Cboe to Launch New Prediction Markets Framework in 2026
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jun 17 2024
0mins
Source: PRnewswire
Cboe Global Markets Inc. experienced a decline of 5.38% as it hit a 5-day low amid mixed market conditions, with the Nasdaq-100 up 0.23% and the S&P 500 down 0.15%.
The company announced plans to launch a new prediction markets framework in Q2 2026, which will allow traders to receive partial payouts if they are directionally correct. This innovative approach aims to enhance market flexibility and risk management capabilities, offering diverse payout options for traders. The first contract product will be a Mini S&P 500 Index prediction market contract, expected to attract more investors and strengthen Cboe's competitive position in the evolving prediction market landscape.
This new framework could significantly influence trading strategies and market dynamics, potentially driving growth for Cboe as it adapts to the increasing demand for diversified investment tools.
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Analyst Views on CBOE
Wall Street analysts forecast CBOE stock price to fall
8 Analyst Rating
2 Buy
5 Hold
1 Sell
Hold
Current: 344.240
Low
240.00
Averages
290.86
High
317.00
Current: 344.240
Low
240.00
Averages
290.86
High
317.00
About CBOE
Cboe Global Markets, Inc. is a derivatives and securities exchange network delivering trading, clearing, and investment solutions. The Company provides trading solutions and products in equities, derivatives, and foreign exchange (FX). Its segments include Options, North American Equities, Europe and Asia Pacific, Futures, and Global FX. The Options segment includes options on market indices, as well as on the stocks of individual corporations and on exchange-traded products (ETPs) such as exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and exchange-traded notes (ETNs), which are multi-listed options and listed on a non-exclusive basis. The North American Equities segment includes United States equities and ETP transaction services that occur on fully electronic exchanges. The Europe and Asia Pacific segment includes derivatives transaction services, ETPs, including exchange-traded funds, exchange-traded notes, exchange-traded commodities, and international depository receipts.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Cboe Secures SEC Approval for Extended Trading Hours
- Trading Hours Expansion: Cboe Global Markets has received SEC approval to begin offering extended trading hours for multi-listed equity options starting July 13, indicating a proactive strategy in market competition.
- New Trading Sessions: The new trading hours will include a pre-market session from 7:30 AM to 9:25 AM ET and a post-market session from 4:00 PM to 4:15 PM ET, Monday to Friday, which is expected to attract more investors and enhance market liquidity.
- Initial Stock Offerings: Approximately 20 stocks, including the Magnificent 7 such as Nvidia, Tesla, and Apple, along with popular names like Palantir, Broadcom, and AMD, are expected to be available for trading at launch, highlighting Cboe's focus on high-demand equities.
- Market Safeguards: By initially launching with a select group of single-name options, Cboe is taking a measured approach to ensure market safeguards and investor protections remain intact, which will help align options trading with their underlying securities in a near 24x5 trading environment.
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- Extensive Experience: With over 30 years in risk management, clearing, and derivatives, Duinstra previously served as CEO of ABN AMRO Clearing USA, and his expertise is anticipated to significantly support Cboe's future growth.
- Strategic Importance: Cboe CEO Craig Donohue noted that Duinstra's deep enterprise risk knowledge and operational leadership will be crucial as the company scales its capabilities globally, particularly in derivatives and clearing.
- Market Reaction: Although Cboe's stock dipped 0.1% in after-hours trading, the company expects to achieve annualized expense savings of $100 million to $120 million by lowering its 2026 adjusted operating expense guidance to $838 million to $853 million.
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- Executive Engagement Opportunity: The event will provide investors with a chance to engage directly with the executive team, allowing shareholders to give feedback, thereby enhancing the connection between the company and its investors and improving shareholder satisfaction.
- Facility Tour Activities: Following the Annual General Meeting, investors will be invited to tour the company's operational facility, experiencing firsthand the progress made, which not only helps build investor trust but also showcases the company's leading position in the industry.
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- Storage Companies Benefit: Firms such as Seagate and Western Digital are favored by investors due to rising demand for memory and data infrastructure, further solidifying their market positions and reflecting a sustained preference for tech stocks.
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Cboe Declares $0.72 Quarterly Dividend, Maintains Guidance
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- Yield Analysis: The forward yield of 0.8% reflects the company's resilience in the current market environment, aiming to attract income-seeking investors while bolstering market confidence in its stock performance.
- Cost Savings Outlook: Cboe anticipates annualized expense savings of $100 million to $120 million by lowering its 2026 adjusted operating expense guidance to between $838 million and $853 million, which will enhance profitability and optimize resource allocation.
- Stock Price Reaction: Following the announcement of headcount reductions and the revised operating expense guidance, Cboe's stock price surged, indicating a positive market reaction to the company's cost control measures, which may further enhance investor confidence in future growth prospects.
See More
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- Surge in Participation: Since the 2024 presidential election, monthly notional volume for prediction markets has skyrocketed to over $24 billion, up from less than $5 billion a year ago, indicating strong interest from retail investors in this emerging market.
- Enhanced Competitiveness: The trading volume of prediction markets is now close to that of leveraged exchange-traded products, although it still falls short of the S&P 500's 0DTE options market, which saw nearly $57 trillion in total value traded in March, highlighting the potential of prediction markets in high-risk investment sectors.
- Driven by Younger Investors: A Northwestern Mutual study found that nearly a third of Gen Z and almost a quarter of millennials are currently engaging in prediction markets or sports betting, suggesting that this market is attracting younger investors and may serve as a bridge to equity trading.
- Diverse Trading Opportunities: Prediction markets are considered more approachable due to their binary outcomes and broad range of events to trade, with KKM Financial's Jeff Kilburg noting that this diversity encourages retail investors to participate, further fueling market growth.
