Eli Lilly's Drug Trials Show Promising Weight Loss Results
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Apr 17 2024
0mins
Source: TipRanks
Eli Lilly's stock rose by 3.00% as it reached a 20-day high, reflecting positive investor sentiment.
The company's recent trials for its drugs Foundayo and Zepbound have shown promising results in long-term weight loss maintenance. In the ATTAIN-MAINTAIN trial, participants switching from Wegovy to Foundayo maintained an average weight loss of 0.9 kg, while the SURMOUNT-MAINTAIN trial indicated that Zepbound helped participants preserve an average weight loss of 25.2 kg after 60 weeks. These results highlight the potential of these drugs in the obesity treatment market, reinforcing Eli Lilly's commitment to developing effective solutions for weight management.
The implications of these findings are significant for Eli Lilly, as they not only enhance the company's portfolio in obesity treatments but also position it favorably in a growing market. The positive outcomes from these trials may lead to increased demand for these drugs, further solidifying Eli Lilly's role as a leader in innovative healthcare solutions.
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Analyst Views on LLY
Wall Street analysts forecast LLY stock price to rise
20 Analyst Rating
18 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 1126.800
Low
950.00
Averages
1192
High
1500
Current: 1126.800
Low
950.00
Averages
1192
High
1500
About LLY
Eli Lilly and Company is a medicine company, which discovers, develops, manufactures, and market products in a single business segment called human pharmaceutical products. The Company manufacture and distribute its products through facilities in the United States, including Puerto Rico, and in Europe and Asia. The Company’s products are sold in approximately 90 countries. Its Cardiometabolic Health products Basaglar; Humalog, Humalog Mix 75/25, Humalog U-100, Humalog U-200, Humalog Mix 50/50, insulin lispro, and others; Humulin, Humulin 70/30, and others; Jardiance; Mounjaro; Trulicity; Zepbound, and others. Its oncology products include Cyramza, Erbitux, Tyvyt, Verzenio, Retevmo, Jaypirca, and others. Its immunology products include Ebglyss, Olumiant, Omvoh, and Taltz. Its neuroscience products include Emgality and Kisunla. Its LillyDirect, a direct-to-patient digital health care platform, provides delivery of select Lilly medicines dispensed by third-party pharmacies to patients.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Eli Lilly Expands Coverage for Obesity Medications
- Expanded Coverage: Eli Lilly announced that its obesity medication portfolio will be covered by the three largest pharmacy benefit managers in the U.S., significantly increasing access to FDA-approved treatment options for millions of Americans, thereby enhancing patient choice and accessibility.
- Reduced Medication Costs: Starting June 1, eligible patients will pay as little as $25 per month for Foundayo and Zepbound, which is expected to significantly lower the financial burden on patients and promote broader adoption of these medications.
- Clinical Trial Validation: The ATTAIN-1 and ATTAIN-2 clinical trials enrolled over 4,500 individuals with obesity or overweight, demonstrating that Foundayo led to an average weight loss of 27.3 pounds (12.4%) over 72 weeks, providing robust evidence of its efficacy and further solidifying Lilly's market position in obesity treatment.
- Competitive Market Advantage: Zepbound, the most prescribed injectable obesity medication in the U.S., achieved an average weight loss of 15% (34 lbs) over 72 weeks, enhancing patients' quality of life and securing a larger market share for Lilly in the competitive obesity drug landscape.
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- Intensifying Market Competition: Eli Lilly's introduction of an oral GLP-1 drug may attract consumers, but it trails behind Novo Nordisk's more effective pill launched in 2026, potentially delaying market acceptance and impacting future revenues.
- High Revenue Dependency: Nearly 65% of Eli Lilly's revenue comes from its injectable GLP-1 drugs, Mounjaro and Zepbound, indicating that any loss in market share could significantly affect the company's financial health and growth prospects.
- Promising Drug Development: Eli Lilly's next-generation GLP-1 drug, Retatrutide, is in development, with early trials showing some patients losing over 30% of their weight, comparable to bariatric surgery, which could provide a new growth avenue if successfully launched.
