Mosaic Co (MOS) saw its stock price decline as it crossed below the 5-day SMA, reflecting ongoing challenges in the fertilizer market.
The company anticipates fourth-quarter phosphate sales of approximately 1.3 million tonnes and potash sales of about 2.2 million tonnes, reflecting the current weakness in the fertilizer market, which may negatively impact the company's performance. In response to weaker demand, Mosaic has adjusted its phosphate production plan and product mix, ensuring production volumes remain consistent with the prior quarter. The fourth quarter's cash flow is under pressure due to lower sales and increased inventory, highlighting the challenges the market environment poses to the company's financial health.
Despite these challenges, Mosaic expects global phosphate and potash shipments to reach record levels in 2026, indicating potential for future growth.
Wall Street analysts forecast MOS stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MOS is 32.38 USD with a low forecast of 24.00 USD and a high forecast of 43.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
13 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast MOS stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MOS is 32.38 USD with a low forecast of 24.00 USD and a high forecast of 43.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
6 Buy
7 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 28.040
Low
24.00
Averages
32.38
High
43.00
Current: 28.040
Low
24.00
Averages
32.38
High
43.00
Wells Fargo
Michael Sison
Equal Weight
downgrade
$28 -> $27
2026-01-23
Reason
Wells Fargo
Michael Sison
Price Target
$28 -> $27
AI Analysis
2026-01-23
downgrade
Equal Weight
Reason
Wells Fargo analyst Michael Sison lowered the firm's price target on Mosaic to $27 from $28 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm notes the company cut its Q4 volume expectation on Brazil softness and SSP curtailments. Near-term pressure persists, but Wells sees a firmer 2026 on tighter phosphate supply and Brazil demand recovery.
RBC Capital
Andrew Wong
Sector Perform
maintain
$27 -> $29
2026-01-20
Reason
RBC Capital
Andrew Wong
Price Target
$27 -> $29
2026-01-20
maintain
Sector Perform
Reason
RBC Capital analyst Andrew Wong raised the firm's price target on Mosaic to $29 from $27 and keeps a Sector Perform rating on the shares. Mosaic benefits from a constructive potash market, but the firm expects continued uncertainty into 2026 given that phosphate prices remain elevated but could decline, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Phosphate operations that may improve, but RBC sees margins negatively impacted by higher input costs, with soft Brazil ag conditions that may also impact Fertilizantes, the firm added.
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Mosaic
Oppenheimer
Outperform -> Perform
downgrade
2026-01-16
Reason
Mosaic
Oppenheimer
Price Target
2026-01-16
downgrade
Outperform -> Perform
Reason
Oppenheimer downgraded Mosaic to Perform from Outperform.
Oppenheimer
Outperform
to
Perform
downgrade
$35
2026-01-16
Reason
Oppenheimer
Price Target
$35
2026-01-16
downgrade
Outperform
to
Perform
Reason
Oppenheimer downgraded Mosaic to Perform from Outperform and removed the firm's previous $35 price target following the company's "weak" preliminary Q4 results. While the firm expects Mosaic to continue to make progress on its operating rate, there is "no clear catalyst for improving demand this crop year," says the analyst, who believes the backdrop of tight sulfur conditions will persist into the first half of 2026.
About MOS
The Mosaic Company is a producer and marketer of concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients. The Company’s segments include Phosphates, Potash and Mosaic Fertilizantes. The Phosphates segment sells phosphate-based crop nutrients and animal feed ingredients throughout North America and internationally. The Potash business segment owns and operates potash mines and production facilities in Canada and the United States, which produces potash-based crop nutrients, animal feed ingredients and industrial products, and is sold both in domestic and international. The Mosaic Fertilizantes Segment produces and sells phosphate- and potash-based crop nutrients, and animal feed ingredients, in Brazil. In addition to phosphate rock mines and chemical plants, this segment consists of sales offices, crop nutrient blending and bagging facilities, port terminals and warehouses in Brazil and Paraguay. This segment also serves as a distribution outlet for its Phosphates and Potash segments.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
