Wall Street Deciphers Trump's Brinkmanship Strategy
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Apr 08 2026
0mins
Should l Buy CBOE?
Source: CNBC
- Market Reaction Pattern: As investors increasingly believe that Trump's escalation tactics follow a familiar script, the so-called TACO trade (Trump Always Chickens Out) begins to shape market positioning, with traders buying on weakness in anticipation of an eventual off-ramp, demonstrating the market's adaptation to Trump's threats.
- Oil and Stock Volatility: Trump's pause on planned strikes against Iran just minutes before the deadline led to a surge in stocks, with the S&P 500 rising 3.4% after six weeks of declines, while oil prices tumbled, reflecting that the market had already anticipated this news.
- Increased Investor Confidence: As geopolitical-driven selling has become progressively muted, investor confidence in the TACO trade has grown, with the market's response to extreme threats becoming increasingly subdued, indicating a reassessment of risks based on historical experiences.
- Policy Constraint Risks: The market's diminishing reaction to Trump's aggressive rhetoric may weaken its role as a policy constraint, raising the risk of further brinkmanship, with analysts warning that this situation could lead to more dangerous outcomes.
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Analyst Views on CBOE
Wall Street analysts forecast CBOE stock price to fall
8 Analyst Rating
2 Buy
5 Hold
1 Sell
Hold
Current: 309.380
Low
240.00
Averages
290.86
High
317.00
Current: 309.380
Low
240.00
Averages
290.86
High
317.00
About CBOE
Cboe Global Markets, Inc. is a derivatives and securities exchange network delivering trading, clearing, and investment solutions. The Company provides trading solutions and products in equities, derivatives, and foreign exchange (FX). Its segments include Options, North American Equities, Europe and Asia Pacific, Futures, and Global FX. The Options segment includes options on market indices, as well as on the stocks of individual corporations and on exchange-traded products (ETPs) such as exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and exchange-traded notes (ETNs), which are multi-listed options and listed on a non-exclusive basis. The North American Equities segment includes United States equities and ETP transaction services that occur on fully electronic exchanges. The Europe and Asia Pacific segment includes derivatives transaction services, ETPs, including exchange-traded funds, exchange-traded notes, exchange-traded commodities, and international depository receipts.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Shell plc Announces Share Buyback Program Details
- Share Buyback Volume: On April 17, 2026, Shell plc repurchased 856,258 shares at a highest price of £33.8750 and a lowest price of £31.7150, reflecting the company's confidence in its stock and aiming to enhance shareholder value.
- Diverse Trading Venues: The buyback occurred across multiple trading venues, including LSE, Chi-X, and BATS, ensuring liquidity and competitive pricing, thereby optimizing the cost of the repurchase.
- Background of Buyback Program: This share repurchase is part of the program announced on February 5, 2026, indicating the company's proactive measures to protect shareholder interests amid market volatility.
- Compliance Assurance: Shell's buyback program adheres to Chapter 9 of the UK Listing Rules and Market Abuse Regulation, ensuring all transactions comply with regulatory requirements, which enhances investor trust in corporate governance.
See More
Wall Street Deciphers Trump's Brinkmanship Strategy
- Market Reaction Pattern: As investors increasingly believe that Trump's escalation tactics follow a familiar script, the so-called TACO trade (Trump Always Chickens Out) begins to shape market positioning, with traders buying on weakness in anticipation of an eventual off-ramp, demonstrating the market's adaptation to Trump's threats.
- Oil and Stock Volatility: Trump's pause on planned strikes against Iran just minutes before the deadline led to a surge in stocks, with the S&P 500 rising 3.4% after six weeks of declines, while oil prices tumbled, reflecting that the market had already anticipated this news.
- Increased Investor Confidence: As geopolitical-driven selling has become progressively muted, investor confidence in the TACO trade has grown, with the market's response to extreme threats becoming increasingly subdued, indicating a reassessment of risks based on historical experiences.
- Policy Constraint Risks: The market's diminishing reaction to Trump's aggressive rhetoric may weaken its role as a policy constraint, raising the risk of further brinkmanship, with analysts warning that this situation could lead to more dangerous outcomes.
See More
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Market Impact: This adjustment reflects Barclays' positive outlook on the stock's performance in the global markets.
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- Policy Impact Warning: The letter highlights instances of building large positions in equities and equity-linked derivatives before significant announcements, such as those related to the Iran war and Trump's tariffs, suggesting that this could create unfair market advantages and erode investor confidence.
- National Security Concerns: Warner and Schiff expressed serious concerns that the possibility of individuals connected to the Secretary of Defense trading on material nonpublic information poses significant risks not only to market integrity but also to U.S. national security.
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Shell plc Announces Share Buyback Program Details
- Share Buyback Volume: On April 17, 2026, Shell plc repurchased 856,258 shares at a highest price of £33.8750 and a lowest price of £31.7150, reflecting the company's confidence in its stock and aiming to enhance shareholder value.
