UNH vs. HUM: Which Insurance Stock Offers Greater Potential Following CMS's Reversal of Wall Street's Major Medicare Rate Concern?
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Apr 07 2026
0mins
Source: stocktwits
Medicare Advantage Funding Increase: A revised policy is set to add over $13 billion in funding to Medicare Advantage plans, following a previous proposal that significantly impacted insurers' market value.
Stock Performance: Shares of UnitedHealth (UNH) rose by 8% and Humana (HUM) gained 11% after the announcement, although both stocks have seen declines of approximately 45% and 27% respectively over the past year.
Payment Rate Adjustments: The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) finalized a 2.48% increase in Medicare Advantage payment rates for 2027, reversing earlier proposals that kept rates flat.
Market Sentiment: Retail sentiment for UNH and HUM remains bullish, with analysts providing a range of ratings, indicating a strong outlook for UnitedHealth's expanding AI strategy and potential revenue relief amidst rising medical costs.
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Analyst Views on UNH
Wall Street analysts forecast UNH stock price to fall
19 Analyst Rating
16 Buy
3 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 425.360
Low
330.00
Averages
397.82
High
444.00
Current: 425.360
Low
330.00
Averages
397.82
High
444.00
About UNH
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated is a healthcare and well-being company. Its segments include Optum Health, Optum Insight, Optum Rx, and UnitedHealthcare, which includes UnitedHealthcare Employer & Individual, UnitedHealthcare Medicare & Retirement and UnitedHealthcare Community & State. Optum Health provides comprehensive and patient-centered care, addressing the physical, mental, and social well-being. Optum Health delivers primary, specialty and surgical care and helps patients and providers navigate and address complex, chronic and behavioral health needs. Optum Insight connects the healthcare system with services, analytics and platforms that make clinical, administrative and financial processes simpler and more efficient for all participants in the healthcare system. Optum Rx offers a range of pharmacy care services through retail pharmacies, through home delivery, specialty and community health pharmacies and the provision of in-home and community-based infusion services.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Long-Term Investment Strategy in Healthcare Sector
- Strong Financial Performance: Johnson & Johnson reported Q1 revenue of $24.1 billion, a 9.9% increase year-over-year, with adjusted EPS of $2.70 exceeding analyst expectations, and it forecasts annual sales between $99.7 billion and $100.7 billion, indicating robust growth potential in innovative medicine and medtech.
- Diversification Advantage: Abbott Laboratories achieved Q1 sales of $11.2 billion, up 7.8% year-over-year, with strong performance in medical devices and diagnostics offsetting declines in nutrition, and it expects full-year revenue growth of 6.5% to 7.5%, solidifying its position in global healthcare demand.
- Market Dominance: UnitedHealth Group's Q1 revenue reached $111.7 billion, a 2% increase year-over-year, with its Optum division leveraging data analytics and pharmacy care for vertical integration, projecting full-year EPS exceeding $17.35, up at least 31%, reinforcing its leadership in the U.S. private health insurance market.
- Stable Dividend Returns: Johnson & Johnson, Abbott, and UnitedHealth Group are all Dividend Kings, having increased dividends for 64, 54, and 17 consecutive years respectively, showcasing their strong cash flow management and appeal to long-term investors, particularly in times of economic uncertainty, providing low volatility and high margin of safety.
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Three Stock Analyses: Potential and Challenges
- Kontoor Brands Weak Performance: Despite a 17.6% rise in the past month, Kontoor Brands (KTB) has shown disappointing constant currency revenue growth, indicating soft demand, with a five-year annual EPS growth of only 7.6%, below peer averages, and declining returns on capital suggest management's investments are destroying value.
- Caution on Columbia Banking System: Columbia Banking System (COLB) has increased by 6.7% over the past month, but its 9.6% annual revenue growth lags behind banking peers, with a 2.1% annual decline in EPS over the last five years indicating profitability issues, and a 1.3% decline in tangible book value per share reflects challenges in capital management.
- Growth Potential of UnitedHealth: UnitedHealth (UNH) has risen 4.5% in the last month, with an annual revenue growth of 11.3% surpassing most peers, demonstrating customer value recognition, and its $449.7 billion revenue scale allows for cost spreading across a larger member base, showcasing management's profitability.
- Market Trend Observation: While market attention on these stocks is increasing, investors should exercise caution, particularly regarding the potential risks associated with KTB and COLB, and thorough research is recommended to assess their long-term investment value.
See More
CVS and UnitedHealth Revenue Dynamics
- CVS Revenue Growth: CVS Health reported $100.4 billion in revenue for Q1 2026, marking a 6% year-over-year increase, with retail pharmacies contributing $32 billion, indicating strong performance in the retail market and expected future growth.
- UnitedHealth's Steady Performance: UnitedHealth generated $111.7 billion in revenue for Q1 2026, reflecting a 2% year-over-year increase; while its growth rate lags behind CVS, its focus on core operations is expected to enhance long-term profitability.
