Trump Temporarily Waives U.S. Shipping Law to Stabilize Oil Market
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Mar 18 2026
0mins
Source: CNBC
- Shipping Law Waiver: President Trump announced a 60-day waiver of the Jones Act to stabilize the oil market amid the Iran war, allowing vital resources like oil and natural gas to flow freely to U.S. ports, thereby alleviating supply chain pressures.
- Market Reaction: Following the waiver announcement, Brent crude prices surged over 6% to exceed $109 per barrel, while U.S. oil prices rose 2.95% to $99.05 per barrel, indicating a positive market response to the stabilization of supply chains.
- Policy Background: The Jones Act, enacted in 1920, mandates that goods transported between U.S. ports must be carried by U.S. vessels; this waiver challenges the protectionist nature of the law, reflecting economists' criticisms that it hinders domestic trade.
- Supply Chain Commitment: The White House press secretary stated that the Trump administration is committed to strengthening critical supply chains, indicating a desire to ensure energy supply stability amid attacks on global energy infrastructure.
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Analyst Views on CVX
Wall Street analysts forecast CVX stock price to fall
19 Analyst Rating
15 Buy
4 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 177.580
Low
158.00
Averages
176.95
High
206.00
Current: 177.580
Low
158.00
Averages
176.95
High
206.00
About CVX
Chevron Corporation is an integrated energy company. The Company produces crude oil and natural gas; manufactures transportation fuels, lubricants, petrochemicals and additives; and develops technologies that enhance its business and industry. The Company’s segments include Upstream and Downstream. Upstream operations consist primarily of exploring for, developing, producing and transporting crude oil and natural gas; liquefaction, transportation and regasification associated with LNG; transporting crude oil by major international oil export pipelines; processing, transporting, storage and marketing of natural gas; carbon capture and storage; and a gas-to-liquids plant. Downstream operations consist primarily of the refining of crude oil into petroleum products; marketing crude oil, refined products, and lubricants; manufacturing and marketing of renewable fuels, and transporting of crude oil and refined products by pipeline, marine vessel, motor equipment and rail car.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Oil Price Volatility: Before the outbreak of the Middle East conflict, Brent crude traded around $60, but surged to over $130 as fighting escalated, now settling around $80, indicating market sensitivity to geopolitical events.
- Inventory Warnings: ExxonMobil and Chevron have both cautioned that industry fundamentals are weaker than Wall Street realizes, particularly as the U.S. strategic petroleum reserve has fallen to approximately 340 million barrels, the lowest in 40 years, potentially leading to higher prices ahead.
- Supply Chain Challenges: The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted about 20% of global oil flows, and while the energy sector is accustomed to minor disruptions, the significant impact of this conflict has forced countries and companies to tap reserves to mitigate supply shortages.
- Future Uncertainty: The International Energy Agency projects that global reserves could hit historic lows before oil becomes more available by late 2026, suggesting that while a long-term surplus may lower prices, the short-term market remains uncertain with potential for continued price fluctuations.
See More
Analysis of Brent Crude Oil Price Fluctuations
- Price Decline Trend: Brent crude oil prices have fallen from $130 to $80 per barrel, with the market widely expecting further declines post-conflict, potentially returning to the $60 range, indicating concerns over future supply-demand balance.
- Inventory Warnings: ExxonMobil and Chevron have warned that global energy inventories are at worrying levels, with the U.S. strategic petroleum reserve dropping to approximately 340 million barrels, the lowest in 40 years, suggesting that industry fundamentals may be weaker than Wall Street realizes.
- Geopolitical Impact: The Middle East conflict has disrupted oil transport through the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for about 20% of global oil flow; while prices surged initially, the market may face uncertainty in the long run, with oil prices potentially rising again in the coming months.
- Investment Strategy Recommendation: Given the current volatility in the energy market, investors are advised to focus on financially strong and diversified industry giants like ExxonMobil and Chevron, both of which have historically demonstrated strong resilience, with Chevron offering an attractive dividend yield of around 4% for income-focused investors.
See More
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- Oil Price Volatility: Before the outbreak of the Middle East conflict, Brent crude was trading around $60, surged to $130 during the fighting, and has now settled at $80, indicating market sensitivity to geopolitical risks, with potential for a return to $60 if the ceasefire holds.
- Inventory Concerns: ExxonMobil and Chevron have warned that global energy inventories are at worrying levels, with the U.S. strategic petroleum reserve dropping to 340 million barrels, the lowest in 40 years, highlighting potential supply tightness in the industry.
- Market Uncertainty: The International Energy Agency forecasts that global oil reserves could hit historic lows before becoming more available by late 2026, suggesting that it may take months for the market to stabilize, leading to increased price volatility in the interim.
- Investment Strategy Recommendation: Given the current turmoil in the energy sector, investors are advised to focus on financially strong and diversified industry giants like ExxonMobil and Chevron to navigate market volatility and secure stable dividend yields.
See More
U.S.-Iran Agreement May Boost Equities and Oil Prices
- Market Support: A tentative U.S.-Iran agreement has alleviated concerns over energy supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, potentially providing near-term support for equities while reducing pressure on oil prices and bond yields.
- Political Implications: Lower oil prices could politically benefit Republicans ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, as rising fuel costs and declining approval ratings have negatively impacted their prospects.
- Risk Warnings: Despite recent de-escalation, analysts caution that the agreement should not be seen as a lasting peace, as Tehran may delay key commitments, keeping oil prices elevated in the $90-$100 range.
