Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc (ARI) saw its shares rise by 5.63% after crossing above the 5-day SMA, reflecting a strong market response to the recent sale of a ~$9 billion loan portfolio to Athene Holding.
The sale, which was based on 99.7% of total loan commitments, indicates ARI's strong market positioning. Following the announcement, ARI's shares surged 4.35% in pre-market trading, reflecting increased investor confidence in the company's prospects. The company expects to have ~$1.4 billion in net cash post-transaction, allowing for future investments and strategic acquisitions.
This transaction not only strengthens ARI's cash flow but also positions the company for potential growth through strategic evaluations of commercial real estate-related strategies, including M&A opportunities.
Wall Street analysts forecast ARI stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ARI is 10.56 USD with a low forecast of 9.50 USD and a high forecast of 11.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
4 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast ARI stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ARI is 10.56 USD with a low forecast of 9.50 USD and a high forecast of 11.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
3 Buy
0 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 10.950
Low
9.50
Averages
10.56
High
11.00
Current: 10.950
Low
9.50
Averages
10.56
High
11.00
JPMorgan
Overweight
maintain
$11 -> $12
2026-01-23
Reason
JPMorgan
Price Target
$11 -> $12
AI Analysis
2026-01-23
maintain
Overweight
Reason
JPMorgan raised the firm's price target on Apollo Commercial to $12 from $11 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm adjusted targets in the mortgage real estate investment trust group a part of a Q4 preview. The macro environment for REITs remains "mixed but still favorable," with the U.S. economy showing resilience even as inflation tracks above policy targets, the analyst tells investors in a research note. JPMorgan keeps a "selective and risk-aware stance across the REIT sector."
Keefe Bruyette
Outperform
downgrade
$11
2025-11-06
Reason
Keefe Bruyette
Price Target
$11
2025-11-06
downgrade
Outperform
Reason
Keefe Bruyette lowered the firm's price target on Apollo Commercial to $10.75 from $11 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for ARI
Unlock Now
JPMorgan
Richard Shane
Buy
maintain
$11
2025-11-03
Reason
JPMorgan
Richard Shane
Price Target
$11
2025-11-03
maintain
Buy
Reason
JPMorgan analyst Richard Shane raised the firm's price target on Apollo Commercial to $11 from $10.50 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares.
JPMorgan
Neutral -> Overweight
upgrade
$10
2025-10-20
Reason
JPMorgan
Price Target
$10
2025-10-20
upgrade
Neutral -> Overweight
Reason
JPMorgan upgraded Apollo Commercial to Overweight from Neutral with a price target of $10.50, up from $10. The firm believes the company has made progress resolving its "troubled" loans and is well positioned to redeploy capital into interest earning assets. As Apollo Commercial's portfolio returns to growth mode, it creates a setup for higher net interest income and greater earnings potential, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
About ARI
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. is a real estate investment trust. The Company primarily originates, acquires, invests in and manages performing commercial first mortgage loans, subordinate financings and other commercial real estate-related debt investments. Its principal business objective is to acquire its target assets in order to provide attractive risk- adjusted returns to its stockholders over the long term, primarily through dividends and secondarily through capital appreciation. Its investment strategy is to identify opportunities within its target assets through its manager and its affiliates as well as their platform, which integrates real estate experience with private equity and capital markets in transaction sourcing, underwriting, execution, asset operation, management and disposition. It targets assets that are secured by real estate throughout the United States and Europe. The Company is externally managed and advised by ACREFI Management, LLC.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
