Concerns Over Private Credit Bubble Weigh on Lincoln National
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Apr 10 2026
0mins
Source: Bloomberg
Lincoln National Corp (LNC) saw a significant decline of 5.00% as it crossed below its 5-day SMA, reflecting investor concerns.
The bearish stance on insurers, including Lincoln National, stems from worries about the private credit bubble, as highlighted by a hedge fund manager who noted that the market may not be accurately pricing the risks these companies face. This situation raises alarms about potential financial losses and increased volatility, reminiscent of the pre-2008 financial crisis environment.
As investors turn cautious, the rising trading volumes in credit default swaps indicate a growing focus on the risks associated with insurers, suggesting that Lincoln National may face further challenges ahead.
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Analyst Views on LNC
Wall Street analysts forecast LNC stock price to rise
9 Analyst Rating
3 Buy
5 Hold
1 Sell
Hold
Current: 38.390
Low
41.00
Averages
47.56
High
59.00
Current: 38.390
Low
41.00
Averages
47.56
High
59.00
About LNC
Lincoln National Corporation is a holding company, which operates multiple insurance and retirement businesses through subsidiary companies. The Company operates through four segments, which include Annuities, Life Insurance, Group Protection and Retirement Plan Services. The Annuities segment provides tax-deferred investment growth and lifetime wealth accumulation and protection opportunities for its clients by offering variable annuities, fixed including indexed annuities and registered index-linked annuities (RILA). The Life Insurance segment provides life insurance products, including term insurance, universal life insurance (IUL) and variable universal life insurance (VUL) products, linked-benefit products, and critical illness and long-term care riders. The Group Protection segment offers group non-medical insurance products and services, including short- and long-term disability, statutory disability and paid family medical leave administration.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Key Wall Street Rating Updates on Monday
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- AMD Price Target Increase: Goldman Sachs raised AMD's price target from $450 to $640, believing strong performance in server CPUs will drive quarterly results, despite potential headwinds in the PC segment, maintaining an overall bullish outlook.
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- IBM Price Target Increase: Bank of America raised IBM's price target from $315 to $330, noting the company's shift towards higher-margin software and M&A activities driving strong free cash flow, indicating potential for future growth.
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Lincoln National Corporation Completes $500 Million Subordinated Notes Offering
- Bond Offering Overview: In late June, Lincoln National Corporation completed a $500 million offering of fixed-to-fixed reset subordinated notes due 2056, reflecting the company's proactive approach to recalibrating its capital structure.
- Rating Impact: AM Best assigned a 'bbb' Long-Term Issue Credit Rating with a stable outlook to these subordinated securities, providing investor confidence and potentially lowering future financing costs.
- Dividend and Financial Flexibility: The company maintains a quarterly dividend of $0.45 per share, indicating a commitment to rewarding shareholders while ensuring financial flexibility during capital structure adjustments.
- Future Outlook: Lincoln National projects $21.4 billion in revenue and $1.8 billion in earnings by 2029, and the new debt financing may reinforce this optimistic outlook, although potential capital pressure risks must be monitored.
See More
Hedge Fund Manager Bets Against Private Credit Bubble
- Bearish Stance on Insurers: Concerns over the private credit bubble have led to a bearish stance on insurers like Lincoln National (LNC), MetLife (MET), and Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B), as the market may not be accurately pricing the risks these companies face, potentially resulting in future financial losses.
- Use of Credit Default Swaps: Robinson is utilizing credit default swaps (CDS) for his investments, highlighting that while insurers' holdings in private credit are relatively small, the associated risks are significant, indicating a potential market oversight that could lead to greater volatility.
- Market Confidence and Warning Signs: Robinson notes that despite strong market confidence, there are emerging concerns similar to those before the 2008 financial crisis, particularly regarding the risks faced by software borrowers in private credit, which could trigger broader market turmoil.
- Rising Trading Volumes: As of May 22, net notional bets on U.S. insurers' CDSs have increased to $5.5 billion from $4.9 billion at the end of 2025, indicating a growing investor focus on the potential risks of insurers, even though the price of these derivatives has not risen significantly compared to the risks involved.
See More
Comparative Analysis of Lincoln National and MetLife
- Lincoln National Financial Performance: In FY 2025, Lincoln National reported revenue of nearly $18.2 billion, reflecting a modest growth of approximately 1.2%, which supported a net income of about $1.2 billion, indicating a net margin of roughly 6.5%, showcasing its stability in the U.S. market and focus on retirement services.
