Casella Waste price target raised to $135 from $130 at UBS
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Apr 11 2025
0mins
Should l Buy CWST?
Analyst Rating Update: UBS analyst Jon Windham has increased the price target for Casella Waste from $130 to $135 while maintaining a Buy rating on the shares.
Market Insights: The Municipal Solid Waste sector is viewed as attractive due to its earnings resilience and defensive business models amid market uncertainty.
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Analyst Views on CWST
Wall Street analysts forecast CWST stock price to rise
4 Analyst Rating
3 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 89.170
Low
111.00
Averages
114.33
High
120.00
Current: 89.170
Low
111.00
Averages
114.33
High
120.00
About CWST
Casella Waste Systems, Inc. is a regional, vertically integrated solid waste services company. The Company provides resource management and services to residential, commercial, municipal, institutional, and industrial customers, primarily in the areas of solid waste collection and disposal, transfer, recycling, and organics services. It also holds collection operations across eastern Pennsylvania and western New Jersey. It manages its solid waste operations on a geographic basis through three regional operating segments: the Eastern, Western and Mid-Atlantic regions, each of which provides a comprehensive range of non-hazardous solid waste services. It manages its resource renewal operations through the Resource Solutions operating segment, which leverages its core competencies in materials processing, industrial recycling, organics and resource management service offerings to deliver comprehensive solutions for its commercial, municipal, institutional and industrial customers.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
UBS Lowers Target Price for Casella Waste Systems Inc. to $130 from $140
- Target Price Adjustment: Case Lella's target price has been reduced from $140 to $130.
- Market Impact: This adjustment reflects changes in the waste systems sector, particularly in the context of Cub's subcuts.
See More
Casella Waste Systems Outlines Four Value Drivers and M&A Pipeline
- Strategic Drivers: CEO Ned Coletta emphasized that Casella Waste Systems is driving business growth through four primary value drivers: pricing discipline, operational self-help, technology modernization, and acquisition-led growth, with a pricing target of 5% for 2026.
- Acquisition Expansion: The company has completed nearly 80 acquisitions over the past six years and plans to continue adding businesses in existing markets to generate synergies and enhance competitive positioning.
- Technology Modernization: Casella is undergoing technology modernization, expecting to achieve $15 million to $20 million in G&A savings, which will enhance operational efficiency and reduce costs, thereby improving revenue as a percentage of total income.
- Landfill Expansion: The company plans to close several landfills over the next five years while expanding operations in New York and New Hampshire, which is expected to significantly increase market capacity and meet long-term customer needs.
See More
4D Advisors Initiates Position in Casella Waste Systems
- New Position: 4D Advisors disclosed a new position in Casella Waste Systems on February 17, 2026, acquiring 95,000 shares valued at $9.30 million, indicating confidence in the company's potential.
- Asset Allocation: This position represents 5.1% of 4D Advisors' assets under management, ranking second in their 13F report, highlighting its significance within a diversified investment portfolio.
- Financial Performance: Casella Waste Systems reported an 18% revenue increase for 2025, totaling $1.8 billion, and despite GAAP net income compression due to higher depreciation, adjusted EBITDA rose 17% to $422.8 million, showcasing stable cash flow and profitability.
- Market Outlook: Although Casella's stock price has declined by 18% over the past year, management projects adjusted EBITDA for 2026 to be between $455 million and $465 million, indicating potential for moderate growth in a sector characterized by high regulatory barriers and limited competition.
See More
4D Advisors Increases Stake in Casella Waste Systems
- Increased Holdings: 4D Advisors acquired 95,000 shares of Casella Waste Systems in Q4 2026, with a position value of $9.3 million, reflecting confidence in the company and the waste management sector.
- Financial Performance: Casella Waste Systems reported an 18% revenue increase in 2025, reaching $1.8 billion, while adjusted EBITDA grew by 17% to $422.8 million, indicating strong performance amid stable demand and regulatory barriers.
- Future Outlook: Management projects adjusted EBITDA for 2026 to be between $455 million and $465 million, suggesting continued mid-teens cash flow growth, further solidifying its competitive edge in a highly regulated industry.
- Portfolio Diversification: With a 5% allocation to waste management within a portfolio that includes tobacco, data analytics, and public safety technology, the investment adds durability, even though Casella Waste Systems is not currently among the top investment picks.
See More
Casella Waste Systems Reports Strong Q4 2025 Earnings Growth
- Consistent Growth: Casella Waste Systems achieved its fifth consecutive year of double-digit growth in 2025, with revenues up 18%, adjusted EBITDA rising 17%, and adjusted free cash flow increasing 14%, reflecting the company's sustained operational and strategic success.
- Acquisition Expansion: The company completed nine acquisitions in 2025, contributing over $115 million in annualized revenues, with the Mountain State Waste acquisition expected to add $30 million in annualized revenues in 2026, further strengthening its market position.
- Operational Efficiency Gains: The introduction of new automated trucks and significant progress on system integration in the Mid-Atlantic region are expected to enhance operational efficiency, with expansions at Hakes and Hyland landfills projected to increase Hyland's annual permit from 460,000 tons to 1,000,000 tons, adding nearly 60 years of capacity.
- Outlook Guidance: Management anticipates 2026 revenues between $1.97 billion and $1.99 billion, with adjusted EBITDA projected between $455 million and $465 million, demonstrating confidence in future growth despite challenges from facility closures.
See More
Casella Waste Systems Q4 Earnings Beat Expectations
- Earnings Beat: Casella Waste Systems reported a Q4 non-GAAP EPS of $0.30, exceeding expectations by $0.08, indicating a sustained improvement in profitability that boosts investor confidence.
