Fabrinet stock declines amid Ohio's tax incentive pause for data centers
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 3 days ago
0mins
Source: seekingalpha
Fabrinet's stock price fell by 5.01% and hit a 5-day low amid broader market gains, with the Nasdaq-100 up 0.38% and the S&P 500 up 0.33%.
The decline in Fabrinet's stock is attributed to sector rotation, as Ohio's Governor Mike DeWine announced a pause on new tax incentives for data centers, reflecting a cautious approach towards the industry. This regulatory focus may impact companies like Fabrinet that are involved in data center operations, leading to investor concerns about future growth prospects.
This pause in tax incentives could signal a shift in the investment landscape for data centers, potentially affecting Fabrinet's business outlook and prompting investors to reassess their positions in the stock.
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Analyst Views on FN
Wall Street analysts forecast FN stock price to fall
6 Analyst Rating
5 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 667.950
Low
499.00
Averages
544.83
High
600.00
Current: 667.950
Low
499.00
Averages
544.83
High
600.00
About FN
Fabrinet is a provider of advanced optical packaging and precision optical, electro-mechanical and electronic manufacturing services to original equipment manufacturers of complex products, such as optical communication components, modules and sub-systems, automotive components, industrial lasers, medical devices and sensors. The Company offers a range of advanced optical and electro-mechanical capabilities across the entire manufacturing process, including process design and engineering, supply chain management, manufacturing, complex printed circuit board assembly, advanced packaging, integration, final assembly and testing. It focuses primarily on low-volume production of a wide variety of high complexity products. It also designs and fabricates applications-specific crystals, lenses, prisms, mirrors, laser components, and substrates (customized optics) and other custom and standard borosilicate, clear fused quartz, and synthetic fused silica glass products (customized glass).
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Ohio Pauses Tax Incentives for Data Centers Amid Economic Review
- Incentive Pause: Ohio Governor Mike DeWine has ordered a halt to new tax credit considerations for future data center projects, reflecting a cautious approach as lawmakers assess the industry's impact on the state economy.
- Tax Exemption Suspension: The Ohio Tax Credit Authority will stop accepting new data center tax exemption proposals after its scheduled meeting on Monday, where an existing request will be reviewed, indicating a significant regulatory focus on the industry.
- Investment Figures: Data centers previously granted sales and use tax benefits in Ohio have reported a total capital investment of $27.2 billion by 2025, highlighting the potential economic contributions and risks associated with the sector.
- Legislative Review Context: The governor's directive is not a complete ban but a suspension of new requests, aimed at allowing the Ohio General Assembly's Joint Data Center Committee time to thoroughly study the economic implications of data centers in the state.
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- Datacom Supply Constraints: Despite Datacom revenue of $260 million, which grew 4% year-over-year, it declined 6% quarter-over-quarter, primarily due to EML laser shortages, highlighting the competitive environment of tight global laser supply.
- New Customer Wins: Fabrinet secured direct orders for two 800G transceiver programs, expected to ramp through FY27, diversifying its customer base despite short-term supply challenges in Datacom.
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See More
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- Incentive Pause: Ohio Governor Mike DeWine has ordered a halt to new tax credit considerations for future data center projects, reflecting a cautious approach as lawmakers assess the industry's impact on the state economy.
- Tax Exemption Suspension: The Ohio Tax Credit Authority will stop accepting new data center tax exemption proposals after its scheduled meeting on Monday, where an existing request will be reviewed, indicating a significant regulatory focus on the industry.
- Investment Figures: Data centers previously granted sales and use tax benefits in Ohio have reported a total capital investment of $27.2 billion by 2025, highlighting the potential economic contributions and risks associated with the sector.
- Legislative Review Context: The governor's directive is not a complete ban but a suspension of new requests, aimed at allowing the Ohio General Assembly's Joint Data Center Committee time to thoroughly study the economic implications of data centers in the state.
See More
Positive Outlook for Datacom Market Growth
- Market Growth Forecast: LightCounting has recently revised the datacom market outlook upwards, with expectations for the market to expand at nearly a 35% CAGR through 2028, growing from $19 billion in 2025 to $47 billion by 2028, indicating strong market demand and investment opportunities.
