AST SpaceMobile Reports Earnings Miss, Shares Drop Amid Market Weakness
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Sep 30 2024
0mins
AST SpaceMobile Inc. shares fell 15.23% as the stock crossed below the 5-day SMA, reflecting a significant decline in investor confidence.
The company reported a first-quarter loss of $0.66 per share, much worse than the expected loss of $0.20, with revenue of $14.7 million falling short of analyst estimates of $36.58 million. This disappointing performance, coupled with a sell-off by Rakuten Mobile of approximately 4.5 million shares, has led to a notable drop in stock price amid broader market weakness, particularly as the Nasdaq-100 is down 1.86% and the S&P 500 is down 0.91%.
The implications of this earnings miss are significant, as it raises concerns about AST SpaceMobile's ability to meet future revenue expectations and maintain investor confidence, especially with rising operational costs and capital expenditures.
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Analyst Views on ASTS
Wall Street analysts forecast ASTS stock price to fall
8 Analyst Rating
3 Buy
4 Hold
1 Sell
Hold
Current: 96.230
Low
43.00
Averages
91.68
High
137.00
Current: 96.230
Low
43.00
Averages
91.68
High
137.00
About ASTS
AST SpaceMobile, Inc. is engaged in building a global cellular broadband network in space to operate directly with standard, unmodified mobile devices based on its intellectual property (IP) and patent portfolio and designed for both commercial and government applications. The Company is engaged in designing and developing the constellation of BlueBird (BB) satellites and has planned a space-based Cellular Broadband network distributed through a constellation of low Earth orbit (LEO) satellites. Its SpaceMobile Service is being designed to provide high-speed cellular broadband services to end-users who are out of terrestrial cellular coverage using existing mobile devices. The Company intends to continue testing capabilities of the BW3 test satellite, including further testing with cellular service providers and the government. The Company has operations in India, Scotland, Spain, and Israel.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Fund Performance Review: Crossroads Capital achieved a net gain of 4.2% in Q1 2026, with a compounded annual growth rate of 17.1% since inception, demonstrating the effectiveness of its investment strategy and market adaptability.
- Market Environment Analysis: Despite geopolitical tensions linked to Trump's foreign policy causing a 4.3% drop in the S&P 500, the fund's fundamentals remained aligned with broader market trends, indicating resilience in its investment portfolio.
- AST SpaceMobile Highlights: AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (NASDAQ:ASTS) reported Q1 revenue of $14.7 million, although below consensus, management reaffirmed 2026 revenue guidance of $150-200 million, anticipating at least a doubling in growth.
- Rising Investor Interest: The number of hedge funds holding AST SpaceMobile increased from 25 to 33 by Q1 2026, reflecting growing market confidence in the company, even as other AI stocks are viewed as having greater upside potential.
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- Fund Performance Review: Crossroads Capital achieved a net gain of 4.2% in Q1 2026, with a compounded annual growth rate of 17.1% since inception, demonstrating the effectiveness of its investment strategy and market adaptability.
- Market Environment Analysis: Despite geopolitical tensions linked to Trump's foreign policy causing a 4.3% drop in the S&P 500, the fund's fundamentals remained aligned with broader market trends, indicating resilience in its investment portfolio.
- AST SpaceMobile Highlights: AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (NASDAQ:ASTS) reported Q1 revenue of $14.7 million, although below consensus, management reaffirmed 2026 revenue guidance of $150-200 million, anticipating at least a doubling in growth.
- Rising Investor Interest: The number of hedge funds holding AST SpaceMobile increased from 25 to 33 by Q1 2026, reflecting growing market confidence in the company, even as other AI stocks are viewed as having greater upside potential.
See More
Iranian Delegation Travels to Qatar for Negotiations Amid Conflict
- Market Optimism: U.S. stock futures rose broadly in overnight trading on Monday, with the Nasdaq 100 climbing 0.83%, S&P 500 futures up 0.62%, and Dow futures increasing by 0.59%, reflecting heightened investor confidence amid hopes for a U.S.-Iran peace deal.
- Oil Price Volatility: Oil futures traded below $100 a barrel, with Brent crude futures rising about 1.35% to $97.44, while WTI crude futures fell approximately 5.6% to $91.18, indicating a market response to easing concerns over Middle Eastern energy shocks.
