategic execution capabilities.
- Government Support and Market Opportunities: Despite challenges, Lucid benefits from over 60% ownership by the Saudi Arabian Public Investment Fund and plans to deploy 20,000 autonomous Gravity SUVs in partnership with Uber and Nuro over the next six years, indicating potential growth opportunities in the market.
- Optimistic Future Revenue Projections: Analysts expect Lucid's revenue to grow from $1.3 billion in 2025 to $4.6 billion by 2027, primarily driven by increased sales of Air sedans and Gravity SUVs, although it must overcome production and market challenges to achieve profitability.
See More
Lucid Group's Strategic Outlook for the Next Decade
- New Model Launch Plans: Lucid Group plans to release several new models in the coming years, particularly an electric SUV priced under $50,000, with production expected to start in late 2026 at its newly upgraded factory in Saudi Arabia, aiming to attract a broader consumer base and increase market share.
- Market Competition Pressure: Currently, Lucid's models are priced over $100,000, making them unaffordable for most consumers, while Tesla's Model 3 and Model Y account for 90% of its sales, indicating that Lucid must quickly adjust its strategy to remain competitive in the market.
- Strategic Shift Direction: Lucid's management has indicated a long-term goal of shifting sales focus from hardware to software, planning to supply advanced driving software to other EV manufacturers; however, the current financial constraints raise concerns about the feasibility of this transition, which is seen as crucial for long-term growth.
- Investor Focus: As Lucid gradually implements its strategic shift, investors should closely monitor its investments and developments in the software sector, particularly under the competitive pressure from rivals like Tesla, as the success of this pivot will directly impact its future market performance.
See More
Lucid Plans to Introduce Cheaper Models
- New Model Strategy: Lucid plans to introduce several new models over the next few years, including an SUV with a starting price under $50,000, aimed at attracting a broader consumer base to address its current high pricing issues and enhance market competitiveness.
- Production Timeline: Although Lucid has committed to starting production of the new models by late 2026, given the company's history of missing production milestones, this timeline may extend to 2027, reflecting its tight financial situation.
- Software and AI Development: Lucid's long-term strategy will shift focus towards software and artificial intelligence, aiming to gradually reduce hardware sales, emulating Tesla's successful model, and striving for a business transformation that enhances overall company value over the next decade.
- Market Competition Pressure: With Tesla's Model 3 and Model Y accounting for over 90% of sales, Lucid must accelerate the launch of more competitive models to ensure survival and growth in the EV market, especially in the face of challenges from competitors like Rivian.
See More
Analysis of Electric Vehicle Market Prospects
- Lucid Delivery Growth: Lucid delivered 15,841 vehicles in 2025, marking a 55% increase year-over-year, with over one-third of deliveries occurring in Q4, indicating strong market demand despite ongoing profitability challenges.
- Production Capacity Improvement: Lucid's Q4 production surged 116% sequentially and 148% year-over-year, demonstrating significant progress in resolving production bottlenecks, which is expected to further drive future delivery records.
- Nio Delivery Milestone: Nio's Q4 deliveries exceeded 326,000 vehicles, a nearly 72% increase year-over-year, with December achieving a new monthly high, showcasing robust growth momentum despite fierce price competition in the EV market.
- Profitability Outlook Enhancement: Nio anticipates an adjusted operating profit between $100 million and $172 million for Q4 2025, marking a significant step towards achieving the necessary scale for future profitability.
See More
Lucid and Nio Deliveries Surge Significantly
- Lucid Delivery Growth: Lucid delivered 15,841 vehicles in 2025, marking a 55% increase year-over-year, with over one-third of deliveries occurring in Q4, indicating strong momentum in the EV market despite ongoing profitability challenges.
- Production Capacity Boost: Lucid's Q4 production surged 116% sequentially and 148% year-over-year, demonstrating the company's ability to effectively ramp up production of its newly launched Gravity SUV after resolving bottlenecks, setting the stage for future delivery records.
- Nio Delivery Milestone: Nio delivered over 326,000 vehicles in Q4 2025, a nearly 72% increase year-over-year, achieving a new monthly delivery record in December, showcasing its robust growth potential in the EV market despite fierce price competition.
- Improved Profit Outlook: Nio is expected to achieve an adjusted operating profit between $100 million and $172 million for Q4 2025, marking a significant step towards proving its ability to achieve economies of scale and future profitability, although it still faces risks associated with its battery swap network strategy.
See More
Electric Vehicle Market Outlook and Investment Opportunities
- Lucid Delivery Growth: Lucid delivered 15,841 vehicles in 2025, marking a 55% increase year-over-year, with over one-third of deliveries occurring in Q4, indicating strong momentum in the EV market despite ongoing profitability challenges.
- Production Capacity Boost: Lucid's Q4 production surged 116% sequentially from Q3 and 148% year-over-year, demonstrating effective resolution of production bottlenecks and setting the stage for continued record-breaking deliveries.
- Nio Delivery Milestone: Nio delivered over 326,000 vehicles in Q4 2025, a nearly 72% increase year-over-year, achieving a new monthly high of 48,135 vehicles in December, showcasing robust growth driven by new sub-brands despite fierce market competition.
- Improving Profit Outlook: Nio is projected to achieve an adjusted operating profit between $100 million and $172 million for Q4, marking a significant step towards profitability, with plans to break even on an adjusted basis by 2026, boosting investor confidence.
See More
Analysis of Lucid's 70% Stock Decline
- Significant Delivery Shortfall: Lucid delivered only 4,369 vehicles in 2022, far below its promise of 20,000, with 6,001 in 2023 and an expected 10,241 in 2024, highlighting severe challenges in supply chain and market competition that have eroded investor confidence.
