We Did The Math MDYG Can Go To $96
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: May 19 2025
0mins
Should l Buy TOL?
Source: NASDAQ.COM
ETF Analysis: The SPDR S&P 400 Mid Cap Growth ETF (MDYG) has an implied analyst target price of $96.14, indicating an 11.13% potential upside from its current trading price of $86.51.
Stock Performance Insights: Notable underlying holdings like Toll Brothers Inc., Permian Resources Corp, and Valaris Ltd show significant upside potential based on analyst targets, raising questions about the validity and optimism of these projections.
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Analyst Views on TOL
Wall Street analysts forecast TOL stock price to rise
13 Analyst Rating
7 Buy
5 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 136.460
Low
110.00
Averages
150.00
High
181.00
Current: 136.460
Low
110.00
Averages
150.00
High
181.00
About TOL
Toll Brothers, Inc. is a builder of luxury homes. The Company builds new homes and communities in over 60 markets across the United States, serving first-time, move-up, active-adult, and second-home buyers. The Company also operates its own architectural, engineering, mortgage, title, land development, smart home technology, landscape, and building components manufacturing businesses. It designs, builds, markets, sells, and arranges financing for an array of luxury residential single-family detached, attached, master-planned, resort-style golf, and urban low-, mid-, and high-rise communities. It also develops and operates urban and suburban for-rent apartment and student housing communities (Apartment Living) primarily through joint ventures. These projects are located in various metropolitan areas throughout the country and have generally been operated or developed with partners under the brand names Toll Brothers Apartment Living and Toll Brothers Campus Living.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Toll Brothers Announces Upcoming MeadowRock Community in Colorado
- Community Launch: Toll Brothers has announced that its newest community, MeadowRock, will open for sale in spring 2026 in unincorporated Douglas County, east of Parker, Colorado, catering to the luxury market's demand for spacious homes.
- Diverse Home Designs: The community will feature homes ranging from 3,353 to 6,073 square feet, with select designs offering unique structural options like attached RV garages, addressing buyers' needs for versatility and space.
- Personalization Services: Homebuyers can personalize their dream homes at the Toll Brothers Design Studio, choosing from a wide array of selections, which enhances customer satisfaction and strengthens brand loyalty.
- Prime Location: Located within the acclaimed Douglas County School District, MeadowRock is just a 5-minute drive from Parker, providing a tranquil living environment while remaining conveniently close to shopping, dining, and major commuter routes, attracting more high-end buyers.
See More
Impact of Iran War on US Housing Market
- Rising Mortgage Rates: The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage has surged from 5.99% to 6.5% due to the war with Iran, severely undermining the anticipated improvement in housing affordability and leading to a 5% drop in mortgage applications.
- Sales Forecast Downgrade: Zillow initially projected a 4.3% increase in existing home sales for 2026, but rising energy prices and inflation concerns have introduced new uncertainties, potentially reducing the sales growth to just 1.21%.
- New Construction Market Struggles: KB Home has lowered its full-year sales forecast following disappointing quarterly earnings, citing that net orders in Q1 fell below necessary levels, reflecting heightened consumer challenges exacerbated by the Middle East conflict.
- Supply-Demand Imbalance: The cancellation rate of home contracts has reached its highest since 2017, with approximately 13.7% of contracts canceled in February, resulting in over 600,000 more sellers than buyers in the market, creating a precarious and unstable housing environment.
See More
Toll Brothers Announces Final Opportunity to Purchase Homes at Vista Rose
- Final Home Buying Opportunity: Toll Brothers announces that only a few luxury homes remain available for purchase at the Vista Rose community, including two professionally decorated and landscaped model homes priced from $1.9 million, marking the last chance for buyers in this highly sought-after community.
- Home Features: These model homes offer 4 bedrooms, 3.5 baths, and up to 2,195 square feet of living space, with modern two-story layouts that blend style and functionality, featuring luxurious finishes and meticulously designed outdoor living spaces ideal for entertaining and relaxation.
- Prime Location: The Vista Rose community is situated in north Orange County, providing walkability to dining, shopping centers, and parks, along with convenient access to freeways and John Wayne Airport, enhancing residents' convenience and community appeal.
