We Did The Math MDYG Can Go To $96
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: May 19 2025
0mins
Should l Buy TOL?
Source: NASDAQ.COM
ETF Analysis: The SPDR S&P 400 Mid Cap Growth ETF (MDYG) has an implied analyst target price of $96.14, indicating an 11.13% potential upside from its current trading price of $86.51.
Stock Performance Insights: Notable underlying holdings like Toll Brothers Inc., Permian Resources Corp, and Valaris Ltd show significant upside potential based on analyst targets, raising questions about the validity and optimism of these projections.
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Analyst Views on TOL
Wall Street analysts forecast TOL stock price to fall
13 Analyst Rating
7 Buy
5 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 153.660
Low
110.00
Averages
150.00
High
181.00
Current: 153.660
Low
110.00
Averages
150.00
High
181.00
About TOL
Toll Brothers, Inc. is a builder of luxury homes. The Company builds new homes and communities in over 60 markets across the United States, serving first-time, move-up, active-adult, and second-home buyers. The Company also operates its own architectural, engineering, mortgage, title, land development, smart home technology, landscape, and building components manufacturing businesses. It designs, builds, markets, sells, and arranges financing for an array of luxury residential single-family detached, attached, master-planned, resort-style golf, and urban low-, mid-, and high-rise communities. It also develops and operates urban and suburban for-rent apartment and student housing communities (Apartment Living) primarily through joint ventures. These projects are located in various metropolitan areas throughout the country and have generally been operated or developed with partners under the brand names Toll Brothers Apartment Living and Toll Brothers Campus Living.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Toll Brothers Launches Regency at Rockhill Ridge for Active Adults
- Community Launch: Toll Brothers has unveiled the Regency at Rockhill Ridge community in Sellersville, Pennsylvania, designed for active adults aged 55 and over, featuring 72 low-maintenance luxury townhomes priced from the mid-$500,000s, catering to high-end market demand.
- Luxury Living Space: Each home offers approximately 1,920 square feet with a first-floor primary suite, aimed at providing comfort and convenience, appealing to buyers seeking a low-maintenance lifestyle and further solidifying Toll Brothers' leadership in the luxury housing market.
- Personalized Design Experience: The community includes a Toll Brothers Design Studio where customers can choose from a wide array of options with the assistance of professional design consultants, enhancing customer satisfaction and accelerating the sales process.
- Prime Location: The Regency community is situated near shopping and dining areas, featuring walking trails and a bocce court, providing a serene living environment that attracts buyers looking for convenience, thereby increasing the community's market appeal.
See More
Toll Brothers Launches New Luxury Community in Texas
- Community Launch: Toll Brothers announces the upcoming sale of its Oakhill Reserve community in Tomball, Texas, expected to open in spring 2026 with homes starting from the upper $300,000s, catering to the luxury market demand.
- Home Designs: The community will feature the Foxtail and Longleaf collections of single-family homes, offering up to 3,200 square feet of living space with modern architectural designs and personalization options, appealing to diverse buyer lifestyles.
- Amenities: Residents will enjoy new onsite amenities including a resort-style pool, pickleball courts, walking trails, and playgrounds, enhancing quality of life while being conveniently located near shopping and entertainment in downtown Tomball.
- Market Recognition: Toll Brothers has been named one of Fortune magazine's Most Admired Companies for 2026, underscoring its leadership and brand influence in the luxury home market.
See More
U.S. Lawmakers Propose Reducing Capital Gains Tax on Home Sales
- Legislative Proposal Background: Senators Ted Cruz and Tim Scott have urged the Treasury Secretary to reduce capital gains taxes on home sales by indexing the asset basis to inflation, aiming to incentivize long-term homeowners to sell and increase housing supply for young families.
- Housing Supply Gap: According to Realtor.com, the U.S. housing supply gap is projected to reach 4.03 million homes by 2025, up from 3.8 million in 2024, highlighting the urgent demand for housing, which lawmakers hope to address through tax reform.