- U.S.-Iran Negotiation Progress: An Iranian delegation has traveled to Qatar for consultations, and President Trump stated on social media that negotiations are “proceeding nicely,” potentially paving the way for a future peace agreement, although he cautioned that failure to reach a deal could lead to renewed conflict.
- Global Market Response: Global stock markets reached record highs on Monday, despite U.S. markets being closed for Memorial Day, as investors remain attentive to potential shifts in Federal Reserve policy amid rising inflation concerns.
See More
Alphabet Invests Over $1 Billion in CME Group
- Portfolio Shift: Alphabet's latest 13F filing reveals that while it still holds 8,943,486 shares of AST SpaceMobile, it is no longer its largest holding, replaced by CME Group, indicating Alphabet's strategic pivot towards the financial services sector.
- CME Group Investment: In Q1, Alphabet purchased 3,484,020 shares of CME Group worth approximately $1.03 billion, reflecting its recognition of CME's dominance and uniqueness in the financial derivatives market, which is expected to drive future revenue growth.
- Market Share Advantage: CME Group commands about 90% of the U.S. futures market share, and its technology-driven trading platforms have achieved double-digit sales growth, with gross margins trending into the mid-80% range, showcasing its strong profitability and competitive edge.
- Strategic Partnership: The 10-year partnership between Alphabet and CME Group allows Alphabet to leverage Google Cloud's infrastructure, facilitating the cloud and AI transformation in financial services, thereby enhancing Alphabet's investment return potential in fintech.
See More
Google Invests in CME Group as AST SpaceMobile Loses Top Spot
- Portfolio Shift: Alphabet's latest 13F filing reveals that AST SpaceMobile still constitutes over 18% of its $4 billion investment portfolio, despite no longer being its largest holding, indicating Alphabet's continued confidence in the company.
- CME Group Investment: Alphabet's purchase of 3,484,020 shares of CME Group, valued at over $1 billion in Q1, underscores its focus on the financial services sector and strengthens its market position through a long-term partnership with CME.
- Market Share Advantage: CME Group commands approximately 90% of the U.S. futures market share, with its technology-driven trading platform achieving double-digit sales growth each quarter, highlighting its unique competitive edge in financial derivatives trading.
- Challenges for AST SpaceMobile: Although AST SpaceMobile has partnered with over 50 global mobile network providers, its capital-intensive operating model and high satellite production costs may impact future profitability, especially amid increasing market competition.
See More
Surge in Space ETFs Captivates Retail Investors
- Investor Enthusiasm: According to Vanda's report, retail investors are purchasing space-related funds at the fastest rate since 2021, with the Procure Space ETF (UFO) emerging as the standout favorite, indicating strong market interest in the space economy.
- Significant Capital Inflow: Over the past month, space-focused ETFs have attracted $1.3 billion in new capital, raising the total assets under management in this sector to $3.3 billion, reflecting investor optimism about the future of the space economy.
- Redwire's Strong Performance: Redwire (RDW) saw net buying of over $25 million this week, hitting record highs and gaining for the third consecutive week, indicating strong market interest in the company, especially with SpaceX's upcoming IPO.
- Emerging Products: Since the launch of UFO in 2019, six new ETFs have joined the space economy bandwagon, with the Tema Space Innovators ETF (NASA) accumulating over $1.27 billion in assets within seven weeks of its launch, showcasing investor enthusiasm for the burgeoning space market.
See More
Surge in Space-Themed ETFs Ahead of SpaceX IPO
- Surge in Inflows: Space-related ETFs attracted $1.3 billion in new cash over the past month, pushing total assets under management to $3.3 billion, reflecting strong investor interest and expectations for future growth in the space economy.
- Rapid Product Launches: Following SpaceX's announcement of a 2026 IPO, six new space-themed ETFs have emerged, with the Tema Space Innovators ETF accumulating $1.27 billion in assets within just seven weeks, indicating a pressing demand for space investment products.
- Positive Market Response: While SpaceX's IPO garners significant attention, other companies like Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile have seen stock gains of 393% and 258% over the past year, demonstrating the growing recognition of investment potential in the space economy.
- Overlap Risks Raised: Despite impressive recent returns, analysts caution that the space economy remains a niche market, with existing ETFs showing over 50% overlap in holdings, potentially exposing investors to concentration risks.
See More
