2 Vanguard Index Funds to Invest in Now — Wall Street Analysts Predict They Will Outperform the S&P 500 in the Next 10 Years
Goldman Sachs Forecast: Goldman Sachs projects the S&P 500 will return 6.5% annually over the next decade, while Asian and emerging-market stocks are expected to outperform with returns of 10.3% and 10.9%, respectively, in local currencies.
Investment Recommendations: Investors are advised to consider the Vanguard FTSE Pacific ETF and the Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF for exposure to Asian and emerging markets, despite the S&P 500's historical outperformance over the last decade.
Expense Ratios: Both Vanguard ETFs have a low expense ratio of 0.07%, making them cost-effective options for investors looking to diversify into international equities.
Caution on Predictions: The author expresses skepticism about Goldman Sachs' forecasts, citing past inaccuracies and emphasizing a preference for maintaining a larger portion of investment in U.S. stocks, particularly the S&P 500, due to its consistent long-term performance.
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- Portfolio Adjustment: Berkshire Hathaway's latest SEC 13F filing reveals a significant reduction in the number of stocks, indicating that new CEO Greg Abel may sell many of the stocks previously managed by Todd Combs, a change that, while unexpected, was not entirely surprising.
- Delta Airlines Reinvestment: Buffett's reinvestment in Delta Airlines after a six-year hiatus sees the holding's value increase from $2.6 billion to $3.0 billion, reflecting a 14.5% rise, showcasing Abel's early fondness for airline stocks, despite Buffett's non-involvement in this decision.
- Macy's Minor Stake: Buffett's investment in Macy's has grown from $55 million to $63 million, a 14.2% increase, although this position accounts for less than 0.02% of Berkshire's portfolio, indicating Buffett's ongoing interest in bargain-priced stocks and potential investment opportunities.
- Expansion in Japan: Berkshire continues to increase its stakes in Japan, with Mitsubishi's holding rising from 9.7% to 11.1% and Sumitomo's from 9.3% to 10.3%, suggesting that Abel's investment strategy in Japan is deepening, with the total value of six stocks nearing $46 billion.
- Significant Profit Growth: Japan's three major banks—Mitsubishi UFJ, Sumitomo Mitsui, and Mizuho—reported record annual profits, with Mitsubishi UFJ's net profit rising 30% year-over-year to 2.4 trillion yen, reflecting strong profitability; however, analysts warn that future earnings growth may slow.
- Impact of Rising Rates: Higher yen rates are improving lending margins and supporting net interest income, with Sumitomo Mitsui and Mizuho seeing profit increases of 34% and 41%, respectively, indicating that healthy corporate funding demand and stronger fee income are driving revenue growth.
- Sustainability Challenges: Despite strong current earnings, analysts note that rising credit costs and geopolitical risks could pressure future profitability, especially as global interest rates change, requiring banks to allocate more capital to support balance sheet expansion.
- Monitoring External Environment: Japanese banks are closely monitoring developments in the Middle East, with Mitsubishi UFJ's CEO stating that ongoing tensions could negatively impact earnings, while further rises in oil prices may also affect global economic growth.
- Earnings Report Preview: On Monday, companies including Agilysys, Gossamer Bio, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, XP, and Yalla Group Limited are set to release their earnings reports, drawing significant market attention to their performance.
- Market Reaction Expectations: Investor reactions to these earnings could lead to notable stock price fluctuations, particularly in the current economic climate where results exceeding or falling short of expectations may provoke strong market responses.
- Industry Impact Analysis: The earnings reports from these companies will provide critical data for their respective industries, especially in the technology and financial sectors, with analysts closely monitoring guidance on future market trends.
- Investor Focus: As earnings season approaches, investors will pay increased attention to these companies' profitability and growth potential to make more informed investment decisions.
- Portfolio Restructuring: Under Greg Abel's leadership, Berkshire Hathaway's equity portfolio underwent significant changes in the first three months, adding Delta Air Lines and Macy's, indicating a renewed focus on the airline and retail sectors.
- Massive Alphabet Stake Increase: Berkshire increased its stake in Google's parent company Alphabet by 224% in Q1, making it the company's seventh-largest holding with a market value of $16.6 billion, and the stock has rallied 38% since, showcasing the success of this decision.
- Reduction in Holdings: Abel dramatically cut the number of companies in the portfolio, selling off major stakes including Amazon and Visa, with Amazon's shares reduced from 10 million to 2.3 million, reflecting a significant strategic shift in investment focus.
- Return to Delta Airlines: Berkshire purchased 39.8 million shares of Delta Air Lines in Q1, currently valued at $2.8 billion, marking the company's first return to airline stocks since 2020, demonstrating confidence in the recovery of the airline industry.
- Target Revision: Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group announced an increase in its return on equity (ROE) target for fiscal 2026 from 9% to 12%, reflecting the company's confidence in future performance despite ongoing uncertainties in the business environment.
- Performance Exceeds Expectations: The company achieved its initial 9% ROE target in fiscal 2024, prompting management to reassess and raise its financial goals, indicating a stronger-than-expected business performance.
- Positive Market Reaction: During pre-market trading on Friday, MUFG shares rose by 0.43% to $18.56, signaling investor optimism regarding the company's outlook following the announcement.
- Historical Performance Review: MUFG reported an ROE of 11.3% for fiscal 2025, providing a solid foundation for its future financial targets and further enhancing market confidence in its growth potential.
- Tension in US-India Relations: The shift in the Trump administration's China policy has strained US-India relations, with experts noting India's concerns that the US may prioritize China as the main negotiating partner, thereby diminishing India's strategic role in the Indo-Pacific.
- Need for Enhanced Strategic Value: To counter potential marginalization, India must establish more tangible cooperation with the US in sectors such as defense, maritime security, and critical minerals, thereby enhancing its strategic value and ensuring its importance in US-China relations.
- Changes in Trade Policy: The Trump administration's trade policy has become more transactional, with a 25% penalty tariff imposed on India last year for allegedly profiting from cheap Russian oil, further deteriorating bilateral relations.
- Concerns Over G2 Concept: India's attention to the US-China summit has intensified, with fears that the so-called 'G2' concept may marginalize middle powers like India, impacting its voice and influence in international affairs.











