U.S. Core Inflation Drops to 2.6%, Market Sentiment Improves
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 18 2026
0mins
Should l Buy BP?
Source: seekingalpha
- Inflation Impact: The U.S. core inflation rate dropped to 2.6%, easing fears of delayed Federal Reserve rate hikes and boosting investor confidence, although the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell by 0.1% and 0.4%, respectively.
- Geopolitical Risks: President Trump threatened to impose tariffs of up to 25% on eight European countries, including the U.K., France, and Germany, which could heighten market uncertainty and affect transatlantic trade relations.
- Corporate Developments: Diageo is considering options for its Chinese assets, while BP expects to book $4B-$5B in impairments for Q4, primarily related to its low-carbon energy businesses, reflecting challenges in the sector.
- Asia-Pacific Market Performance: China recorded a $1.19 trillion trade surplus in 2025 with a 5.5% increase in exports despite U.S. tariff pressures, indicating economic resilience, while Japan's Nikkei 225 surged 4.8%, showcasing regional market activity.
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Analyst Views on BP
Wall Street analysts forecast BP stock price to rise
11 Analyst Rating
5 Buy
5 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 37.190
Low
6.38
Averages
84.26
High
503.69
Current: 37.190
Low
6.38
Averages
84.26
High
503.69
About BP
BP p.l.c. is a United Kingdom-based integrated energy company. The Company's segments include Gas & low carbon energy, Oil production & operations, Customers & products, and Other businesses & corporate. Its gas business includes regions with upstream activities that produce natural gas, integrated gas and power, and gas trading. Its low carbon business includes solar, offshore and onshore wind, hydrogen and carbon capture and storage and power trading. Oil production & operations segment comprises regions with upstream activities that predominantly produce crude oil, including bpx energy. Customers & products segment comprises its customer-focused businesses, which include convenience and retail fuels, electric vehicle charging, as well as Castrol, aviation and business to business and midstream. It also includes its products businesses, refining and oil trading, as well as its bioenergy businesses. Other businesses & corporate segment comprises technology and bp ventures.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Technical Analysis Tool: Comparing the latest stock price to the 200-day moving average provides investors with deeper insights into price trends and potential buying opportunities, enhancing their trading strategies.
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See More
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- Oil Discovery: The Eni-BP joint venture Azule Energy has discovered nearly 500 million barrels of crude oil at the Algaita-01 exploration well off the coast of Angola, significantly enhancing the company's resource base and competitive position in the market.
- Successful Track Record: This discovery marks the 22nd successful find in Block 15/06, showcasing the exceptional effectiveness of the petroleum system in the region, which boosts investor confidence in the joint venture's future development prospects.
- Drilling Details: Drilling operations commenced on January 10 at a water depth of 667 meters, approximately 18 kilometers from the Olombendo floating production, storage, and offloading vessel, and were successfully concluded on January 26, demonstrating the project's technical capabilities and execution efficiency.
- Strategic Reaffirmation: The CEO of Azule Energy noted that this discovery reaffirms the high potential of the Lower Congo Basin, indicating that the ongoing exploration strategy will continue to drive oil and gas development in the region, potentially yielding long-term economic benefits.
See More
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- New License Issued: The U.S. Treasury has issued a general license allowing international oil companies, including Chevron, to negotiate and sign contracts for oil and gas extraction in Venezuela, paving the way for global oil firms to re-enter the country.
- Tax Requirements: Under the new license, participating companies must pay oil and gas royalties or taxes to Venezuela or its state-run energy company, with these funds deposited into a U.S. Treasury account for foreign governments, ensuring transparency in fund allocation.
- Legal Adjustment Context: The license announcement aligns with adjustments made by Venezuela's interim government to its hydrocarbon law aimed at easing state control over the oil industry, although major U.S. firms remain cautious about investing.
- Market Reaction: Following this news, stocks of major oil companies like Chevron, BP, and Shell rose between 0.5% and 1.7%, indicating a positive market response to the new investment opportunities.
See More
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- Price Range Analysis: DFIV's 52-week low is $34.28 and high is $55.9666, with the latest trade at $55.64, indicating the stock is trading near its high, which may influence investor buying decisions.
- Technical Analysis Tool: Comparing the latest stock price to the 200-day moving average provides investors with deeper insights into price trends and potential buying opportunities, enhancing their trading strategies.
- ETF Trading Mechanism: Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) trade like stocks, where investors buy and sell 'units' that can be created or destroyed based on demand, impacting liquidity and market performance.
- Inflows and Outflows Monitoring: Weekly monitoring of changes in outstanding shares for ETFs highlights significant inflows (new units created) or outflows (old units destroyed), directly affecting the buying and selling strategies of the underlying assets held within the ETFs.
See More
Significant Rotation Trends in the 2026 Stock Market
- Ford's Positive Outlook: Ford expects its tariff burden to decrease to $1 billion in 2026 from $2 billion in 2025, with a sustainable dividend yield of 4.4% and a payout ratio of 52%, which should continue to attract investor interest.
- Suncor's Strong Performance: Suncor slightly beat EPS and revenue expectations in its Q4 2025 report, prompting RBC Capital to raise its price target from $69 to $75, indicating over 35% potential upside, although short-term pullback risks remain.
- Macy's Positive Technical Signals: Following a surprising earnings beat in Q3 2025, Macy's stock has shown signs of upward momentum despite dipping below the 50-day SMA, with both RSI and MACD indicating a potential resumption of the uptrend.
- BP's Technical Support: Despite a more than 5% drop following stock buyback news, BP's shares have stabilized around the 50-day SMA, with RSI and MACD indicators suggesting technical support, positioning the stock to potentially overcome the negative impact of mixed earnings results.
See More
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- Currency Change Announcement: Compass has announced that starting April 1, 2024, it will change its share trading currency from GBP to USD, aiming to reduce foreign exchange volatility and simplify the investment case for global investors, which is expected to enhance its appeal in international markets.
- Revenue Source Insight: With approximately 75% of Compass's revenue denominated in dollars, this currency shift will align its financial reporting with market performance, thereby boosting investor confidence and potentially attracting more international investments.
- Market Reaction: Despite Compass's commitment to continue paying dividends in GBP, concerns about its potential migration to the New York Stock Exchange have intensified, reflecting a decline in investor confidence in the UK market, which could impact its stock price performance.
- Industry Trend: This decision by Compass mirrors actions taken by other large multinationals like InterContinental Hotels Group, indicating a growing trend among UK companies to adopt USD as their trading currency to better align with global competitors.
See More
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- Market Weakness: On Tuesday afternoon, energy stocks broadly declined, with the NYSE Energy Sector Index falling by 0.5%, indicating market concerns over energy demand prospects, which could undermine investor confidence and lead to capital outflows.
- Sector Impact: The drop in energy stocks may negatively affect the share prices of related companies, particularly amid increasing uncertainty regarding global economic recovery, prompting investors to reassess their portfolios.
- Investor Sentiment: As energy prices become more volatile, market expectations for future energy demand are becoming more cautious, potentially leading to short-term capital shifts towards more stable sectors, thereby affecting the financing capabilities of energy companies.
- Strategic Reevaluation: Given the poor performance of energy stocks, related companies may need to reassess their strategic direction to adapt to market changes and maintain competitiveness, especially in the context of growing emphasis on renewable energy.
See More