- Data Rate Drivers: Analysts noted that the 1.6T data rate market is expected to grow at approximately 200% CAGR to $21 billion, while the 800G rate is projected to grow at nearly 26% CAGR to $21 billion, highlighting the rapidly increasing demand for high data rate products.
- Increasing Optical Attach Rates: The optical attach rate is forecasted to rise from less than four times in 2025 to 4.5 times by 2027, indicating a growing application of optical components across various processing units, particularly in different architectures used by Google and Nvidia.
- Significant Market Potential: The total addressable market for co-packaged optics is projected to reach $2 billion by 2028 and surge to $11 billion by 2030, suggesting that the growth potential in this area far exceeds conservative estimates from industry analysts, which could significantly boost revenues for related companies.
See More
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- Cost and Yield Comparison: The iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV) has an expense ratio of 0.03%, significantly lower than the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) at 0.19%, making IVV more cost-effective for long-term investors, while IVV also offers a higher dividend yield of 1.1% compared to IWM's 0.9%.
- Return Performance Discrepancy: Over the past year, IVV's return rate stands at 27.8%, while IWM boasts a higher 36.9%, indicating strong recent performance of small caps, although IVV has shown more stable returns over the last decade, with a $1,000 investment in IVV now worth about $4,300, significantly outperforming IWM's $2,933.
- Portfolio Composition: IVV's top holdings include Nvidia (8.6%), Apple (6.9%), and Microsoft (4.7%), with a technology sector weight of 37%, while IWM focuses on industrials (19%), technology (18%), and healthcare (16%), highlighting significant differences in sector allocation between the two.
- Market Volatility Analysis: IVV has a beta of 1.00, indicating price volatility in line with the market, whereas IWM's beta of 1.30 suggests higher volatility, prompting investors to consider the risk-reward balance associated with the price swings of small-cap stocks.
See More
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- Price Range Analysis: The IWM ETF's 52-week low is $198.26 per share, with a high of $287.58, and the latest trade at $284.65 indicates stability near its high, potentially attracting investor interest in future movements.
- Technical Analysis Tool: Comparing the latest share price to the 200-day moving average provides valuable insights for investors, helping them assess market trends and identify potential buy or sell opportunities.
- ETF Unit Trading Mechanism: ETFs trade like stocks, where investors buy and sell 'units' that can be created or destroyed based on demand, impacting liquidity and market performance.
- Inflows and Outflows Monitoring: Weekly monitoring of changes in shares outstanding helps identify ETFs experiencing notable inflows (new units created) or outflows (old units destroyed), assessing their impact on underlying assets and market sentiment.
See More
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- Strong Earnings Performance: Rockwell Automation reported a fiscal Q2 earnings per share of $3.30, exceeding analyst expectations of $2.88, with revenue of $2.24 billion surpassing the forecast of $2.16 billion, indicating robust market demand and operational efficiency.
- Upgraded Outlook: The company raised its fiscal 2026 profit outlook, reflecting confidence in future performance, which is likely to further boost investor sentiment and stock price.
- Competitor Struggles: Huntington Ingalls saw an 11% drop in shares despite free cash flow projections of $500 million to $600 million, falling short of the consensus estimate of $569.7 million, highlighting increasing competitive pressures in the industry.
- Positive Market Reaction: Other companies like DuPont and Waters Corp also saw stock price increases due to better-than-expected earnings, indicating a recovering market confidence in the manufacturing and technology sectors.
See More
Fabrinet Reports Strong Q3 Earnings Amid Supply Concerns
- Earnings Beat: Fabrinet's Q3 revenue reached $1.21 billion, representing a 39% year-over-year increase and surpassing the market consensus of $1.19 billion, indicating robust growth potential in telecom and high-performance computing sectors.
- Datacom Supply Constraints: Despite Datacom revenue of $260 million, which grew 4% year-over-year, it declined 6% quarter-over-quarter, primarily due to EML laser shortages, highlighting the competitive environment of tight global laser supply.
- New Customer Wins: Fabrinet secured direct orders for two 800G transceiver programs, expected to ramp through FY27, diversifying its customer base despite short-term supply challenges in Datacom.
- Strong Telecom Momentum: Telecom revenue in the Data Center Interconnect (DCI) segment grew 90% year-over-year and 38% quarter-over-quarter, demonstrating the company's ability to maintain strong growth in a rapidly evolving market.
See More