- MetLife's Global Footprint: MetLife achieved approximately $77 billion in revenue for FY 2025, marking a significant year-over-year increase of nearly 10.2%, with net income close to $3.4 billion and a net margin of about 4.4%, demonstrating how its geographic diversity provides a buffer against regional economic fluctuations.
- Risk Profile Analysis: Lincoln National faces significant risks from interest rate fluctuations and equity market volatility, which could compress its investment spreads, while MetLife must navigate risks related to climate change and catastrophic events, highlighting different challenges in risk management for both companies.
- Valuation Comparison: Lincoln National's forward P/E ratio stands at 4.5x and P/S ratio at 0.4x, compared to MetLife's 8.5x and 0.7x, indicating a lower valuation that may attract income-seeking investors, albeit with higher associated risks.
See More
Investment Comparison: Lincoln National vs. MetLife
- Market Positioning: Lincoln National focuses on the U.S. retirement and life insurance market, serving approximately 17 million customers, with FY 2025 revenue nearing $18.2 billion, reflecting a 1.2% growth that underscores its commitment to stability and long-term security in domestic operations.
- Global Advantage: MetLife operates in over 40 markets, generating approximately $77 billion in revenue for FY 2025, a 10.2% increase, demonstrating strong performance in international markets and providing a buffer against regional economic fluctuations through its diversified business model.
- Financial Health: Lincoln National's debt-to-equity ratio stands at 0.6, with a current ratio of about 0.5, and despite a negative free cash flow of nearly $167 million, management is focused on stabilizing core insurance lines to navigate the complexities of the current macroeconomic environment.
- Risks and Opportunities: Lincoln National faces risks from interest rate fluctuations and market competition, while MetLife must contend with potential impacts from climate change and catastrophic events, prompting investors to choose based on their risk tolerance and investment strategy.
See More
Investment Comparison: Lincoln National vs. MetLife
- Lincoln National's Market Positioning: Lincoln National focuses on retirement services and life insurance in the U.S., with FY 2025 revenue nearing $18.2 billion, reflecting a modest 1.2% growth and a net income of approximately $1.2 billion, showcasing its commitment to long-term security in the domestic market.
- MetLife's Global Advantage: MetLife operates in over 40 markets, generating approximately $77 billion in revenue for FY 2025, a significant 10.2% year-over-year increase, with a net income of around $3.4 billion, indicating strong performance and a diversified business model in international markets.
- Risks and Challenges: Lincoln National faces risks from interest rate fluctuations and market competition that could compress investment returns, while MetLife must manage potential claims liabilities from climate change and natural disasters, highlighting different risk management focuses between the two companies.
- Valuation Comparison: Lincoln National has a forward P/E ratio of 4.5x and a P/S ratio of 0.4x, while MetLife's forward P/E is 8.5x and P/S is 0.7x, reflecting a higher valuation premium for MetLife, making it more appealing for investors seeking stability.
See More
Key Wall Street Rating Updates on Monday
- Wise Rating Upgrade: JPMorgan upgraded Wise to overweight, expecting net revenue growth in Q1 and Q2 to exceed mid-term guidance, indicating significant positive momentum in user activity and transaction volumes, which could drive stock price appreciation.
- AMD Price Target Increase: Goldman Sachs raised AMD's price target from $450 to $640, believing strong performance in server CPUs will drive quarterly results, despite potential headwinds in the PC segment, maintaining an overall bullish outlook.
- Netflix Price Target Downgrade: Goldman lowered Netflix's price target from $120 to $110 while maintaining a buy rating, anticipating upcoming earnings to face challenges in user growth and engagement due to seasonal factors and content scheduling impacts.
- IBM Price Target Increase: Bank of America raised IBM's price target from $315 to $330, noting the company's shift towards higher-margin software and M&A activities driving strong free cash flow, indicating potential for future growth.
See More
Lincoln National Corporation Completes $500 Million Subordinated Notes Offering
- Bond Offering Overview: In late June, Lincoln National Corporation completed a $500 million offering of fixed-to-fixed reset subordinated notes due 2056, reflecting the company's proactive approach to recalibrating its capital structure.
- Rating Impact: AM Best assigned a 'bbb' Long-Term Issue Credit Rating with a stable outlook to these subordinated securities, providing investor confidence and potentially lowering future financing costs.
- Dividend and Financial Flexibility: The company maintains a quarterly dividend of $0.45 per share, indicating a commitment to rewarding shareholders while ensuring financial flexibility during capital structure adjustments.
