Validea's Top Consumer Discretionary Stocks Based On Joel Greenblatt - 6/3/2025
Top Rated Consumer Discretionary Stocks: The article highlights top-rated consumer discretionary stocks based on Joel Greenblatt's Earnings Yield Investor model, featuring companies like Crocs Inc., Garrett Motion Inc., Laureate Education Inc., and H&R Block Inc., all scoring above 90% for their strong fundamentals and valuations.
Validea's Investment Research: Validea provides investment research following the strategies of renowned investors, including Greenblatt, offering stock analysis and model portfolios aimed at outperforming the market over time.
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Investor Concerns: Investors in companies viewed as vulnerable to artificial intelligence disruption have experienced significant portfolio declines.
Market Impact: Some portfolios have dropped by as much as 20% this year due to these perceptions.
- Volume Analysis: Morgan Stanley's options trading volume reached 36,058 contracts today, equivalent to approximately 3.6 million shares, representing 40.9% of its average daily trading volume of 8.8 million shares over the past month.
- High-Frequency Options: Notably, the $160 strike put option expiring on February 20, 2026, saw a trading volume of 10,547 contracts today, representing about 1.1 million shares, indicating market interest in this price range.
- Intuit Inc Dynamics: Concurrently, Intuit Inc's options trading volume stood at 16,855 contracts, approximately 1.7 million shares, accounting for 40.5% of its average daily trading volume of 4.2 million shares over the past month.
- Market Trends: The $490 strike put option also attracted attention with a trading volume of 5,307 contracts today, representing around 530,700 shares, reflecting investors' expectations for future market volatility.
- Potential Refunds: The U.S. Supreme Court is set to rule on February 20 regarding Trump's tariff regime, with a ruling in favor potentially triggering refunds exceeding $130 billion, significantly reshaping American trade policy.
- Increased Household Tax Burden: U.S. households are projected to face an average tax increase of $1,000 in 2025, rising to $1,300 in 2026, highlighting the direct economic impact of tariffs on ordinary citizens.
- Tariff Revenue Figures: According to CBP data, the U.S. collected over $200 billion in tariffs between January 20 and December 15, 2025, with total customs revenue for 2025 estimated at $264 billion, yielding a net gain of approximately $132 billion after accounting for economic drag.
- Market Reaction: Following Trump's April 2025
- Legal Challenge Outlook Dim: Supreme Court Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson indicated on CBS that any legal challenge to Trump's recent tariffs would encounter “nuanced legal issues,” suggesting that hopes for refunds are increasingly unlikely due to the complexity involved.
- Market Reaction Swift: On Polymarket, the odds of Trump being forced to refund tariffs plummeted from 39% last week to 28%, reflecting a significant drop in investor confidence regarding the success of any legal challenge and highlighting market uncertainty about future policies.
- Corporate Earnings Outlook Dims: Best Buy (NYSE:BBY) has cut its 2026 guidance, explicitly citing tariff costs as a major factor, and the diminishing possibility of refunds will directly impact its bottom line for the first half of the year, increasing financial pressure on the company.
- GM Faces Rising Costs: General Motors (NYSE:GM), while a domestic company, imports significant components from Mexico, and the continued imposition of tariffs keeps input costs elevated through Q2, adversely affecting the company's overall profitability.
- Put Option Appeal: Selling a put option at a $57.00 strike price allows investors to collect a 50-cent premium, lowering their cost basis to $56.50, which represents a 16% discount compared to the current stock price of $67.49, making it attractive for those interested in BBY shares.
- Yield Potential Analysis: If the put option expires worthless, the premium would yield a 0.88% return on cash commitment, or an annualized 6.41%, referred to as YieldBoost, highlighting the potential profitability of options trading.
- Call Option Returns: Selling a call option at a $68.00 strike price allows investors to collect a $2.51 premium on the current stock price of $67.49, resulting in a total return of 4.47% if the stock is called away, though it risks missing out on further upside potential.
- Volatility Comparison: The implied volatility for the put option is 62%, while for the call option it is 48%, with an actual trailing twelve-month volatility of 45%, providing critical metrics for investors to assess risk and return, aiding in more informed investment decisions.
- New Additions: JPMorgan's February favorites list includes First Industrial Realty Trust, a Chicago-based industrial real estate owner, whose shares have risen nearly 8% over the past year but remain below the 2021 all-time high, indicating relative value and growth potential.
- Improving Fundamentals: Analyst Ken Goldman highlighted that industrial fundamentals are improving, and First Industrial Realty Trust is well-positioned to leverage its substantial development pipeline, thus providing a solid investment opportunity for stakeholders.
- Stocks Retained: JPMorgan maintains its bullish stance on Boeing and Microsoft, despite a sell-off in Microsoft shares due to slight misses in cloud service growth; the bank reiterates its overweight rating, emphasizing the importance of the Azure revenue base.
- Stocks Removed: The bank has removed Best Buy, Burlington Stores, and Regency Centers from its February list, downgrading Best Buy and Regency to neutral while keeping Burlington at overweight, reflecting a cautious outlook on these retailers.










