Trump's Policies Trigger Inflation Crisis
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 6 days ago
0mins
Source: Fool
- Surging Inflation: The U.S. inflation rate reached 3.8% in April 2025, primarily driven by Trump's tariff policies and military actions against Iran, leading to increased living costs for consumers and potential pressure on the stock market.
- Energy Market Turmoil: Following Trump's military actions against Iran on February 28, 2026, approximately 20% of global oil demand was affected, causing U.S. gas prices to rise by $1.56 in just a few months, significantly impacting the economy.
- Federal Reserve Policy Shift: With Trump's nominee Kevin Warsh set to take over as Fed chair, market expectations for interest rate hikes have increased, with a greater than 77% chance of a rate hike by April 2027, raising borrowing costs and potentially stifling stock market growth.
- Historical Valuation Risks: The S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio has surpassed 42, making it the second most expensive stock market in history, and historical data indicates that instances of P/E ratios exceeding 30 are often followed by declines of 20% or more, prompting investors to be wary of potential market corrections.
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Analyst Views on CME
Wall Street analysts forecast CME stock price to rise
10 Analyst Rating
4 Buy
4 Hold
2 Sell
Hold
Current: 277.420
Low
209.00
Averages
285.90
High
320.00
Current: 277.420
Low
209.00
Averages
285.90
High
320.00
About CME
CME Group Inc. provides a derivatives marketplace. The Company enables clients to trade futures, options, cash and over the counter (OTC) markets, optimize portfolios, and analyze data. It exchanges offer a range of global benchmark products across all major asset classes based on interest rates, equity indexes, foreign exchange (FX), energy, agricultural products and metals. It offers futures and options on futures trading through the CME Globex platform, fixed income trading via BrokerTec and FX trading on the EBS platform. In addition, it operates central counterparty clearing provider, CME Clearing. Its products provide a means for hedging, speculation and asset allocation related to the risks associated with, among other things, interest rate sensitive instruments, and changes in the prices of agricultural, energy and metal commodities. It provides clearing and settlement services for a range of exchange-traded futures and options on futures contracts and OTC derivatives.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Oil Price Surge Impact: Trump's authorization of military strikes in Iran has led to a surge in global oil prices, with the International Energy Agency stating that the conflict has caused the largest oil supply disruption in history, affecting approximately 20 million barrels per day and pushing inflation to 3.8%, the highest level in three years.
- Fed Policy Shift Risks: Due to rising energy prices, Kevin Warsh may be forced to raise interest rates to combat inflation, and historical data shows that the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite have averaged declines of 7% and 8% respectively in the three months following the initiation of a new Fed rate hike cycle, posing significant pressure on the stock market.
- Liquidity Constraints: Warsh's plan to shrink the Fed's $6.7 trillion balance sheet could drain liquidity from the market, as banks and institutional investors would absorb excess Treasury bonds, leaving them with less cash for stocks, which could negatively impact stock prices.
- Political Interference Consequences: Trump's influence over the Fed may lead to unnecessary interest rate cuts, potentially resulting in rising inflation; doubts about the Fed's independence could destabilize the bond market, ultimately affecting stock market performance and creating a counterproductive effect to Trump's desired lower rates.
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- Rate Policy Challenges: New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh faces pressure from Trump, and while the market had anticipated rate cuts, rising oil prices and the Iran conflict make rate hikes almost inevitable, which could lead to stock market declines.
- Inflationary Pressures Intensify: The Consumer Price Index rose to 3.8% in April, the highest in three years, with forecasts suggesting acceleration to 6.5% in Q2, further impacting consumer spending and corporate earnings growth.
- Liquidity Risks: Warsh's plan to shrink the Fed's $6.7 trillion balance sheet could drain market liquidity, and if he simultaneously lowers rates, it may raise questions about the Fed's independence, potentially destabilizing both the bond and stock markets.
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- Inflationary Pressures: Oil prices have surged to multi-year highs, causing the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to accelerate to 3.8% in April, with projections suggesting it could rise to 6.7% in the second quarter, exerting persistent inflationary pressure on manufacturing and transportation costs.
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- Rising Bond Yields: Treasury yields have surged recently, with the 30-year yield hitting a 19-year high as investors expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates to combat inflation, indicating growing concerns about potential economic slowdown.
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- Inflation Pressure Intensifies: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose at an annualized rate of 3.8% in April 2024, the highest since May 2023, driven by surging oil prices due to the ongoing war in Iran, indicating increasing inflationary pressures that may force the Fed to raise interest rates again.
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See More
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- Oil Price Surge Impact: Trump's authorization of military strikes in Iran has led to a surge in global oil prices, with the International Energy Agency stating that the conflict has caused the largest oil supply disruption in history, affecting approximately 20 million barrels per day and pushing inflation to 3.8%, the highest level in three years.
- Fed Policy Shift Risks: Due to rising energy prices, Kevin Warsh may be forced to raise interest rates to combat inflation, and historical data shows that the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite have averaged declines of 7% and 8% respectively in the three months following the initiation of a new Fed rate hike cycle, posing significant pressure on the stock market.