- Future Outlook: Lincoln National projects $21.4 billion in revenue and $1.8 billion in earnings by 2029, and the new debt financing may reinforce this optimistic outlook, although potential capital pressure risks must be monitored.
See More
Hedge Fund Manager Bets Against Private Credit Bubble
- Bearish Stance on Insurers: Concerns over the private credit bubble have led to a bearish stance on insurers like Lincoln National (LNC), MetLife (MET), and Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B), as the market may not be accurately pricing the risks these companies face, potentially resulting in future financial losses.
- Use of Credit Default Swaps: Robinson is utilizing credit default swaps (CDS) for his investments, highlighting that while insurers' holdings in private credit are relatively small, the associated risks are significant, indicating a potential market oversight that could lead to greater volatility.
- Market Confidence and Warning Signs: Robinson notes that despite strong market confidence, there are emerging concerns similar to those before the 2008 financial crisis, particularly regarding the risks faced by software borrowers in private credit, which could trigger broader market turmoil.
- Rising Trading Volumes: As of May 22, net notional bets on U.S. insurers' CDSs have increased to $5.5 billion from $4.9 billion at the end of 2025, indicating a growing investor focus on the potential risks of insurers, even though the price of these derivatives has not risen significantly compared to the risks involved.
See More
Comparative Analysis of Lincoln National and MetLife
- Lincoln National Financial Performance: In FY 2025, Lincoln National reported revenue of nearly $18.2 billion, reflecting a modest growth of approximately 1.2%, which supported a net income of about $1.2 billion, indicating a net margin of roughly 6.5%, showcasing its stability in the U.S. market and focus on retirement services.
- MetLife's Global Footprint: MetLife achieved approximately $77 billion in revenue for FY 2025, marking a significant year-over-year increase of nearly 10.2%, with net income close to $3.4 billion and a net margin of about 4.4%, demonstrating how its geographic diversity provides a buffer against regional economic fluctuations.
- Risk Profile Analysis: Lincoln National faces significant risks from interest rate fluctuations and equity market volatility, which could compress its investment spreads, while MetLife must navigate risks related to climate change and catastrophic events, highlighting different challenges in risk management for both companies.
- Valuation Comparison: Lincoln National's forward P/E ratio stands at 4.5x and P/S ratio at 0.4x, compared to MetLife's 8.5x and 0.7x, indicating a lower valuation that may attract income-seeking investors, albeit with higher associated risks.
See More
Investment Comparison: Lincoln National vs. MetLife
- Market Positioning: Lincoln National focuses on the U.S. retirement and life insurance market, serving approximately 17 million customers, with FY 2025 revenue nearing $18.2 billion, reflecting a 1.2% growth that underscores its commitment to stability and long-term security in domestic operations.
- Global Advantage: MetLife operates in over 40 markets, generating approximately $77 billion in revenue for FY 2025, a 10.2% increase, demonstrating strong performance in international markets and providing a buffer against regional economic fluctuations through its diversified business model.
- Financial Health: Lincoln National's debt-to-equity ratio stands at 0.6, with a current ratio of about 0.5, and despite a negative free cash flow of nearly $167 million, management is focused on stabilizing core insurance lines to navigate the complexities of the current macroeconomic environment.
- Risks and Opportunities: Lincoln National faces risks from interest rate fluctuations and market competition, while MetLife must contend with potential impacts from climate change and catastrophic events, prompting investors to choose based on their risk tolerance and investment strategy.
See More
Investment Comparison: Lincoln National vs. MetLife
- Lincoln National's Market Positioning: Lincoln National focuses on retirement services and life insurance in the U.S., with FY 2025 revenue nearing $18.2 billion, reflecting a modest 1.2% growth and a net income of approximately $1.2 billion, showcasing its commitment to long-term security in the domestic market.
- MetLife's Global Advantage: MetLife operates in over 40 markets, generating approximately $77 billion in revenue for FY 2025, a significant 10.2% year-over-year increase, with a net income of around $3.4 billion, indicating strong performance and a diversified business model in international markets.
- Risks and Challenges: Lincoln National faces risks from interest rate fluctuations and market competition that could compress investment returns, while MetLife must manage potential claims liabilities from climate change and natural disasters, highlighting different risk management focuses between the two companies.
- Valuation Comparison: Lincoln National has a forward P/E ratio of 4.5x and a P/S ratio of 0.4x, while MetLife's forward P/E is 8.5x and P/S is 0.7x, reflecting a higher valuation premium for MetLife, making it more appealing for investors seeking stability.
See More
