HSBC Upgrades Lithium Argentina to Buy Amid Positive Lithium Market Outlook
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 20 2026
0mins
Should l Buy LAR?
Source: seekingalpha
Lithium Argentina AG's stock fell by 7.23% as it crossed below the 5-day SMA, reflecting a challenging trading session.
HSBC upgraded Lithium Argentina to a Buy rating with a price target of $9.60, citing strong expectations for lithium demand growth and a shift to a deficit in the lithium market. This upgrade comes amid a broader positive outlook for lithium prices, which have surged significantly in recent months, indicating potential for future profitability for companies in the sector.
The upgrade from HSBC may provide a boost to investor confidence in Lithium Argentina, especially as the lithium market is expected to strengthen in the coming years, despite the current price decline.
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Analyst Views on LAR
Wall Street analysts forecast LAR stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for LAR is 4.76 USD with a low forecast of 3.27 USD and a high forecast of 6.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
4 Analyst Rating
2 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 6.380
Low
3.27
Averages
4.76
High
6.00
Current: 6.380
Low
3.27
Averages
4.76
High
6.00
About LAR
Lithium Argentina AG is a Switzerland based company, operating in the mining industry. The Company is a resource and materials company focused on lithium production, which involves pumping the lithium into ponds allowing for the water to evaporate and the mineral fall out of suspension. Lithium is a material used primarily in lithium-ion batteries, which have applications in personal electronic devices electric cars among other products. The Company has stakes in multiple lithium-ion production facilities located primarily in Argentina such as the Cauchari-Olaroz lithium brine operation, the Cauchari-Olaroz Project, which is located in Jujuy, Argentina, the Pastos Grandes project, located in Salta Province, and the Sal de la Puna Project.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Market Outlook: Analysts expect the lithium market to shift to a deficit in the medium term, revising 2026-2029 China BG lithium carbonate price forecasts upward by 12%-48%, indicating strong expectations for lithium demand growth.
- Price Trends: Since the June trough, BG China lithium carbonate prices have surged approximately 180%, while spodumene prices have increased by 226%, suggesting that the upward trend in lithium prices may be sustainable, further boosting Albemarle's market performance.
- Financial Improvement: Albemarle has enhanced its free cash flow and balance sheet by cutting capital expenditures, selling non-core businesses, and fostering efficiency, which is expected to benefit from rising lithium prices in upcoming contract negotiations over the next 18-24 months.
See More
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Lithium's Importance: Lithium is a crucial element in battery technology that powers much of today's technology.
Positive Trends: There are signs of improvement and a turnaround in the lithium market.
See More
Albemarle and Lithium Argentina Upgraded with Price Targets of $200 and $7.75
- Market Outlook Positive: Scotiabank upgraded Albemarle and Lithium Argentina from Sector Perform to Sector Outperform with price targets of $200 and $7.75 respectively, indicating that the current lithium rally is just the beginning of a multi-year tightening cycle.
- Demand Growth Forecast: The analyst predicts lithium demand will reach 2.8 million metric tons by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 14% in the base case, suggesting strong market potential even if electric vehicle demand slightly misses expectations.
- Albemarle Financial Improvement: Albemarle has improved its leverage for the fourth consecutive quarter, with expectations of achieving positive free cash flow of $300 million to $400 million by 2025, which, combined with cost-cutting measures, could lead to a significant stock price increase, attracting North American investors.
- Lithium Argentina Operational Performance: Lithium Argentina's Cauchari project produced 34,100 metric tons of lithium carbonate, with cash operating costs below $6,000 per ton, and an expected $26 million reduction in net debt in Q4, indicating improved financial health and resilience in the market cycle.
See More
China Lithium Prices Surge 9% as Export Tax Rebates Adjust
- Policy Impact: China's Ministry of Finance announced a complete rollback of VAT export rebates for battery products starting January 1, 2027, which is expected to prompt exporters to accelerate overseas shipments, thereby increasing lithium demand and driving prices higher.
- Lithium Price Surge: The most-active lithium carbonate contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange closed up 9% at 156,060 yuan/metric ton, marking the highest level since November 2023, reflecting optimistic market expectations for future lithium demand.
- Positive Market Reaction: In pre-market U.S. trading, lithium miners saw significant stock price increases, with Albemarle up 1.7%, SQM up 4.2%, and Lithium Americas up 5.2%, indicating investor confidence in the lithium market outlook.
- Battery Production Boost: Analysts noted that the anticipated short-term increase in battery production will further drive lithium demand, especially as exporters rush to ship batteries ahead of the tax policy changes, enhancing the market position of lithium miners.
See More
Lithium Argentina Achieves 34,100 Tonnes Production in 2025, Sets Quarterly Record
- Production Milestone: Lithium Argentina achieved approximately 34,100 tonnes of lithium carbonate production in 2025, reaching the high end of its annual guidance, which underscores the company's strong performance at Argentina's largest lithium operation and solidifies its market position.
- Quarterly Record: The fourth quarter of 2025 saw lithium production reach 9,700 tonnes with an average operating rate of 97%, reflecting not only enhanced production efficiency but also laying a solid foundation for the company's future growth.
- Cost Optimization: The expected cash operating costs for the fourth quarter are projected to be below $6,000 per tonne, down from $6,285 in the third quarter, indicating improved profitability through ongoing operational optimization.
- Strategic Expansion: The company has submitted applications for a Stage 2 expansion of the Cauchari-Olaroz project, aiming to add 45,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate production capacity, demonstrating strong confidence in future growth and a proactive response to market demand.
See More