- Company Recognition: Toll Brothers has been named one of Fortune magazine's Most Admired Companies for 2026, achieving this honor for the ninth consecutive year, underscoring its leadership position and exceptional quality in the luxury home market.
See More
Significant Premarket Moves in U.S. Stocks
- Fertilizer Price Fluctuation: CF Industries' shares fell nearly 4% as reports indicated that negotiations surrounding the U.S.-Iran war could signal an end to commodity shortages, despite a 27% increase since the conflict began.
- Chip Innovation: Arm's stock rose 13% after unveiling its first in-house chip, projecting $15 billion in revenue by 2031, highlighting its strong growth potential in the semiconductor market.
- Acquisition Deal: Terns Pharmaceuticals saw shares gain over 5% after Merck agreed to acquire the biopharma company for $53 per share in cash, valuing the deal at $6.7 billion, expected to close in Q2.
- Stock Buyback Plan: Robinhood's stock jumped 4% after announcing a $1.5 billion stock buyback plan, set to be executed over three years, aimed at enhancing shareholder value.
See More
KB Home's Strategic Shift May Drive Profit Growth
- Market Performance Rating: Citizens JMP Securities initiates coverage on KB Home with an outperform rating and a 12-month price target of $77, indicating a potential upside of approximately 45%, reflecting the analyst's view that the stock is undervalued at current levels.
- Product Mix Adjustment: KB Home is shifting its product mix back towards build-to-order homes, which are expected to provide a long-term gross margin tailwind, particularly as demand for BTO homes has improved recently, indicating the effectiveness of the company's strategic pivot.
- Competitive Advantage: KB Home's operations in California face muted competition in most markets, providing opportunities for further market share and profit enhancement, especially with a potential rebound in gross profit margins anticipated in the fiscal year ending November 30, 2027.
- Analyst Opinion Divergence: Despite Citizens' contrarian view, only three out of 17 analysts covering KB Home on Wall Street rate it a buy, highlighting a significant divergence in market sentiment, with an average price target of $60 suggesting a 13% upside.
See More
US Stocks Surge as Oil Prices Plunge Over 10%
- Oil Price Plunge Fuels Market Surge: US stocks rallied sharply with the S&P 500 up 1.15%, the Dow Jones up 1.38%, and the Nasdaq 100 up 1.22%, as President Trump postponed strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure, alleviating geopolitical tensions and boosting investor sentiment.
- Bond Yields Decline: The 10-year Treasury yield fell from an 8-month high of 4.44% to 4.33%, providing support for equities as concerns over inflation pressures eased, which could influence future monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve.
- Mixed International Market Reactions: While US markets surged, European markets showed mixed results, with the Eurozone consumer confidence index dropping to a nearly 2.5-year low of -16.3, indicating economic uncertainty that may affect future investment strategies.
- Strong Performance from Tech Stocks: The so-called
See More
Toll Brothers Announces Upcoming MeadowRock Community in Colorado
- Community Launch: Toll Brothers has announced that its newest community, MeadowRock, will open for sale in spring 2026 in unincorporated Douglas County, east of Parker, Colorado, catering to the luxury market's demand for spacious homes.
- Diverse Home Designs: The community will feature homes ranging from 3,353 to 6,073 square feet, with select designs offering unique structural options like attached RV garages, addressing buyers' needs for versatility and space.
- Personalization Services: Homebuyers can personalize their dream homes at the Toll Brothers Design Studio, choosing from a wide array of selections, which enhances customer satisfaction and strengthens brand loyalty.
- Prime Location: Located within the acclaimed Douglas County School District, MeadowRock is just a 5-minute drive from Parker, providing a tranquil living environment while remaining conveniently close to shopping, dining, and major commuter routes, attracting more high-end buyers.
See More
Impact of Iran War on US Housing Market
- Rising Mortgage Rates: The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage has surged from 5.99% to 6.5% due to the war with Iran, severely undermining the anticipated improvement in housing affordability and leading to a 5% drop in mortgage applications.
- Sales Forecast Downgrade: Zillow initially projected a 4.3% increase in existing home sales for 2026, but rising energy prices and inflation concerns have introduced new uncertainties, potentially reducing the sales growth to just 1.21%.
