Affirm partners with Bolt to enhance BNPL services
Affirm Holdings Inc. has seen its stock drop 4.92% and hit a 20-day low amid a broader market decline, with the Nasdaq-100 down 2.24% and the S&P 500 down 1.41%.
The company announced a strategic partnership with Bolt, making Affirm the default buy now, pay later provider across Bolt's U.S. checkout experience. This integration is expected to enhance merchant sales conversion rates and customer satisfaction by simplifying the checkout process and offering flexible payment options. Additionally, Needham analyst Kyle Peterson upgraded Affirm's rating from Hold to Buy, with a price target of $100, reflecting optimism about the company's growth potential.
This partnership with Bolt is likely to attract more shoppers and drive merchant sales growth, positioning Affirm favorably in the competitive e-commerce landscape.
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- Seller Dominance: A widely watched signal among institutional traders indicates that Affirm's stock is currently trading at $52, below the critical $54.32 short-term moving average, suggesting that sellers are in control in the near term, potentially leading to further declines.
- Key Resistance Level: The failure to reclaim the $54 resistance is significant, as the stock attempted to stabilize after a steep sell-off from January's highs near $83, but each bounce has been capped below this level, indicating weakening buyer conviction and confirming seller control of the short-term trend.
- Support Focus: The $50 level has emerged as the most important near-term support zone, and a decisive break below this psychological level could open the door to the lower Bollinger Band near $47, representing the next major technical support area and increasing the risk of further declines in the market.
- Technical Indicators Suggest Fragility: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near 30, placing the stock close to oversold territory, and while this could allow for short-term relief rallies, sustained upside would likely require reclaiming the $54 level to shift momentum back in favor of buyers.
- Enhanced Payment Flexibility: Lowe's is expanding its checkout options by partnering with Affirm to introduce buy-now-pay-later plans, allowing customers to split home improvement purchases into biweekly or monthly payments, with some plans starting at 0% APR, which is expected to attract more consumers and boost sales.
- Instant Decision and Transparent Fees: Affirm promises customers an instant decision at checkout and upfront visibility of the total repayment amount, with no compounding interest, late fees, or hidden charges, enhancing customer trust and facilitating purchasing decisions.
- Market Reach Expansion: Lowe's will be featured in Affirm's marketplace, which is expected to help Lowe's reach new shoppers, further expanding its market share; Affirm's merchant network is nearing 478,000, showcasing the widespread adoption of its payment tools.
- Analyst Divergence: While JPMorgan analysts express optimism about Affirm's profitability and have raised its full-year profit margin guidance to nearly 9%, they caution that the fourth-quarter outlook indicates a “meaningful deceleration,” which could impact stock performance, as evidenced by Lowe's 2.04% share price decline.
- Software Sector Pressure: The iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF (IGV) has fallen nearly 16% over the past month due to fears that AI will diminish demand for software services, leading to a decline in investor confidence in the sector.
- Financial Sector Turmoil: The State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF) dropped 4.8% last week, marking its worst weekly performance since April, as concerns over Altruist's new AI tax planning tool raised fears about the demand for financial services.
- Office Real Estate Impacted: Stocks in commercial real estate were crushed on Thursday amid concerns that AI could lead to rising unemployment, thereby decreasing demand for office space, reflecting a pessimistic outlook from investors regarding future market conditions.
- Logistics Sector Decline: Investors believe that AI could curb freight inefficiencies, leading to reduced demand for the logistics industry, resulting in a drop in related stock prices and showcasing widespread concerns about the impact of AI across various sectors.
- Strong Performance: Affirm Holdings reported fiscal Q2 revenues and volumes exceeding expectations, prompting management to raise its fiscal 2026 guidance, indicating resilience in the market.
- Growth Outlook Adjustment: While the company anticipates 32%-33% volume growth for fiscal 2026, surpassing the consensus estimate of 29%, analysts expressed disappointment over the fourth quarter's GMV performance, suggesting risks of slowing growth.
- Analyst Rating Changes: JPMorgan analyst Reginald Smith maintained an Overweight rating on Affirm but reduced the price target from $94 to $79, reflecting a cautious outlook on future growth.
- Market Reaction: Affirm's shares fell 1.26% to $59.42 in premarket trading on Friday, indicating investor concerns regarding the company's slowing growth trajectory.
- Earnings Beat: Affirm reported earnings per share of 37 cents for Q2, surpassing the consensus estimate of 30 cents, indicating improved profitability that may attract more investor interest.
- Significant Revenue Growth: The company posted revenue of $1.12 billion, exceeding the expected $1.05 billion, demonstrating strong business expansion and market demand, which is likely to drive stock price appreciation.
- Customer and Merchant Growth: Active customers increased by 23% to 25.8 million, while active merchants rose by 42% to 478,000, showcasing Affirm's competitive edge and appeal in the market, potentially laying the groundwork for future revenue growth.
- Guidance Upgrade: Affirm raised its fiscal year 2026 revenue guidance to between $4.08 billion and $4.14 billion, reflecting confidence in future performance, which may enhance market sentiment towards its stock.
- Stock Performance: Affirm Holdings' stock declined on Friday despite reporting strong fiscal second-quarter earnings.
- Analyst Opinions: Some analysts believe the market reaction to the earnings report is unjustified.