- Valuation Appeal: Although Eli Lilly's price-to-earnings ratio stands at 37, above the pharma average of 24, if Retatrutide meets expectations and drives growth, the current valuation may appear more attractive to investors, warranting close attention.
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- Intense Market Competition: Eli Lilly leads the GLP-1 drug market, yet its newly launched oral medication may face acceptance challenges compared to Novo Nordisk's more effective pill, highlighting the fierce competition in the industry.
- High Revenue Dependency: Nearly 65% of Eli Lilly's revenue comes from two injectable GLP-1 drugs, Mounjaro and Zepbound, indicating the critical importance of GLP-1 drugs to the company's business, with future market performance directly impacting its financial health.
- Promising Drug Development: Eli Lilly's next-generation GLP-1 drug, Retatrutide, shows promising early trial results, with some patients losing over 30% of their weight, potentially providing new growth momentum for the company, although it is still in the testing phase.
- Valuation Analysis: With a price-to-earnings ratio of 37x, significantly above the pharma average of 24x, Eli Lilly's current valuation may seem high, but if the new GLP-1 drug meets expectations, it could lead to attractive growth opportunities for the company.
See More
Is It Time to Reload Your Underinvested Portfolio?
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- Market Share Leadership: Eli Lilly has captured a 60% share of the GLP-1 drug market in the U.S., surpassing rival Novo Nordisk, indicating strong performance in the obesity drug sector and expected revenue growth.
- Strong Stock Performance: Over the past three years, Lilly's stock has surged more than 160%, and despite a sluggish start to the year, it recently surpassed $1,000, reflecting investor confidence in its future growth prospects.
- Split Potential Analysis: The stock's rise above $1,000 may prompt the company to consider a stock split; although it has split its stock four times in the past, changes in management could influence future decisions.
- New Drug Driving Growth: The recent launch of Lilly's oral obesity drug Foundayo could serve as a new growth driver, and combined with existing products Mounjaro and Zepbound, sustained market demand may further elevate the stock price and trigger split discussions.
See More
Eli Lilly Expands Coverage for Obesity Medications
- Expanded Coverage: Eli Lilly announced that its obesity medication portfolio will be covered by the three largest pharmacy benefit managers in the U.S., significantly increasing access to FDA-approved treatment options for millions of Americans, thereby enhancing patient choice and accessibility.
- Reduced Medication Costs: Starting June 1, eligible patients will pay as little as $25 per month for Foundayo and Zepbound, which is expected to significantly lower the financial burden on patients and promote broader adoption of these medications.
- Clinical Trial Validation: The ATTAIN-1 and ATTAIN-2 clinical trials enrolled over 4,500 individuals with obesity or overweight, demonstrating that Foundayo led to an average weight loss of 27.3 pounds (12.4%) over 72 weeks, providing robust evidence of its efficacy and further solidifying Lilly's market position in obesity treatment.
- Competitive Market Advantage: Zepbound, the most prescribed injectable obesity medication in the U.S., achieved an average weight loss of 15% (34 lbs) over 72 weeks, enhancing patients' quality of life and securing a larger market share for Lilly in the competitive obesity drug landscape.
See More
Eli Lilly's New Developments in GLP-1 Drugs
- Intensifying Market Competition: Eli Lilly's introduction of an oral GLP-1 drug may attract consumers, but it trails behind Novo Nordisk's more effective pill launched in 2026, potentially delaying market acceptance and impacting future revenues.
- High Revenue Dependency: Nearly 65% of Eli Lilly's revenue comes from its injectable GLP-1 drugs, Mounjaro and Zepbound, indicating that any loss in market share could significantly affect the company's financial health and growth prospects.
- Promising Drug Development: Eli Lilly's next-generation GLP-1 drug, Retatrutide, is in development, with early trials showing some patients losing over 30% of their weight, comparable to bariatric surgery, which could provide a new growth avenue if successfully launched.