- New Construction Market Struggles: KB Home has lowered its full-year sales forecast following disappointing quarterly earnings, citing that net orders in Q1 fell below necessary levels, reflecting heightened consumer challenges exacerbated by the Middle East conflict.
- Supply-Demand Imbalance: The cancellation rate of home contracts has reached its highest since 2017, with approximately 13.7% of contracts canceled in February, resulting in over 600,000 more sellers than buyers in the market, creating a precarious and unstable housing environment.
See More
Toll Brothers Announces Final Opportunity to Purchase Homes at Vista Rose
- Final Home Buying Opportunity: Toll Brothers announces that only a few luxury homes remain available for purchase at the Vista Rose community, including two professionally decorated and landscaped model homes priced from $1.9 million, marking the last chance for buyers in this highly sought-after community.
- Home Features: These model homes offer 4 bedrooms, 3.5 baths, and up to 2,195 square feet of living space, with modern two-story layouts that blend style and functionality, featuring luxurious finishes and meticulously designed outdoor living spaces ideal for entertaining and relaxation.
- Prime Location: The Vista Rose community is situated in north Orange County, providing walkability to dining, shopping centers, and parks, along with convenient access to freeways and John Wayne Airport, enhancing residents' convenience and community appeal.
- Company Recognition: Toll Brothers has been named one of Fortune magazine's Most Admired Companies for 2026, achieving this honor for the ninth consecutive year, underscoring its leadership position and exceptional quality in the luxury home market.
See More
Significant Premarket Moves in U.S. Stocks
- Fertilizer Price Fluctuation: CF Industries' shares fell nearly 4% as reports indicated that negotiations surrounding the U.S.-Iran war could signal an end to commodity shortages, despite a 27% increase since the conflict began.
- Chip Innovation: Arm's stock rose 13% after unveiling its first in-house chip, projecting $15 billion in revenue by 2031, highlighting its strong growth potential in the semiconductor market.
- Acquisition Deal: Terns Pharmaceuticals saw shares gain over 5% after Merck agreed to acquire the biopharma company for $53 per share in cash, valuing the deal at $6.7 billion, expected to close in Q2.
- Stock Buyback Plan: Robinhood's stock jumped 4% after announcing a $1.5 billion stock buyback plan, set to be executed over three years, aimed at enhancing shareholder value.
See More
KB Home's Strategic Shift May Drive Profit Growth
- Market Performance Rating: Citizens JMP Securities initiates coverage on KB Home with an outperform rating and a 12-month price target of $77, indicating a potential upside of approximately 45%, reflecting the analyst's view that the stock is undervalued at current levels.
- Product Mix Adjustment: KB Home is shifting its product mix back towards build-to-order homes, which are expected to provide a long-term gross margin tailwind, particularly as demand for BTO homes has improved recently, indicating the effectiveness of the company's strategic pivot.
- Competitive Advantage: KB Home's operations in California face muted competition in most markets, providing opportunities for further market share and profit enhancement, especially with a potential rebound in gross profit margins anticipated in the fiscal year ending November 30, 2027.
- Analyst Opinion Divergence: Despite Citizens' contrarian view, only three out of 17 analysts covering KB Home on Wall Street rate it a buy, highlighting a significant divergence in market sentiment, with an average price target of $60 suggesting a 13% upside.
See More
US Stocks Surge as Oil Prices Plunge Over 10%
- Oil Price Plunge Fuels Market Surge: US stocks rallied sharply with the S&P 500 up 1.15%, the Dow Jones up 1.38%, and the Nasdaq 100 up 1.22%, as President Trump postponed strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure, alleviating geopolitical tensions and boosting investor sentiment.
- Bond Yields Decline: The 10-year Treasury yield fell from an 8-month high of 4.44% to 4.33%, providing support for equities as concerns over inflation pressures eased, which could influence future monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve.
- Mixed International Market Reactions: While US markets surged, European markets showed mixed results, with the Eurozone consumer confidence index dropping to a nearly 2.5-year low of -16.3, indicating economic uncertainty that may affect future investment strategies.
- Strong Performance from Tech Stocks: The so-called
See More