See More
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- Trading Hours Expansion: Cboe Global Markets has received SEC approval to begin offering extended trading hours for multi-listed equity options starting July 13, indicating a proactive strategy in market competition.
- New Trading Sessions: The new trading hours will include a pre-market session from 7:30 AM to 9:25 AM ET and a post-market session from 4:00 PM to 4:15 PM ET, Monday to Friday, which is expected to attract more investors and enhance market liquidity.
- Initial Stock Offerings: Approximately 20 stocks, including the Magnificent 7 such as Nvidia, Tesla, and Apple, along with popular names like Palantir, Broadcom, and AMD, are expected to be available for trading at launch, highlighting Cboe's focus on high-demand equities.
- Market Safeguards: By initially launching with a select group of single-name options, Cboe is taking a measured approach to ensure market safeguards and investor protections remain intact, which will help align options trading with their underlying securities in a near 24x5 trading environment.
See More
Cboe Appoints New Risk Management Executive
- Executive Appointment: Cboe Global Markets has appointed Boudewijn Duinstra to lead its global risk management function, aiming to enhance its enterprise risk framework and operational resilience, which is expected to positively impact corporate governance.
- Extensive Experience: With over 30 years in risk management, clearing, and derivatives, Duinstra previously served as CEO of ABN AMRO Clearing USA, and his expertise is anticipated to significantly support Cboe's future growth.
- Strategic Importance: Cboe CEO Craig Donohue noted that Duinstra's deep enterprise risk knowledge and operational leadership will be crucial as the company scales its capabilities globally, particularly in derivatives and clearing.
- Market Reaction: Although Cboe's stock dipped 0.1% in after-hours trading, the company expects to achieve annualized expense savings of $100 million to $120 million by lowering its 2026 adjusted operating expense guidance to $838 million to $853 million.
See More
Glass House to Host Fifth Annual Investor Sesh for Shareholder Engagement
- Investor Event Announcement: Glass House Brands will hold its fifth annual Investor Sesh on June 18, 2026, at its flagship facility in Camarillo, California, aimed at appreciating investor support and demonstrating company transparency, which is expected to attract numerous shareholders.
- Executive Engagement Opportunity: The event will provide investors with a chance to engage directly with the executive team, allowing shareholders to give feedback, thereby enhancing the connection between the company and its investors and improving shareholder satisfaction.
- Facility Tour Activities: Following the Annual General Meeting, investors will be invited to tour the company's operational facility, experiencing firsthand the progress made, which not only helps build investor trust but also showcases the company's leading position in the industry.
- Brand Commitment and Market Positioning: As one of the fastest-growing vertically integrated cannabis companies in the U.S., Glass House reaffirms its commitment to the California market through this event, aiming to meet consumer demands via continuous brand development and product innovation.
See More
Semiconductor Stocks Surge, Defensive Stocks Under Pressure
- Semiconductor Stocks Shine: Companies like Intel, Micron, and Seagate have surged over 40% in 2026, significantly exceeding their 200-day moving averages, indicating a robust momentum driven by AI and data center trades that are reshaping market dynamics.
- Storage Companies Benefit: Firms such as Seagate and Western Digital are favored by investors due to rising demand for memory and data infrastructure, further solidifying their market positions and reflecting a sustained preference for tech stocks.
- Defensive Stocks Under Pressure: Defensive consumer and healthcare stocks like Zoetis and Abbott are trading significantly below their long-term trends, illustrating a shift in investor preference towards high-beta tech stocks, resulting in severe overselling of these names.
- Cautious Sentiment in Software Sector: IT services and enterprise software companies, including Accenture and ServiceNow, feature prominently on the oversold list, indicating investor caution regarding the software trade amid slowing corporate spending and potential long-term disruptions from generative AI tools.
See More
Cboe Declares $0.72 Quarterly Dividend, Maintains Guidance
- Quarterly Dividend Declaration: Cboe Global Markets has declared a quarterly dividend of $0.72 per share, consistent with previous distributions, payable on June 15, with a record date of May 29 and an ex-dividend date of May 29, demonstrating the company's commitment to shareholder returns amidst stable cash flow.
- Yield Analysis: The forward yield of 0.8% reflects the company's resilience in the current market environment, aiming to attract income-seeking investors while bolstering market confidence in its stock performance.
- Cost Savings Outlook: Cboe anticipates annualized expense savings of $100 million to $120 million by lowering its 2026 adjusted operating expense guidance to between $838 million and $853 million, which will enhance profitability and optimize resource allocation.
- Stock Price Reaction: Following the announcement of headcount reductions and the revised operating expense guidance, Cboe's stock price surged, indicating a positive market reaction to the company's cost control measures, which may further enhance investor confidence in future growth prospects.
See More
Prediction Markets Surge as Retail Investors' New Favorite
- Surge in Participation: Since the 2024 presidential election, monthly notional volume for prediction markets has skyrocketed to over $24 billion, up from less than $5 billion a year ago, indicating strong interest from retail investors in this emerging market.
- Enhanced Competitiveness: The trading volume of prediction markets is now close to that of leveraged exchange-traded products, although it still falls short of the S&P 500's 0DTE options market, which saw nearly $57 trillion in total value traded in March, highlighting the potential of prediction markets in high-risk investment sectors.
- Driven by Younger Investors: A Northwestern Mutual study found that nearly a third of Gen Z and almost a quarter of millennials are currently engaging in prediction markets or sports betting, suggesting that this market is attracting younger investors and may serve as a bridge to equity trading.
- Diverse Trading Opportunities: Prediction markets are considered more approachable due to their binary outcomes and broad range of events to trade, with KKM Financial's Jeff Kilburg noting that this diversity encourages retail investors to participate, further fueling market growth.
See More
