MP Materials Faces Challenges Amid China's Export Control List
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jun 15 2025
0mins
Source: SeekingAlpha
MP Materials Corp's stock has declined 3.04% and hit a 20-day low, reflecting broader market weakness as the Nasdaq-100 is down 1.46% and the S&P 500 is down 0.21%.
The decline in MP Materials' stock is primarily due to being added to China's export control list, which has negatively impacted investor confidence. Despite this setback, the company has substantial upside potential, bolstered by a $400 million investment from the U.S. Department of Defense aimed at reducing reliance on Chinese rare earth materials, presenting strategic growth opportunities.
The implications of the export blacklist are significant, as they could limit MP Materials' production capabilities and market supply. However, with government support and a strong focus on protecting intellectual property, the company is positioned to navigate these challenges and capitalize on future opportunities.
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Analyst Views on MP
Wall Street analysts forecast MP stock price to rise
11 Analyst Rating
11 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 53.010
Low
55.27
Averages
76.13
High
94.00
Current: 53.010
Low
55.27
Averages
76.13
High
94.00
About MP
MP Materials Corp. produces specialty materials that are vital inputs for electrification and other advanced technologies. The Company owns and operates the Mountain Pass Rare Earth Mine and Processing Facility (Mountain Pass) located in California. It is also developing a rare earth metal, alloy and magnet manufacturing facility in Fort Worth, Texas (Independence Facility). The Company’s segments include Materials and Magnetics. The Materials segment operates Mountain Pass, which produces refined rare earth products as well as rare earth concentrate and related products. The Materials segment primarily generates revenue from sales of rare earth concentrate, primarily sold for further distribution to a single, principal customer in China, and sales of neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) oxide and metal, primarily sold to customers in Japan, South Korea, and broader Asia. The Magnetics segment operates the Independence Facility, where it produces magnetic precursor products.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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See More
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- Supply Chain Rebuilding: In the context of global efforts to rebuild critical minerals supply chains outside of China, Greenland Mines' initiatives respond to Western demands for reduced dependency, laying a foundation for future market expansion.
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See More
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- Policy Support for Manufacturing: The Trump administration's policies aim to encourage domestic manufacturing, particularly partnerships with key technology providers like Apple; if an agreement is reached, it would further scale Intel's foundry business and enhance its competitive position.
- Focus on Inference AI: As the market acknowledges the long-term growth potential of inference AI spending, Intel's role in CPU manufacturing is likely to be better recognized, which could create upside potential for its stock, especially following confirmation of a deal with Apple.
See More
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- Significant Stock Decline: USA Rare Earth's shares fell by 23% in June, driven by investor concerns over potential selling pressure linked to an S-3/A registration statement covering the resale of 93,822,662 shares, which constitutes 35.2% of the company's outstanding common stock.
- Impact of China's Export Controls: Late in June, China blacklisted USA Rare Earth, which may force the company to reassess its supply chains, despite not directly trading with China, potentially hindering its plans to ramp up magnet production and acquire rare-earth processing technology.
- Legal Dispute Risks: MP Materials has filed a lawsuit against USA Rare Earth, alleging theft of proprietary technology through a former employee, which, while common in the industry, poses a distraction that could impact the company's future operations and focus.
- Execution Risks and Shareholder Dilution: The events of June underscore the execution risks and potential for further shareholder dilution, which could exert ongoing pressure on the stock, despite the company's promising long-term prospects in securing a domestic supply of rare earth materials and magnets.
See More
Analysis of Investment Opportunities in Rare Earth Metals
- MP Materials Progress: MP Materials operates a rare earth metals mine in California and has processing facilities, achieving adjusted profits in Q1 2026, indicating its potential for sustainable profitability, which attracts long-term investor interest.
- USA Rare Earth Acquisition Moves: USA Rare Earth recently acquired a rare earth metals mine in South America and is building a new mine in Texas; while currently unprofitable, its aggressive acquisition strategy and processing capabilities in the U.S. and Europe show promising development prospects.
- The Metals Company Risks and Potential: The Metals Company plans to build an undersea mine, facing high risks and regulatory approval challenges, but its unique business model may attract investors seeking high growth potential, despite likely ongoing losses in the short term.
- Rare Earth Market Outlook: With increasing global demand for rare earth metals, particularly in electric vehicles and defense sectors, the developments of MP Materials, USA Rare Earth, and The Metals Company will provide crucial supply for the U.S. market, although investment risks remain high.
See More