- Liquidity Constraints: Warsh's plan to shrink the Fed's $6.7 trillion balance sheet could drain liquidity from the market, as banks and institutional investors would absorb excess Treasury bonds, leaving them with less cash for stocks, which could negatively impact stock prices.
- Political Interference Consequences: Trump's influence over the Fed may lead to unnecessary interest rate cuts, potentially resulting in rising inflation; doubts about the Fed's independence could destabilize the bond market, ultimately affecting stock market performance and creating a counterproductive effect to Trump's desired lower rates.
See More
U.S. Stock Market Faces Rate Hike Risks
- Market Performance Review: Over the past year, the S&P 500 has risen by 30% and the Nasdaq Composite by 42%, demonstrating market resilience and investor confidence despite increasing economic uncertainty.
- Rate Policy Challenges: New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh faces pressure from Trump, and while the market had anticipated rate cuts, rising oil prices and the Iran conflict make rate hikes almost inevitable, which could lead to stock market declines.
- Inflationary Pressures Intensify: The Consumer Price Index rose to 3.8% in April, the highest in three years, with forecasts suggesting acceleration to 6.5% in Q2, further impacting consumer spending and corporate earnings growth.
- Liquidity Risks: Warsh's plan to shrink the Fed's $6.7 trillion balance sheet could drain market liquidity, and if he simultaneously lowers rates, it may raise questions about the Fed's independence, potentially destabilizing both the bond and stock markets.
See More
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- Futures Market Design: China is designing a futures market for AI tokens, with the Shanghai Futures Exchange in preliminary stages aimed at providing new financial instruments for pricing AI services, thereby enhancing domestic companies' ability to hedge against computing costs.
- Competitive Market Context: This initiative contrasts with the U.S. CME Group and Intercontinental Exchange's launch of GPU compute futures, highlighting China's strategic intent in the AI sector, which could influence global AI supply chain dynamics.
- Surge in Token Usage: Since the beginning of 2024, China's daily token usage has skyrocketed to over 140 trillion, reflecting a 1,000-fold increase, indicating strong market demand for computing power and driving the development of futures products.
- Potential for New Asset Class: BlackRock's CEO noted that the surging demand for tokens could spawn an entirely new asset class, further enhancing China's financial position in the competitive landscape of AI and semiconductor technology.
See More
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- Bond Market Alarm: Treasury yields have surged in recent months as investors anticipate the Federal Reserve will raise rates to combat inflation linked to the Iran war, with the 1-year Treasury yield reaching 3.86%, up 38 basis points from last month, indicating growing concerns about a potential economic slowdown.
- Inflationary Pressures: Oil prices have surged to multi-year highs, causing the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to accelerate to 3.8% in April, with projections suggesting it could rise to 6.7% in the second quarter, exerting persistent inflationary pressure on manufacturing and transportation costs.
- Historical Trends Warning: Since 1999, every rate-hike cycle initiated by the Federal Reserve has led to declines in the S&P 500, with drops ranging from 1% to 17% and an average drawdown of 7%, suggesting that current rate hike expectations could pose significant risks to the stock market.
- Investor Sentiment Shift: The CME Group's FedWatch tool indicates that investors initially expected two rate cuts in 2023, but now foresee a rate hike by January 2027, reflecting a growing pessimism about future economic conditions and potential impacts on stock performance.
See More
US Inflation Accelerates to Three-Year High Amid Geopolitical Tensions
- Inflation Surge: CPI inflation accelerated to 3.8% in April, the highest level since 2023, driven by rising energy prices linked to the U.S.-Iran conflict, with forecasts suggesting it could reach 6.7% in the coming months, thereby increasing manufacturing and transportation costs across the economy.
- Rising Bond Yields: Treasury yields have surged recently, with the 30-year yield hitting a 19-year high as investors expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates to combat inflation, indicating growing concerns about potential economic slowdown.
- Increased Stock Market Risks: Historically, the S&P 500 has averaged a 7% decline in the three months following the onset of a new rate-hike cycle since 1999, suggesting that current rate hike expectations could negatively impact stock market performance by limiting corporate investment and expansion plans.
- Market Warning Signals: The bond market is signaling alarm as investors sell Treasuries, driving prices down and yields up, which could adversely affect stock market performance, especially in a high-inflation environment where rising borrowing costs may suppress consumer demand.
See More
New Fed Chairman Faces Inflation Challenges
- New Chairman Sworn In: Kevin Warsh was sworn in as the new chairman of the Federal Reserve last week, having served on the Fed's Board of Governors from 2006 to 2011, and his extensive Wall Street experience will be crucial as he faces an impending inflation crisis.
- Inflation Pressure Intensifies: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose at an annualized rate of 3.8% in April 2024, the highest since May 2023, driven by surging oil prices due to the ongoing war in Iran, indicating increasing inflationary pressures that may force the Fed to raise interest rates again.
- Interest Rate Hike Risks: According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, there is a 68% probability of an interest rate increase by the end of 2026, which could negatively impact the stock market, especially since the S&P 500 index fell over 20% during the Fed's previous 18-month rate hike campaign.
- Producer Price Index Surge: The Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 6% annually in April, with energy components surging by 22.7%, suggesting that businesses may pass on higher input costs to consumers, indicating potential further inflation increases that will pressure Warsh and his colleagues.
See More