- Revenue Growth Slows: Revenue increased by 9.7% year-over-year to $469.1 million, yet fell short of expectations by $1.79 million, reflecting pressures from intensified market competition and rising costs that could impact future profitability.
- Industry Conference Presentation: The company showcased its performance at the Goldman Sachs Industrials and Materials Conference, emphasizing its strong position in waste management to attract investor interest in its long-term growth potential.
- Valuation Concerns: Despite solid performance, concerns over the company's valuation have intensified, with analysts noting that the current stock price may reflect overly optimistic growth expectations, necessitating a cautious assessment of investment risks.
See More
UBS Lowers Target Price for Casella Waste Systems Inc. to $130 from $140
- Target Price Adjustment: Case Lella's target price has been reduced from $140 to $130.
- Market Impact: This adjustment reflects changes in the waste systems sector, particularly in the context of Cub's subcuts.
See More
Casella Waste Systems Outlines Four Value Drivers and M&A Pipeline
- Strategic Drivers: CEO Ned Coletta emphasized that Casella Waste Systems is driving business growth through four primary value drivers: pricing discipline, operational self-help, technology modernization, and acquisition-led growth, with a pricing target of 5% for 2026.
- Acquisition Expansion: The company has completed nearly 80 acquisitions over the past six years and plans to continue adding businesses in existing markets to generate synergies and enhance competitive positioning.
- Technology Modernization: Casella is undergoing technology modernization, expecting to achieve $15 million to $20 million in G&A savings, which will enhance operational efficiency and reduce costs, thereby improving revenue as a percentage of total income.
- Landfill Expansion: The company plans to close several landfills over the next five years while expanding operations in New York and New Hampshire, which is expected to significantly increase market capacity and meet long-term customer needs.
See More
4D Advisors Initiates Position in Casella Waste Systems
- New Position: 4D Advisors disclosed a new position in Casella Waste Systems on February 17, 2026, acquiring 95,000 shares valued at $9.30 million, indicating confidence in the company's potential.
- Asset Allocation: This position represents 5.1% of 4D Advisors' assets under management, ranking second in their 13F report, highlighting its significance within a diversified investment portfolio.
- Financial Performance: Casella Waste Systems reported an 18% revenue increase for 2025, totaling $1.8 billion, and despite GAAP net income compression due to higher depreciation, adjusted EBITDA rose 17% to $422.8 million, showcasing stable cash flow and profitability.
- Market Outlook: Although Casella's stock price has declined by 18% over the past year, management projects adjusted EBITDA for 2026 to be between $455 million and $465 million, indicating potential for moderate growth in a sector characterized by high regulatory barriers and limited competition.
See More
4D Advisors Increases Stake in Casella Waste Systems
- Increased Holdings: 4D Advisors acquired 95,000 shares of Casella Waste Systems in Q4 2026, with a position value of $9.3 million, reflecting confidence in the company and the waste management sector.
- Financial Performance: Casella Waste Systems reported an 18% revenue increase in 2025, reaching $1.8 billion, while adjusted EBITDA grew by 17% to $422.8 million, indicating strong performance amid stable demand and regulatory barriers.
- Future Outlook: Management projects adjusted EBITDA for 2026 to be between $455 million and $465 million, suggesting continued mid-teens cash flow growth, further solidifying its competitive edge in a highly regulated industry.
- Portfolio Diversification: With a 5% allocation to waste management within a portfolio that includes tobacco, data analytics, and public safety technology, the investment adds durability, even though Casella Waste Systems is not currently among the top investment picks.
See More
Casella Waste Systems Reports Strong Q4 2025 Earnings Growth
- Consistent Growth: Casella Waste Systems achieved its fifth consecutive year of double-digit growth in 2025, with revenues up 18%, adjusted EBITDA rising 17%, and adjusted free cash flow increasing 14%, reflecting the company's sustained operational and strategic success.
- Acquisition Expansion: The company completed nine acquisitions in 2025, contributing over $115 million in annualized revenues, with the Mountain State Waste acquisition expected to add $30 million in annualized revenues in 2026, further strengthening its market position.
- Operational Efficiency Gains: The introduction of new automated trucks and significant progress on system integration in the Mid-Atlantic region are expected to enhance operational efficiency, with expansions at Hakes and Hyland landfills projected to increase Hyland's annual permit from 460,000 tons to 1,000,000 tons, adding nearly 60 years of capacity.
- Outlook Guidance: Management anticipates 2026 revenues between $1.97 billion and $1.99 billion, with adjusted EBITDA projected between $455 million and $465 million, demonstrating confidence in future growth despite challenges from facility closures.
See More
Casella Waste Systems Q4 Earnings Beat Expectations
- Earnings Beat: Casella Waste Systems reported a Q4 non-GAAP EPS of $0.30, exceeding expectations by $0.08, indicating a sustained improvement in profitability that boosts investor confidence.
- Revenue Growth Slows: Revenue increased by 9.7% year-over-year to $469.1 million, yet fell short of expectations by $1.79 million, reflecting pressures from intensified market competition and rising costs that could impact future profitability.
- Industry Conference Presentation: The company showcased its performance at the Goldman Sachs Industrials and Materials Conference, emphasizing its strong position in waste management to attract investor interest in its long-term growth potential.
- Valuation Concerns: Despite solid performance, concerns over the company's valuation have intensified, with analysts noting that the current stock price may reflect overly optimistic growth expectations, necessitating a cautious assessment of investment risks.
See More
