Upwork Issues Weak Q1 Guidance Despite Strong Q4 Earnings
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 28 2026
0mins
Should l Buy UPWK?
Source: seekingalpha
Upwork Inc. shares fell 14.85% as the company hit a 20-day low amid disappointing first-quarter guidance.
Despite reporting a strong fourth-quarter performance with revenue of $198.41 million, exceeding analyst expectations, Upwork's outlook for Q1 2026 is weak, projecting revenue between $192 million and $197 million, below the $200.83 million expected by analysts. This has raised concerns about potential softness in market demand, leading to a significant drop in share price.
The mixed results highlight the challenges Upwork faces in maintaining momentum despite a strong finish to the previous year. Investors are likely to remain cautious as they assess the company's ability to navigate the uncertain market landscape.
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Analyst Views on UPWK
Wall Street analysts forecast UPWK stock price to rise
11 Analyst Rating
7 Buy
4 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 12.760
Low
15.00
Averages
22.10
High
27.00
Current: 12.760
Low
15.00
Averages
22.10
High
27.00
About UPWK
Upwork Inc. operates a working marketplace, which connects businesses with independent talent. The Company's independent talent refers to the talent that includes independent professionals and agencies of varying sizes. The Company’s marketplace offerings are designed for clients looking to identify hiring. Its marketplace offerings provide clients with access to independent talent with verified work history on its work marketplace, as well as client feedback. They also receive perks, such as a verified client badge and highlighted job posts. Upwork Payroll is available to clients when they choose to work with talent that they engage through Upwork as employees. With Upwork Payroll, clients have access to third-party staffing providers to employ talent and meet their talent needs through its work marketplace. It offers two lines of service: managed services and enterprise solutions. Its managed services offer a service-led program management and full project lifecycle solution.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Upwork Announces $300 Million Share Buyback Program
- Buyback Program Initiated: Upwork's board has approved a new $300 million share repurchase program, following a previous $136 million buyback in 2025, aimed at enhancing shareholder value while supporting growth in AI and small to medium-sized businesses.
- Positive Market Performance: With major indices like Nasdaq and S&P 500 showing gains, Upwork's stock rose 6.90%, reflecting investor optimism despite its price remaining below both the 20-day and 100-day simple moving averages, indicating a bearish trend.
- Financial Outlook: Upwork is set to release its next financial update on May 4, 2026, with an EPS estimate of 26 cents and revenue forecast of $196.45 million, indicating potential for revenue growth even as EPS expectations have decreased.
- Analyst Ratings: The stock carries a 'Buy' rating with an average price target of $21.33, although UBS and Citigroup have lowered their targets, reflecting a cautious market sentiment regarding its future performance.
See More
Upwork Approves $300 Million Share Repurchase Program
- Repurchase Program Initiated: Upwork's board has approved a new $300 million share repurchase program, aimed at enhancing shareholder value and reflecting the company's confidence in future growth.
- Historical Buyback Data: In 2025, Upwork deployed $136 million to repurchase over 9 million shares, demonstrating the company's commitment to its capital return strategy.
- Flexible Repurchase Strategy: The new authorization has no expiration date and does not obligate the company to repurchase any specific amount of shares, with timing and volume to be adjusted based on market and business conditions.
- Positive Market Reaction: In pre-market trading, Upwork's stock rose by 5.48% to $13.46, indicating a positive investor response to the company's repurchase plan and an increase in market confidence.
See More
Upwork Board Approves $300M Share Repurchase Program
- Repurchase Program Approval: Upwork's board has approved a new $300 million share repurchase program aimed at enhancing shareholder value and boosting market confidence, which is expected to have a positive impact on the stock price.
- Previous Buyback Success: In 2025, Upwork deployed $136 million to repurchase over 9 million shares, demonstrating the company's confidence in its own valuation and laying the groundwork for future repurchase initiatives.
