Methanex Reports $89 Million Loss in Q4 2025
Methanex Corp's stock fell sharply by 13.15% as it hit a 5-day low following the announcement of a significant quarterly loss.
The company reported a loss of $89 million in Q4 2025, translating to a loss of $1.15 per share, which is a significant decline from a profit of $45 million in the same quarter last year. Additionally, revenues increased by approximately 2% year-over-year to $968.8 million but fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $994.4 million, indicating weakened market demand and intensified competition. The disappointing earnings report has raised concerns about the company's profitability and future outlook, leading to a sharp decline in stock price.
This financial performance highlights the challenges Methanex faces in a competitive market, and the stock's decline may reflect investor concerns about its ability to navigate these pressures effectively.
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- Earnings Revision Trend: Zacks Director of Research Sheraz Mian highlights that despite a modest decline in Q2 earnings estimates, the overall revision trend remains positive, indicating market confidence in future profitability.
- Sector Performance Disparity: Since early April, sectors such as Energy, Tech, Basic Materials, Industrials, Utilities, and Business Services have seen upward revisions in earnings estimates, particularly in Energy and Tech, reflecting optimistic sentiment in these areas.
- Outstanding Individual Stocks: For instance, Dow (DOW) and LyondellBasell (LYB) have seen their Q2 EPS estimates double over the past month, while Methanex (MEOH) has increased by over 30%, showcasing strong performance in the current market environment.
- Negative Pressure Sectors: In contrast, sectors like Transportation, Autos, Medical, and Consumer Discretionary are facing renewed pressure on Q2 estimates, suggesting a cautious outlook that could impact stock performance in these areas.
- Strong Earnings Outlook: The overall earnings picture continues to improve, with positive revisions for Q2 2026 indicating enhanced market confidence, even as recent estimates have slightly declined, reflecting a resilient economic backdrop.
- Sector Performance Divergence: Since early April, sectors such as Energy, Tech, Basic Materials, Industrials, Utilities, and Business Services have seen upward revisions, particularly in Energy and Tech, highlighting a robust recovery in these areas.
- Notable Individual Stocks: EPS estimates for Dow (DOW) and LyondellBasell (LYB) have more than doubled in the past month, while Methanex (MEOH) has seen an increase of over 30%, indicating significant improvements in their earnings capabilities.
- Negative Pressure Emerging: Despite strong performances in certain sectors, Q2 estimates for Transportation, Autos, Medical, and Consumer Discretionary have faced renewed pressure since the beginning of the period, indicating ongoing market divergence and uncertainty.
- Strong Earnings Outlook: The overall earnings picture continues to improve, with positive revisions for Q2 2026 expectations indicating enhanced market confidence, even though recent estimates have slightly declined, reflecting a resilient economic backdrop.
- Sector Performance Divergence: Since early April, sectors such as Energy, Tech, Basic Materials, Industrials, Utilities, and Business Services have seen upward revisions in earnings expectations, particularly driven by the strong recovery potential in Energy and Tech sectors.
- Notable Stock Performance: Q2 EPS estimates for Dow (DOW) and LyondellBasell (LYB) have more than doubled in the past month, while Methanex (MEOH) has seen an increase of over 30%, showcasing robust performance amid current market conditions.
- Negative Pressure Emerging: Despite strong performances in certain sectors, Q2 estimates for Transportation, Autos, Medical, and Consumer Discretionary have come under renewed pressure since the start of the period, indicating market imbalances and potential risks.
- Share Reduction Transaction: Cyrus Capital Partners reduced its stake in Methanex by 81,516 shares during Q1 2026, with an estimated transaction value of $4.1 million, reflecting a decrease to 2.5% of its 13F AUM, indicating a strategy to lock in gains during a strong performance.
- Financial Performance Improvement: Methanex's Q1 adjusted EBITDA rose to $220 million from $186 million in the previous quarter, while adjusted net income improved to $23 million, suggesting strengthening fundamentals that may attract long-term investor interest.
- Production and Cash Flow Status: Methanex achieved a production volume of 2.39 million tonnes in Q1 and ended the quarter with $379 million in cash after repaying $60 million of debt, demonstrating robust financial management and potential for future growth.
- Optimistic Market Outlook: CEO Rich Sumner noted that disruptions in global petrochemical supply chains have driven methanol prices sharply higher, with expectations for significantly stronger Q2 EBITDA; if elevated methanol prices persist, Methanex's growth potential could be further enhanced.
- Stake Reduction: Cyrus Capital Partners sold 81,516 shares of Methanex in Q1 2026, with an estimated transaction value of $4.10 million, reflecting the fund's strategy to lock in gains during a strong market.
- Value Decline: The quarter-end value of Methanex's position decreased by $1.60 million due to both the share sale and stock price movements, indicating the impact of market volatility on the investment portfolio.
- Improved Financial Performance: Methanex's adjusted EBITDA rose to $220 million from $186 million in the previous quarter, while adjusted net income improved to $23 million, signaling strengthening fundamentals for the company.
- Optimistic Outlook: Management expressed optimism for the future, expecting significantly stronger second-quarter EBITDA; if methanol prices remain elevated, Methanex's global production capacity and improved balance sheet could provide additional growth opportunities.
- Demand Recovery Trend: The chemical industry is expected to benefit from a rebound in demand in the automotive and construction markets, particularly as the end of customer inventory destocking will further drive chemical demand growth following last year's lows.
- Strategic Measures Implementation: Industry participants are implementing strategic measures such as cost-cutting and price increases to counter rising raw material and logistics costs, thereby sustaining margins amid the current macroeconomic environment.
- Market Performance Analysis: Despite the chemical industry's 10.8% gain over the past year, which lags behind the S&P 500's 30.2% and the broader basic materials sector's 36.8%, its Zacks industry rank places it in the top 42%, indicating potential for future growth.
- Stock Outlook: Companies like Dow (DOW) and Albemarle (ALB) are projected to achieve significant earnings growth of 352.1% and 1,675.9% respectively for 2026, reflecting strong market confidence and investment potential.