- Business Restructuring Impact: CVS received court approval to sell its Omnicare business to GenieRx, which will optimize its business structure and strengthen its competitive position in pharmacy management and health insurance, likely yielding positive revenue impacts in the future.
- Optimistic Market Outlook: Both companies raised their full-year revenue guidance, reflecting confidence in future market demand, and the strategic adjustments by CVS and UnitedHealth present promising investment opportunities amid ongoing growth in the healthcare sector.
See More
Financial Comparison of UnitedHealth and CVS Health
- Revenue Growth Trends: UnitedHealth reported $111.7 billion in revenue for Q1 2026, reflecting a 2% year-over-year increase, while CVS Health achieved $100.4 billion with a 6% annual growth, highlighting CVS's strong performance in retail pharmacy sales.
- Profit Margin Comparison: CVS Health's net income margin for Q1 2026 was approximately 3%, whereas UnitedHealth reached about 6%, indicating superior cost control and profitability for UnitedHealth.
- Market Strategy Adjustments: UnitedHealth is gradually exiting non-U.S. markets to focus on core operations, a strategic shift that may impact its future revenue growth potential, while CVS continues to rely on retail sales through its 9,000 pharmacy locations.
- Investor Considerations: Despite both companies raising their full-year guidance, analysts noted that CVS Health did not make the list of top investment stocks, prompting investors to carefully assess its future performance.
See More
Congress Members' Stock Trades Draw Investor Attention
- Congressional Trading Trends: Despite Johnson & Johnson's stock rising about 23% this year, Congress members have sold more shares than they bought over the past six months, indicating a cautious stance, with three members investing between $15,000 and $30,000, reflecting differing views on the healthcare sector.
- Healthcare Stock Popularity: UnitedHealth Group's shares have surged over 29%, making it a favored choice among Congress members, with Republican Senator Markwayne Mullin purchasing between $50,001 and $100,000 on February 25, demonstrating strong confidence in the company.
- Investor Caution Advised: While copying congressional trades is a popular trend, the 45-day disclosure period means retail investors often act on stale data, potentially harming their returns as the market has already adjusted to the news by the time they learn of the trades.
- Research First: Investors should view congressional disclosures as a starting point for fundamental research rather than direct buy signals, as both Johnson & Johnson and UnitedHealth Group offer over 2% dividend yields, but investment decisions should be based on current valuations and personal risk tolerance rather than political disclosures.
See More
Congress Members Actively Buy Healthcare Stocks
- Congressional Trading Trends: Rep. Lisa McClain from Michigan and two other lawmakers increased their holdings in Johnson & Johnson in 2023, with McClain purchasing up to $30,000, indicating confidence in the company's future despite other members selling off shares in the past six months.
- Strong Performance of Healthcare Stocks: Johnson & Johnson and UnitedHealth Group have seen their stocks rise approximately 23% and 29% year-to-date, respectively, highlighting their appeal to investors, particularly among congressional members, due to stable earnings growth and high dividend yields.
- Investor Focus on Insider Trading: The stock trades of Congress members are closely monitored by investors because of their roles in shaping policies that affect the healthcare sector; however, explicit insider trading is illegal under the Stock Act, yet these trades can still influence market sentiment.
- Investment Decision Recommendations: While congressional trades may signal confidence, investors should conduct independent research based on current valuations and financial health of the companies rather than relying solely on political disclosures, to avoid potential losses from market volatility.
See More
Long-Term Investment Strategy in Healthcare Sector
- Strong Financial Performance: Johnson & Johnson reported Q1 revenue of $24.1 billion, a 9.9% increase year-over-year, with adjusted EPS of $2.70 exceeding analyst expectations, and it forecasts annual sales between $99.7 billion and $100.7 billion, indicating robust growth potential in innovative medicine and medtech.
- Diversification Advantage: Abbott Laboratories achieved Q1 sales of $11.2 billion, up 7.8% year-over-year, with strong performance in medical devices and diagnostics offsetting declines in nutrition, and it expects full-year revenue growth of 6.5% to 7.5%, solidifying its position in global healthcare demand.
- Market Dominance: UnitedHealth Group's Q1 revenue reached $111.7 billion, a 2% increase year-over-year, with its Optum division leveraging data analytics and pharmacy care for vertical integration, projecting full-year EPS exceeding $17.35, up at least 31%, reinforcing its leadership in the U.S. private health insurance market.
- Stable Dividend Returns: Johnson & Johnson, Abbott, and UnitedHealth Group are all Dividend Kings, having increased dividends for 64, 54, and 17 consecutive years respectively, showcasing their strong cash flow management and appeal to long-term investors, particularly in times of economic uncertainty, providing low volatility and high margin of safety.