- Positive Stock Reaction: Following the announcement of the new repurchase program, Upwork's shares rose 8.7% in premarket trading to $13.87, reflecting market optimism regarding the company's future growth potential.
- Growth Target Outlook: Upwork anticipates a revenue growth target of 6%-8% for 2026, driven by momentum in AI and small to medium-sized businesses, further strengthening investor confidence in its long-term development.
See More
Upwork Announces $300 Million Share Repurchase Program
- Share Repurchase Program: Upwork has announced a $300 million share repurchase program, which is expected to further enhance shareholder value and boost market confidence.
- Stock Price Surge: Following the announcement of the repurchase program, Upwork's shares rose nearly 10% in pre-market trading on Wednesday, reflecting investor optimism about the company's future growth prospects.
- Strong Financial Performance: CEO Hayden Brown stated that 2025 was a pivotal year for Upwork, achieving GSV growth and delivering record financial results, indicating robust market demand.
- Ongoing Investment Strategy: The company plans to continue investing in key growth levers while maintaining a strong balance sheet, ensuring long-term sustainability and creating more value for shareholders.
See More
Upwork Announces New $300 Million Share Repurchase Program
- Repurchase Program Expansion: Upwork's board has approved a new $300 million share repurchase program, bringing the total repurchase authorizations to $600 million since November 2023, demonstrating the company's ongoing commitment to shareholder value.
- Strong Financial Performance: In 2025, Upwork achieved GSV growth and delivered record financial results, with CEO Hayden Brown highlighting that a robust balance sheet enables the company to return value to shareholders while continuing to invest in key growth areas.
- Market Adaptability: Upwork plans to accelerate GSV and revenue growth in 2026, further solidifying its leadership in providing highly skilled talent and AI-powered work solutions to meet the challenges of the AI era.
- Flexible Repurchase Strategy: The new repurchase authorization has no expiration date, allowing Upwork to adjust the timing and amount of repurchases based on market and business conditions, ensuring continued shareholder value enhancement in varying market environments.
See More
Upwork Shares Plunge 19% Amid Client Decline
- Client Decline: Upwork's active clients fell by 6% to 785,000, causing a stock price drop of over 19%, which understandably alarmed investors concerned about client retention.
- Revenue Growth: Despite the decline in active clients, Upwork reported a 4% year-over-year revenue increase in Q4, reaching $198.4 million, indicating resilience in revenue generation, particularly in expanding its small and midsize business market.
- AI Investment Returns: Upwork's aggressive investment in AI has paid off, with AI-powered search recommendations boosting GSV by over $100 million, and annualized GSV from AI-related work climbing over 50% to $300 million, showcasing the potential of technological investments.
- Optimistic Outlook: Upwork's guidance for 2026 includes projected revenue between $835 million and $850 million, with adjusted earnings per share expected to be between $1.43 and $1.48, reflecting confidence in future growth driven by diversification in AI and SMB sectors.
See More
Upwork Announces $300 Million Share Buyback Program
- Buyback Program Initiated: Upwork's board has approved a new $300 million share repurchase program, following a previous $136 million buyback in 2025, aimed at enhancing shareholder value while supporting growth in AI and small to medium-sized businesses.
- Positive Market Performance: With major indices like Nasdaq and S&P 500 showing gains, Upwork's stock rose 6.90%, reflecting investor optimism despite its price remaining below both the 20-day and 100-day simple moving averages, indicating a bearish trend.
- Financial Outlook: Upwork is set to release its next financial update on May 4, 2026, with an EPS estimate of 26 cents and revenue forecast of $196.45 million, indicating potential for revenue growth even as EPS expectations have decreased.
- Analyst Ratings: The stock carries a 'Buy' rating with an average price target of $21.33, although UBS and Citigroup have lowered their targets, reflecting a cautious market sentiment regarding its future performance.
See More
Upwork Approves $300 Million Share Repurchase Program
- Repurchase Program Initiated: Upwork's board has approved a new $300 million share repurchase program, aimed at enhancing shareholder value and reflecting the company's confidence in future growth.
