Kinsale Capital Receives Overweight Rating Amid Market Gains
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jul 02 2025
0mins
Should l Buy KNSL?
Source: NASDAQ.COM
Kinsale Capital Group Inc. shares fell 6.79% as it crossed below the 5-day SMA, despite the broader market strength with the Nasdaq-100 up 0.81% and S&P 500 up 0.50%.
The decline in Kinsale Capital's stock comes amid an optimistic forecast from analyst Hristian Getsov, who initiated coverage with an Overweight rating and a $490 price target, reflecting confidence in the company's future performance. This positive outlook contrasts with the stock's current price movement, indicating a potential sector rotation affecting Kinsale Capital.
Investors may want to consider the implications of this rating as Kinsale Capital navigates through market fluctuations, especially in light of the strong performance of the broader indices.
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Analyst Views on KNSL
Wall Street analysts forecast KNSL stock price to rise
11 Analyst Rating
3 Buy
8 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 374.000
Low
415.00
Averages
465.89
High
510.00
Current: 374.000
Low
415.00
Averages
465.89
High
510.00
About KNSL
Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. is a specialty insurance company that focuses on the excess and surplus lines (E&S) market in the United States. It writes E&S insurance on a non-admitted basis through its insurance subsidiary, Kinsale Insurance Company, which is authorized to write business in 50 states, the District of Columbia, the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, and the United States Virgin Islands. It also markets certain products through its subsidiary, Aspera Insurance Services, Inc., an insurance broker. Its core client focus is small- to medium-sized accounts. Its commercial lines offerings include commercial property, excess casualty, small business casualty, construction, general casualty, allied health, products liability, small business casualty, general casualty, construction, allied health, small business property, products liability, entertainment, energy, and all other commercial lines. Its personal lines offerings include high value homeowners and personal insurance.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Accident Rate Reduction: The rise of autonomous vehicles is projected to reduce accident rates by 75% to 90%, while current advanced driver-assistance systems can lower collision rates by 40%, directly impacting insurance claims and premium revenues.
- Valuation Pressure on Stocks: Analysts note that auto insurance accounts for over 90% of Progressive's insurance premiums, and the anticipated lower terminal growth rates could lead to significant declines in stock valuations, prompting investors to remain cautious.
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- Narrowing Net Loss: Although the company reported a net loss, it shrank from $0.42 to $0.29 per share, and free cash flow increased from $27 million to $37 million, reflecting improvements in financial health.
- Market Reaction Volatile: Despite exceeding Wall Street analysts' expectations, the stock surged 13.9% at the open before plummeting 6.8%, highlighting market concerns over high valuations, particularly with Lemonade's price-to-sales ratio at 8.9, significantly above the industry average of 1.4.
- Optimistic Future Outlook: Management issued revenue guidance for the next quarter above market expectations and set a breakeven target for fiscal year 2027, indicating potential for future growth despite the market's lukewarm response to its data-driven growth targets.
See More
Kinsale Capital Group Q4 2025 Earnings Highlights
- Significant Earnings Growth: Kinsale Capital Group reported diluted operating earnings per share of $5.81 for Q4 2025, reflecting a 25% increase from $4.62 in Q4 2024, demonstrating the company's ability to achieve profitability growth in a competitive market.
- Stable Premium Growth: Despite challenges in the commercial property segment, gross and net written premiums grew by 1.8% and 7.1%, respectively, with a notable 10.2% growth in gross written premiums excluding commercial property, indicating strong performance in other areas.
- Cost Control Advantage: Kinsale's expense ratio stood at 20.8%, significantly lower than industry peers, with the CEO emphasizing the company's low-cost business model and technological advantages, particularly through extensive AI applications that enhance operational efficiency.
- Capital Return and Dividend Increase: The company announced a $250 million share buyback authorization and raised its quarterly dividend from $0.17 to $0.25, reflecting management's confidence in future cash flows and commitment to shareholder returns.
See More
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- Earnings Growth Outlook: Arista Networks (ANET) reported strong demand for ethernet switches and routers in its quarterly results, now projecting a 25% revenue growth for the year, up from a previous target of 20%, highlighting the company's pivotal role in AI infrastructure spending.
- Stock Performance Excellence: Since May 2022, ANET's stock has outperformed the S&P 500 by 362%, reflecting strong market confidence in its growth potential, with CEO Ullal emphasizing the company's central role in mission-critical network transactions.
- Surge in Deferred Revenue: The company reported deferred revenue of $5.37 billion, indicating a growing backlog, and investors will closely monitor the conversion of multistage projects to ensure cash flow supports higher innovation spending.
- Positive Market Reaction: In pre-market trading, ANET's stock surged over 10%, demonstrating a positive market response to its robust performance and growth outlook, further solidifying its leadership position in the AI networking sector.
See More
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- Strong Earnings Performance: Kinsale Capital reported a Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of $5.81, beating expectations by $0.50, which highlights the company's robust profitability in the insurance market and boosts investor confidence.
- Significant Revenue Growth: The company achieved Q4 revenue of $483.27 million, reflecting a 17.3% year-over-year increase and surpassing market expectations by $15.89 million, indicating sustained growth momentum and strong market demand in its insurance business.
- Share Repurchase Program: Kinsale Capital authorized a $250 million share repurchase program aimed at enhancing EPS by reducing the number of outstanding shares, demonstrating the company's confidence in its value and commitment to shareholder returns.
- Solid Market Position: Kinsale Capital is recognized as a quality player in the E&S insurance sector, with its ongoing profitability and growth potential allowing it to maintain a leading position in a competitive market, attracting increased investor interest.
See More
Kinsale Capital Set to Release Q4 Earnings on February 12
- Earnings Announcement: Kinsale Capital is set to announce its Q4 2023 earnings on February 12 after market close, with a consensus EPS estimate of $5.31, reflecting a 14.9% year-over-year increase, indicating sustained profitability that could bolster investor confidence.
- Revenue Growth Expectations: The revenue is projected to reach $467.38 million, representing a 35.0% year-over-year growth, suggesting enhanced competitiveness and market share in the insurance sector, which may attract increased investor interest.
- Historical Performance: Kinsale has beaten EPS estimates 100% of the time over the past two years and surpassed revenue estimates 63% of the time, reinforcing market confidence in its financial health and future performance.
- Estimate Revision Trends: Over the last three months, EPS estimates have seen 6 upward revisions and 2 downward adjustments, while revenue estimates experienced 1 upward and 1 downward revision, indicating analysts' optimistic outlook on Kinsale's profitability and market performance.
See More