- Valuation Appeal: Although Eli Lilly's price-to-earnings ratio stands at 37, above the pharma average of 24, if Retatrutide meets expectations and drives growth, the current valuation may appear more attractive to investors, warranting close attention.
See More
Eli Lilly Faces Intensifying Competition in GLP-1 Drug Market
- Intense Market Competition: Eli Lilly leads the GLP-1 drug market, yet its newly launched oral medication may face acceptance challenges compared to Novo Nordisk's more effective pill, highlighting the fierce competition in the industry.
- High Revenue Dependency: Nearly 65% of Eli Lilly's revenue comes from two injectable GLP-1 drugs, Mounjaro and Zepbound, indicating the critical importance of GLP-1 drugs to the company's business, with future market performance directly impacting its financial health.
- Promising Drug Development: Eli Lilly's next-generation GLP-1 drug, Retatrutide, shows promising early trial results, with some patients losing over 30% of their weight, potentially providing new growth momentum for the company, although it is still in the testing phase.
- Valuation Analysis: With a price-to-earnings ratio of 37x, significantly above the pharma average of 24x, Eli Lilly's current valuation may seem high, but if the new GLP-1 drug meets expectations, it could lead to attractive growth opportunities for the company.
See More
Is It Time to Reload Your Underinvested Portfolio?
- Shopify Stock Fluctuations: Shopify's stock has dropped 40% since last October, currently valued at $154 billion; despite pressures from slowing sales growth and rising interest rates, its Q1 revenue growth rate of 34% highlights its significance in the future of e-commerce.
- Nice's Customer Service Technology: Nice Ltd, with a market cap of $5.4 billion, derives only 14% of its cloud revenue from AI, yet its Q1 recurring revenue grew 66% year-over-year, showcasing its strong performance and growth potential in the customer service market.
- Viking Therapeutics' Drug Development: Viking Therapeutics is conducting phase 3 trials for its GLP-1 weight-loss drug VK2735, currently valued at $3.8 billion; analysts unanimously rate its stock as a strong buy with a target price of $95.40, reflecting confidence in its market potential.
- Investor Focus on Emerging Stocks: Despite overall market volatility, investor interest in Shopify, Nice, and Viking indicates optimism towards these growth stocks, particularly in the long-term growth prospects within the e-commerce and health sectors.
See More
Analysis of Shopify's Stock Price Decline
- Shopify's Stock Decline: Shopify's shares have fallen 40% since October, driven by slowing sales growth, rising interest rates, and potential threats from AI, although these concerns may be overstated.
- Nice Ltd's Customer Service Edge: Nice Ltd's platform facilitates over 20 billion interactions annually, and while AI accounts for only 14% of its cloud revenue, its annualized revenue has reached $345 million, indicating strong growth potential.
- Viking Therapeutics' Market Potential: Viking Therapeutics' VK2735 is in phase 3 trials and could disrupt the $200 billion obesity drug market, with analysts setting a target price of $95.40, representing a 200% upside from current levels.
- Cautious Investor Sentiment: Despite stocks remaining above late-March lows, many investors are on the sidelines due to concerns about a market pullback, particularly in the current economic climate, which challenges confidence in reinvesting.
See More
Eli Lilly's Stock Surpasses $1,000, Potential Split Ahead
- Market Share Leadership: Eli Lilly has captured a 60% share of the GLP-1 drug market in the U.S., surpassing rival Novo Nordisk, indicating strong performance in the obesity drug sector and expected revenue growth.
- Strong Stock Performance: Over the past three years, Lilly's stock has surged more than 160%, and despite a sluggish start to the year, it recently surpassed $1,000, reflecting investor confidence in its future growth prospects.
- Split Potential Analysis: The stock's rise above $1,000 may prompt the company to consider a stock split; although it has split its stock four times in the past, changes in management could influence future decisions.
- New Drug Driving Growth: The recent launch of Lilly's oral obesity drug Foundayo could serve as a new growth driver, and combined with existing products Mounjaro and Zepbound, sustained market demand may further elevate the stock price and trigger split discussions.
See More
