BigBear.ai's Stock Rises Amid Market Strength
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Sep 25 2025
0mins
Source: SeekingAlpha
BigBear.ai Holdings Inc. saw its stock price increase by 7.44% during regular trading, reaching a 20-day high.
Despite the company's reported revenue decline of 19.3% in 2025 and a net loss of approximately $293.9 million, the stock's rise can be attributed to broader market strength, with the Nasdaq-100 up 0.69% and the S&P 500 up 0.47%. This positive market environment may have contributed to investor optimism, even as BigBear.ai faces financial challenges and competitive risks in the AI market.
The implications of this price movement suggest that while BigBear.ai is currently experiencing upward momentum, the underlying financial difficulties and reliance on a limited number of government clients could pose risks in the long term.
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Analyst Views on BBAI
Wall Street analysts forecast BBAI stock price to rise
1 Analyst Rating
0 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Hold
Current: 4.940
Low
6.00
Averages
6.00
High
6.00
Current: 4.940
Low
6.00
Averages
6.00
High
6.00
About BBAI
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. operates as a specialized provider of artificial intelligence (AI) technology. The Company provides decision intelligence solutions for supply chains and logistics, enterprise operations, manned-unmanned teaming in autonomous systems, and cybersecurity. Its solutions include AI orchestration and sensor function, digital identity management, computer vision, cybersecurity, predictive intelligence, modeling & simulation, enterprise automation and professional services. It offers Trueface, which performs one-to-many (1:N) facial matches with real-time photos, delivering identity verification. It also offers veriScan, which captures and transmits real-time photos into a biometric matching service supporting access control and biometric boarding/bag tags. The Company serves homeland & border security, defense, intelligence, manufacturing & suppy chain, travel and trade industries.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- BigBear.ai's Financial Challenges: BigBear.ai reported revenue of approximately $127.7 million in 2025, a 19.3% decline from the previous year, resulting in a net loss of about $293.9 million, highlighting profitability concerns despite a solid backlog of orders.
- Competitive Risk Analysis: Palantir faces competition in the enterprise software market, with termination clauses in government contracts potentially impacting future revenue, while BigBear.ai relies on a small number of government clients, making it vulnerable to budget shifts.
- Valuation Comparison: Palantir's forward P/E ratio stands at 104x, significantly higher than BigBear.ai's 13.5x, indicating the market's higher growth expectations for Palantir, which, despite its expensive valuation, demonstrates competitive advantages through high margins and accelerating revenue growth.
See More
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- Palantir Revenue Growth: In 2025, Palantir reported nearly $4.5 billion in revenue, reflecting a 56.2% year-over-year growth, showcasing its ability to scale software products across over 50 verticals, although customer concentration risk is evident with its top three clients accounting for 16% of total revenue.
- BigBear.ai Financial Challenges: BigBear.ai reported revenue of approximately $127.7 million in 2025, a 19.3% decline from the previous year, resulting in a net loss of about $293.9 million, highlighting profitability concerns despite a solid backlog of orders.
- Market Competition and Risks: Palantir faces competition from large system integrators, with termination clauses in government contracts posing revenue risks, while BigBear.ai relies heavily on a small group of government clients, making it vulnerable to shifts in federal budgets.
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See More