- Diverse Trading Venues: The buyback occurred across multiple trading venues, including LSE, Chi-X, and BATS, ensuring liquidity and competitive pricing, thereby optimizing the cost of the repurchase.
- Background of Buyback Program: This share repurchase is part of the program announced on February 5, 2026, indicating the company's proactive measures to protect shareholder interests amid market volatility.
- Compliance Assurance: Shell's buyback program adheres to Chapter 9 of the UK Listing Rules and Market Abuse Regulation, ensuring all transactions comply with regulatory requirements, which enhances investor trust in corporate governance.
See More
Wall Street Deciphers Trump's Brinkmanship Strategy
- Market Reaction Pattern: As investors increasingly believe that Trump's escalation tactics follow a familiar script, the so-called TACO trade (Trump Always Chickens Out) begins to shape market positioning, with traders buying on weakness in anticipation of an eventual off-ramp, demonstrating the market's adaptation to Trump's threats.
- Oil and Stock Volatility: Trump's pause on planned strikes against Iran just minutes before the deadline led to a surge in stocks, with the S&P 500 rising 3.4% after six weeks of declines, while oil prices tumbled, reflecting that the market had already anticipated this news.
- Increased Investor Confidence: As geopolitical-driven selling has become progressively muted, investor confidence in the TACO trade has grown, with the market's response to extreme threats becoming increasingly subdued, indicating a reassessment of risks based on historical experiences.
- Policy Constraint Risks: The market's diminishing reaction to Trump's aggressive rhetoric may weaken its role as a policy constraint, raising the risk of further brinkmanship, with analysts warning that this situation could lead to more dangerous outcomes.
See More
CBOE GLOBAL MARKETS INC: BARCLAYS INCREASES TARGET PRICE FROM $317 TO $351
Barclays Raises Price Target: Barclays has increased its price target for a specific stock from $317 to $351.
Market Impact: This adjustment reflects Barclays' positive outlook on the stock's performance in the global markets.
See More
House Democrats Pressure CFTC to Strengthen Prediction Market Oversight
- Regulatory Pressure: House Democrats sent a letter to CFTC Chair Michael Selig questioning the agency's lack of action against offshore prediction markets related to war and government actions, highlighting growing concerns over insider trading.
- Insider Trading Concerns: Recent allegations of insider trading linked to U.S. government actions, particularly regarding Venezuela and Iran, have prompted lawmakers to demand stricter measures from the CFTC to ensure market fairness and transparency.
- Frequent Legislative Actions: Democrats have introduced several bills aimed at restricting trading on certain event contracts, especially those involving sports, government actions, and war, reflecting heightened vigilance regarding the potential risks of prediction markets.
- Policy Ban Implementation: Rep. Seth Moulton announced a ban on his office staff using prediction markets, further underscoring lawmakers' regulatory needs and emphasizing a zero-tolerance stance on insider trading.
See More
Polymarket Closes Prediction Market Amid Political Pressure
- Political Pressure Impact: Polymarket has shut down its prediction market related to the rescue of U.S. servicemembers following strong opposition from Rep. Seth Moulton, indicating increasing scrutiny on prediction markets that may affect their operational model in the future.
- Integrity Issues: Moulton labeled the betting page as 'DISGUSTING', highlighting the ethical concerns of betting on military rescues, while Polymarket stated it would investigate the incident, emphasizing that it failed to meet internal integrity standards, which could lead to a decline in user trust.
- Rising Legislative Calls: A growing number of lawmakers are advocating for stricter oversight of prediction markets, with Democrats introducing legislation to prohibit wagers on elections, wars, and government actions, potentially limiting market expansion and innovation.
- National Security Risks: Six Democratic senators urged the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to clarify the prohibition of contracts related to individual deaths, citing these contracts as posing dangerous national security risks, which may lead to a more stringent regulatory environment for prediction markets.
See More
Senators Demand Investigation into Insider Trading
- Insider Trading Inquiry: Senators Mark Warner and Adam Schiff sent a letter to the SEC and the Department of Defense IG demanding an investigation into insider trading ahead of major policy announcements, indicating potential misuse of nonpublic information by government officials, which undermines market integrity.
- Policy Impact Warning: The letter highlights instances of building large positions in equities and equity-linked derivatives before significant announcements, such as those related to the Iran war and Trump's tariffs, suggesting that this could create unfair market advantages and erode investor confidence.
- National Security Concerns: Warner and Schiff expressed serious concerns that the possibility of individuals connected to the Secretary of Defense trading on material nonpublic information poses significant risks not only to market integrity but also to U.S. national security.
- Call for Regulatory Measures: The senators urged the SEC and the Defense IG to respond to a series of questions regarding their review of trading activities, the tools used to detect suspicious trading, and the safeguards in place to prevent unauthorized dissemination of nonpublic information.
See More