- Historical Buyback Data: In 2025, Upwork deployed $136 million to repurchase over 9 million shares, demonstrating the company's commitment to its capital return strategy.
- Flexible Repurchase Strategy: The new authorization has no expiration date and does not obligate the company to repurchase any specific amount of shares, with timing and volume to be adjusted based on market and business conditions.
- Positive Market Reaction: In pre-market trading, Upwork's stock rose by 5.48% to $13.46, indicating a positive investor response to the company's repurchase plan and an increase in market confidence.
See More
Upwork Board Approves $300M Share Repurchase Program
- Repurchase Program Approval: Upwork's board has approved a new $300 million share repurchase program aimed at enhancing shareholder value and boosting market confidence, which is expected to have a positive impact on the stock price.
- Previous Buyback Success: In 2025, Upwork deployed $136 million to repurchase over 9 million shares, demonstrating the company's confidence in its own valuation and laying the groundwork for future repurchase initiatives.
- Positive Stock Reaction: Following the announcement of the new repurchase program, Upwork's shares rose 8.7% in premarket trading to $13.87, reflecting market optimism regarding the company's future growth potential.
- Growth Target Outlook: Upwork anticipates a revenue growth target of 6%-8% for 2026, driven by momentum in AI and small to medium-sized businesses, further strengthening investor confidence in its long-term development.
See More
Upwork Announces $300 Million Share Repurchase Program
- Share Repurchase Program: Upwork has announced a $300 million share repurchase program, which is expected to further enhance shareholder value and boost market confidence.
- Stock Price Surge: Following the announcement of the repurchase program, Upwork's shares rose nearly 10% in pre-market trading on Wednesday, reflecting investor optimism about the company's future growth prospects.
- Strong Financial Performance: CEO Hayden Brown stated that 2025 was a pivotal year for Upwork, achieving GSV growth and delivering record financial results, indicating robust market demand.
- Ongoing Investment Strategy: The company plans to continue investing in key growth levers while maintaining a strong balance sheet, ensuring long-term sustainability and creating more value for shareholders.
See More
Upwork Announces New $300 Million Share Repurchase Program
- Repurchase Program Expansion: Upwork's board has approved a new $300 million share repurchase program, bringing the total repurchase authorizations to $600 million since November 2023, demonstrating the company's ongoing commitment to shareholder value.
- Strong Financial Performance: In 2025, Upwork achieved GSV growth and delivered record financial results, with CEO Hayden Brown highlighting that a robust balance sheet enables the company to return value to shareholders while continuing to invest in key growth areas.
- Market Adaptability: Upwork plans to accelerate GSV and revenue growth in 2026, further solidifying its leadership in providing highly skilled talent and AI-powered work solutions to meet the challenges of the AI era.
- Flexible Repurchase Strategy: The new repurchase authorization has no expiration date, allowing Upwork to adjust the timing and amount of repurchases based on market and business conditions, ensuring continued shareholder value enhancement in varying market environments.
See More
Upwork Shares Plunge 19% Amid Client Decline
- Client Decline: Upwork's active clients fell by 6% to 785,000, causing a stock price drop of over 19%, which understandably alarmed investors concerned about client retention.
- Revenue Growth: Despite the decline in active clients, Upwork reported a 4% year-over-year revenue increase in Q4, reaching $198.4 million, indicating resilience in revenue generation, particularly in expanding its small and midsize business market.
- AI Investment Returns: Upwork's aggressive investment in AI has paid off, with AI-powered search recommendations boosting GSV by over $100 million, and annualized GSV from AI-related work climbing over 50% to $300 million, showcasing the potential of technological investments.
- Optimistic Outlook: Upwork's guidance for 2026 includes projected revenue between $835 million and $850 million, with adjusted earnings per share expected to be between $1.43 and $1.48, reflecting confidence in future growth driven by diversification in AI and SMB sectors.
See More