- Executive Turnover Impact: Founder Peter Rawlinson resigned in early 2025, and the lack of a new CEO has created uncertainty in leadership, potentially exacerbating market concerns about Lucid's future and its strategic execution capabilities.
- Government Support and Market Opportunities: Despite challenges, Lucid benefits from over 60% ownership by the Saudi Arabian Public Investment Fund and plans to deploy 20,000 autonomous Gravity SUVs in partnership with Uber and Nuro over the next six years, indicating potential growth opportunities in the market.
- Optimistic Future Revenue Projections: Analysts expect Lucid's revenue to grow from $1.3 billion in 2025 to $4.6 billion by 2027, primarily driven by increased sales of Air sedans and Gravity SUVs, although it must overcome production and market challenges to achieve profitability.
See More
Lucid Group's Strategic Outlook for the Next Decade
- New Model Launch Plans: Lucid Group plans to release several new models in the coming years, particularly an electric SUV priced under $50,000, with production expected to start in late 2026 at its newly upgraded factory in Saudi Arabia, aiming to attract a broader consumer base and increase market share.
- Market Competition Pressure: Currently, Lucid's models are priced over $100,000, making them unaffordable for most consumers, while Tesla's Model 3 and Model Y account for 90% of its sales, indicating that Lucid must quickly adjust its strategy to remain competitive in the market.
- Strategic Shift Direction: Lucid's management has indicated a long-term goal of shifting sales focus from hardware to software, planning to supply advanced driving software to other EV manufacturers; however, the current financial constraints raise concerns about the feasibility of this transition, which is seen as crucial for long-term growth.
- Investor Focus: As Lucid gradually implements its strategic shift, investors should closely monitor its investments and developments in the software sector, particularly under the competitive pressure from rivals like Tesla, as the success of this pivot will directly impact its future market performance.
See More
Lucid Plans to Introduce Cheaper Models
- New Model Strategy: Lucid plans to introduce several new models over the next few years, including an SUV with a starting price under $50,000, aimed at attracting a broader consumer base to address its current high pricing issues and enhance market competitiveness.
- Production Timeline: Although Lucid has committed to starting production of the new models by late 2026, given the company's history of missing production milestones, this timeline may extend to 2027, reflecting its tight financial situation.
- Software and AI Development: Lucid's long-term strategy will shift focus towards software and artificial intelligence, aiming to gradually reduce hardware sales, emulating Tesla's successful model, and striving for a business transformation that enhances overall company value over the next decade.
- Market Competition Pressure: With Tesla's Model 3 and Model Y accounting for over 90% of sales, Lucid must accelerate the launch of more competitive models to ensure survival and growth in the EV market, especially in the face of challenges from competitors like Rivian.
See More
Analysis of Electric Vehicle Market Prospects
- Lucid Delivery Growth: Lucid delivered 15,841 vehicles in 2025, marking a 55% increase year-over-year, with over one-third of deliveries occurring in Q4, indicating strong market demand despite ongoing profitability challenges.
- Production Capacity Improvement: Lucid's Q4 production surged 116% sequentially and 148% year-over-year, demonstrating significant progress in resolving production bottlenecks, which is expected to further drive future delivery records.
- Nio Delivery Milestone: Nio's Q4 deliveries exceeded 326,000 vehicles, a nearly 72% increase year-over-year, with December achieving a new monthly high, showcasing robust growth momentum despite fierce price competition in the EV market.
- Profitability Outlook Enhancement: Nio anticipates an adjusted operating profit between $100 million and $172 million for Q4 2025, marking a significant step towards achieving the necessary scale for future profitability.
See More
Lucid and Nio Deliveries Surge Significantly
- Lucid Delivery Growth: Lucid delivered 15,841 vehicles in 2025, marking a 55% increase year-over-year, with over one-third of deliveries occurring in Q4, indicating strong momentum in the EV market despite ongoing profitability challenges.
- Production Capacity Boost: Lucid's Q4 production surged 116% sequentially and 148% year-over-year, demonstrating the company's ability to effectively ramp up production of its newly launched Gravity SUV after resolving bottlenecks, setting the stage for future delivery records.
- Nio Delivery Milestone: Nio delivered over 326,000 vehicles in Q4 2025, a nearly 72% increase year-over-year, achieving a new monthly delivery record in December, showcasing its robust growth potential in the EV market despite fierce price competition.
- Improved Profit Outlook: Nio is expected to achieve an adjusted operating profit between $100 million and $172 million for Q4 2025, marking a significant step towards proving its ability to achieve economies of scale and future profitability, although it still faces risks associated with its battery swap network strategy.
See More
Electric Vehicle Market Outlook and Investment Opportunities
- Lucid Delivery Growth: Lucid delivered 15,841 vehicles in 2025, marking a 55% increase year-over-year, with over one-third of deliveries occurring in Q4, indicating strong momentum in the EV market despite ongoing profitability challenges.
- Production Capacity Boost: Lucid's Q4 production surged 116% sequentially from Q3 and 148% year-over-year, demonstrating effective resolution of production bottlenecks and setting the stage for continued record-breaking deliveries.
- Nio Delivery Milestone: Nio delivered over 326,000 vehicles in Q4 2025, a nearly 72% increase year-over-year, achieving a new monthly high of 48,135 vehicles in December, showcasing robust growth driven by new sub-brands despite fierce market competition.
- Improving Profit Outlook: Nio is projected to achieve an adjusted operating profit between $100 million and $172 million for Q4, marking a significant step towards profitability, with plans to break even on an adjusted basis by 2026, boosting investor confidence.
See More