- Bill Details: The bipartisan 'More Homes on the Market Act' introduced in 2025 proposes to double the capital gains exemptions for primary home sales to $500,000 for single filers and $1 million for married couples, adjusting these figures annually for inflation to alleviate tax burdens on homeowners.
- Divergent Expert Opinions: While some conservative organizations support the bill, arguing it could stimulate home sales, experts express skepticism, suggesting that expanding capital gains exemptions would have little impact on senior households and may not effectively resolve the housing supply issue.
See More
Truist Predicts Decline in Home Builder Revenue This Year, Yet Recommends These 4 Stocks for Purchase.
Home-builder revenue forecast: Home-builder revenue is expected to decline significantly in 2026 due to ongoing pressures in the housing market.
Investor opportunities: Despite the revenue drop, the situation presents a favorable opportunity for investors looking to target specific builders.
See More
Latest Ratings and Price Targets on Wall Street
- nLIGHT Coverage Initiation: Baird initiates coverage of nLIGHT with an Outperform rating and a $95 price target, citing favorable market trends and robust funding that support growth, particularly enhanced by the company's vertical integration and technological strengths.
- Apple's New Product Launch: Oppenheimer reiterates Apple as Perform, highlighting the new MacBook Pro lines powered by M5 Pro and M5 Max chips, which signify a new era of local AI computing and reinforce Apple's significant lead in efficiency and scalability in personal computing devices.
- PulteGroup and Toll Brothers Ratings: Truist initiates PulteGroup and Toll Brothers with Buy ratings, setting a price target of $170, as they believe the market is significantly undervaluing both companies' profitability potential, especially in the context of a recovering luxury housing market.
- Tesla and General Motors Upgrades: Bank of America upgrades Tesla to Buy with a $460 price target, viewing it as the leader in consumer autonomy, while reinstating General Motors as Buy, expecting benefits from lower warranty costs and regulatory credits.
See More
Truist Initiates Buy Rating on Toll Brothers with $190 Price Target
- Investment Rating Upgrade: Truist has initiated a buy rating on Toll Brothers with a $190 price target, indicating a 24% upside, reflecting strong market confidence in the company.
- Market Positioning Advantage: Analysts highlight that Toll Brothers' focus on the luxury home market differentiates it from competitors, and its higher price point has helped it achieve category leader status, suggesting continued stable performance.
- Future Growth Potential: Analysts believe that Toll Brothers will benefit from a rebound in the luxury home market in 2027, and its limited competition compared to low-end builders showcases its unique position in the market.
- Strong Stock Performance: Toll Brothers' shares have risen 14% this year and 42% over the past 12 months, indicating investor recognition of its long-term growth potential, especially amid the structural undersupply of homes in the U.S.
See More
Toll Brothers Launches Regency at Rockhill Ridge for Active Adults
- Community Launch: Toll Brothers has unveiled the Regency at Rockhill Ridge community in Sellersville, Pennsylvania, designed for active adults aged 55 and over, featuring 72 low-maintenance luxury townhomes priced from the mid-$500,000s, catering to high-end market demand.
- Luxury Living Space: Each home offers approximately 1,920 square feet with a first-floor primary suite, aimed at providing comfort and convenience, appealing to buyers seeking a low-maintenance lifestyle and further solidifying Toll Brothers' leadership in the luxury housing market.
- Personalized Design Experience: The community includes a Toll Brothers Design Studio where customers can choose from a wide array of options with the assistance of professional design consultants, enhancing customer satisfaction and accelerating the sales process.
- Prime Location: The Regency community is situated near shopping and dining areas, featuring walking trails and a bocce court, providing a serene living environment that attracts buyers looking for convenience, thereby increasing the community's market appeal.
See More
Toll Brothers Launches New Luxury Community in Texas
- Community Launch: Toll Brothers announces the upcoming sale of its Oakhill Reserve community in Tomball, Texas, expected to open in spring 2026 with homes starting from the upper $300,000s, catering to the luxury market demand.