See More
Three Stock Analyses: Potential and Challenges
- Kontoor Brands Weak Performance: Despite a 17.6% rise in the past month, Kontoor Brands (KTB) has shown disappointing constant currency revenue growth, indicating soft demand, with a five-year annual EPS growth of only 7.6%, below peer averages, and declining returns on capital suggest management's investments are destroying value.
- Caution on Columbia Banking System: Columbia Banking System (COLB) has increased by 6.7% over the past month, but its 9.6% annual revenue growth lags behind banking peers, with a 2.1% annual decline in EPS over the last five years indicating profitability issues, and a 1.3% decline in tangible book value per share reflects challenges in capital management.
- Growth Potential of UnitedHealth: UnitedHealth (UNH) has risen 4.5% in the last month, with an annual revenue growth of 11.3% surpassing most peers, demonstrating customer value recognition, and its $449.7 billion revenue scale allows for cost spreading across a larger member base, showcasing management's profitability.
- Market Trend Observation: While market attention on these stocks is increasing, investors should exercise caution, particularly regarding the potential risks associated with KTB and COLB, and thorough research is recommended to assess their long-term investment value.
See More
CVS and UnitedHealth Revenue Dynamics
- CVS Revenue Growth: CVS Health reported $100.4 billion in revenue for Q1 2026, marking a 6% year-over-year increase, with retail pharmacies contributing $32 billion, indicating strong performance in the retail market and expected future growth.
- UnitedHealth's Steady Performance: UnitedHealth generated $111.7 billion in revenue for Q1 2026, reflecting a 2% year-over-year increase; while its growth rate lags behind CVS, its focus on core operations is expected to enhance long-term profitability.
- Business Restructuring Impact: CVS received court approval to sell its Omnicare business to GenieRx, which will optimize its business structure and strengthen its competitive position in pharmacy management and health insurance, likely yielding positive revenue impacts in the future.
- Optimistic Market Outlook: Both companies raised their full-year revenue guidance, reflecting confidence in future market demand, and the strategic adjustments by CVS and UnitedHealth present promising investment opportunities amid ongoing growth in the healthcare sector.
See More
Financial Comparison of UnitedHealth and CVS Health
- Revenue Growth Trends: UnitedHealth reported $111.7 billion in revenue for Q1 2026, reflecting a 2% year-over-year increase, while CVS Health achieved $100.4 billion with a 6% annual growth, highlighting CVS's strong performance in retail pharmacy sales.
- Profit Margin Comparison: CVS Health's net income margin for Q1 2026 was approximately 3%, whereas UnitedHealth reached about 6%, indicating superior cost control and profitability for UnitedHealth.
- Market Strategy Adjustments: UnitedHealth is gradually exiting non-U.S. markets to focus on core operations, a strategic shift that may impact its future revenue growth potential, while CVS continues to rely on retail sales through its 9,000 pharmacy locations.
- Investor Considerations: Despite both companies raising their full-year guidance, analysts noted that CVS Health did not make the list of top investment stocks, prompting investors to carefully assess its future performance.
See More
Congress Members' Stock Trades Draw Investor Attention
- Congressional Trading Trends: Despite Johnson & Johnson's stock rising about 23% this year, Congress members have sold more shares than they bought over the past six months, indicating a cautious stance, with three members investing between $15,000 and $30,000, reflecting differing views on the healthcare sector.
- Healthcare Stock Popularity: UnitedHealth Group's shares have surged over 29%, making it a favored choice among Congress members, with Republican Senator Markwayne Mullin purchasing between $50,001 and $100,000 on February 25, demonstrating strong confidence in the company.
- Investor Caution Advised: While copying congressional trades is a popular trend, the 45-day disclosure period means retail investors often act on stale data, potentially harming their returns as the market has already adjusted to the news by the time they learn of the trades.
- Research First: Investors should view congressional disclosures as a starting point for fundamental research rather than direct buy signals, as both Johnson & Johnson and UnitedHealth Group offer over 2% dividend yields, but investment decisions should be based on current valuations and personal risk tolerance rather than political disclosures.
See More
Congress Members Actively Buy Healthcare Stocks
- Congressional Trading Trends: Rep. Lisa McClain from Michigan and two other lawmakers increased their holdings in Johnson & Johnson in 2023, with McClain purchasing up to $30,000, indicating confidence in the company's future despite other members selling off shares in the past six months.
- Strong Performance of Healthcare Stocks: Johnson & Johnson and UnitedHealth Group have seen their stocks rise approximately 23% and 29% year-to-date, respectively, highlighting their appeal to investors, particularly among congressional members, due to stable earnings growth and high dividend yields.
- Investor Focus on Insider Trading: The stock trades of Congress members are closely monitored by investors because of their roles in shaping policies that affect the healthcare sector; however, explicit insider trading is illegal under the Stock Act, yet these trades can still influence market sentiment.
- Investment Decision Recommendations: While congressional trades may signal confidence, investors should conduct independent research based on current valuations and financial health of the companies rather than relying solely on political disclosures, to avoid potential losses from market volatility.
See More