- Home Designs: The community will feature the Foxtail and Longleaf collections of single-family homes, offering up to 3,200 square feet of living space with modern architectural designs and personalization options, appealing to diverse buyer lifestyles.
- Amenities: Residents will enjoy new onsite amenities including a resort-style pool, pickleball courts, walking trails, and playgrounds, enhancing quality of life while being conveniently located near shopping and entertainment in downtown Tomball.
- Market Recognition: Toll Brothers has been named one of Fortune magazine's Most Admired Companies for 2026, underscoring its leadership and brand influence in the luxury home market.
See More
U.S. Lawmakers Propose Reducing Capital Gains Tax on Home Sales
- Legislative Proposal Background: Senators Ted Cruz and Tim Scott have urged the Treasury Secretary to reduce capital gains taxes on home sales by indexing the asset basis to inflation, aiming to incentivize long-term homeowners to sell and increase housing supply for young families.
- Housing Supply Gap: According to Realtor.com, the U.S. housing supply gap is projected to reach 4.03 million homes by 2025, up from 3.8 million in 2024, highlighting the urgent demand for housing, which lawmakers hope to address through tax reform.
- Bill Details: The bipartisan 'More Homes on the Market Act' introduced in 2025 proposes to double the capital gains exemptions for primary home sales to $500,000 for single filers and $1 million for married couples, adjusting these figures annually for inflation to alleviate tax burdens on homeowners.
- Divergent Expert Opinions: While some conservative organizations support the bill, arguing it could stimulate home sales, experts express skepticism, suggesting that expanding capital gains exemptions would have little impact on senior households and may not effectively resolve the housing supply issue.
See More
Truist Predicts Decline in Home Builder Revenue This Year, Yet Recommends These 4 Stocks for Purchase.
Home-builder revenue forecast: Home-builder revenue is expected to decline significantly in 2026 due to ongoing pressures in the housing market.
Investor opportunities: Despite the revenue drop, the situation presents a favorable opportunity for investors looking to target specific builders.
See More
Latest Ratings and Price Targets on Wall Street
- nLIGHT Coverage Initiation: Baird initiates coverage of nLIGHT with an Outperform rating and a $95 price target, citing favorable market trends and robust funding that support growth, particularly enhanced by the company's vertical integration and technological strengths.
- Apple's New Product Launch: Oppenheimer reiterates Apple as Perform, highlighting the new MacBook Pro lines powered by M5 Pro and M5 Max chips, which signify a new era of local AI computing and reinforce Apple's significant lead in efficiency and scalability in personal computing devices.
- PulteGroup and Toll Brothers Ratings: Truist initiates PulteGroup and Toll Brothers with Buy ratings, setting a price target of $170, as they believe the market is significantly undervaluing both companies' profitability potential, especially in the context of a recovering luxury housing market.
- Tesla and General Motors Upgrades: Bank of America upgrades Tesla to Buy with a $460 price target, viewing it as the leader in consumer autonomy, while reinstating General Motors as Buy, expecting benefits from lower warranty costs and regulatory credits.
See More
Truist Initiates Buy Rating on Toll Brothers with $190 Price Target
- Investment Rating Upgrade: Truist has initiated a buy rating on Toll Brothers with a $190 price target, indicating a 24% upside, reflecting strong market confidence in the company.
- Market Positioning Advantage: Analysts highlight that Toll Brothers' focus on the luxury home market differentiates it from competitors, and its higher price point has helped it achieve category leader status, suggesting continued stable performance.
- Future Growth Potential: Analysts believe that Toll Brothers will benefit from a rebound in the luxury home market in 2027, and its limited competition compared to low-end builders showcases its unique position in the market.
- Strong Stock Performance: Toll Brothers' shares have risen 14% this year and 42% over the past 12 months, indicating investor recognition of its long-term growth potential, especially amid the structural undersupply of homes in the U.S.
See More