- Uncertain Future Outlook: Analysts assign a 60% probability of renewed conflict involving Iran later this year or in 2027, with geopolitical tensions and trade disputes seen as potential sources of renewed market volatility.
See More
U.S. Sanctions Losing Effectiveness Against Adversaries
- Declining Sanction Effectiveness: According to a Wall Street Journal report, U.S. sanctions against Iran, Russia, and North Korea have become less effective as these nations employ sophisticated methods to evade them, highlighting the limitations of sanction policies.
- Iran's Economic Resilience: Despite over 1,000 sanctions imposed by the U.S. in the past 18 months, Iran reportedly generated about $43 billion in 2024 through oil sales to China, demonstrating its economic resilience under sanctions.
- Challenges in Enforcement: Russia continues to fund its war efforts despite Western restrictions, while North Korea has expanded its nuclear program through cryptocurrency theft and overseas money-laundering networks, indicating significant challenges in enforcing sanctions.
- Need for Policy Reevaluation: The Trump administration acknowledged the necessity to reassess sanctions policy, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stating that officials are reviewing outdated sanctions programs to identify more effective restrictions.
See More
Zelenskiy Warns of Major Russian Attack Amid Strikes
- Importance of Air Raid Alerts: Ukrainian President Zelenskiy emphasized in a video address the critical need for residents to heed air raid alerts as Russia prepares for a large-scale attack, reflecting the escalating tension and urgent concern for civilian safety.
- Casualties from Strikes: Russian glide bomb attacks in Zaporizhzhia resulted in at least five deaths and ten injuries, indicating an intensification of assaults on Ukrainian cities, which poses a significant threat to local residents' lives.
- Injuries to Children: In Poltava, shelling led to injuries of three children, highlighting the severe impact of the war on innocent civilians, particularly children, and exacerbating international concern over the humanitarian crisis.
- Escalation of Drone Attacks: Zelenskiy reported that Ukrainian drones struck an oil refinery in Russia's Tyumen region, indicating a more aggressive strategy in counterattacks aimed at undermining Russian energy infrastructure, despite failed diplomatic efforts for a ceasefire.
See More
Middle East Conflict Drives Oil Price Volatility
- Oil Price Volatility: Before the outbreak of the Middle East conflict, Brent crude traded around $60, but surged to over $130 as fighting escalated, now settling around $80, indicating market sensitivity to geopolitical events.
- Inventory Warnings: ExxonMobil and Chevron have both cautioned that industry fundamentals are weaker than Wall Street realizes, particularly as the U.S. strategic petroleum reserve has fallen to approximately 340 million barrels, the lowest in 40 years, potentially leading to higher prices ahead.
- Supply Chain Challenges: The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted about 20% of global oil flows, and while the energy sector is accustomed to minor disruptions, the significant impact of this conflict has forced countries and companies to tap reserves to mitigate supply shortages.
- Future Uncertainty: The International Energy Agency projects that global reserves could hit historic lows before oil becomes more available by late 2026, suggesting that while a long-term surplus may lower prices, the short-term market remains uncertain with potential for continued price fluctuations.
See More
Analysis of Brent Crude Oil Price Fluctuations
- Price Decline Trend: Brent crude oil prices have fallen from $130 to $80 per barrel, with the market widely expecting further declines post-conflict, potentially returning to the $60 range, indicating concerns over future supply-demand balance.
- Inventory Warnings: ExxonMobil and Chevron have warned that global energy inventories are at worrying levels, with the U.S. strategic petroleum reserve dropping to approximately 340 million barrels, the lowest in 40 years, suggesting that industry fundamentals may be weaker than Wall Street realizes.
- Geopolitical Impact: The Middle East conflict has disrupted oil transport through the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for about 20% of global oil flow; while prices surged initially, the market may face uncertainty in the long run, with oil prices potentially rising again in the coming months.
- Investment Strategy Recommendation: Given the current volatility in the energy market, investors are advised to focus on financially strong and diversified industry giants like ExxonMobil and Chevron, both of which have historically demonstrated strong resilience, with Chevron offering an attractive dividend yield of around 4% for income-focused investors.
See More
Analysis of Oil Price Fluctuations Post Middle East Conflict
- Oil Price Volatility: Before the outbreak of the Middle East conflict, Brent crude was trading around $60, surged to $130 during the fighting, and has now settled at $80, indicating market sensitivity to geopolitical risks, with potential for a return to $60 if the ceasefire holds.
- Inventory Concerns: ExxonMobil and Chevron have warned that global energy inventories are at worrying levels, with the U.S. strategic petroleum reserve dropping to 340 million barrels, the lowest in 40 years, highlighting potential supply tightness in the industry.
- Market Uncertainty: The International Energy Agency forecasts that global oil reserves could hit historic lows before becoming more available by late 2026, suggesting that it may take months for the market to stabilize, leading to increased price volatility in the interim.
- Investment Strategy Recommendation: Given the current turmoil in the energy sector, investors are advised to focus on financially strong and diversified industry giants like ExxonMobil and Chevron to navigate market volatility and secure stable dividend yields.
See More
U.S.-Iran Agreement May Boost Equities and Oil Prices
- Market Support: A tentative U.S.-Iran agreement has alleviated concerns over energy supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, potentially providing near-term support for equities while reducing pressure on oil prices and bond yields.
- Political Implications: Lower oil prices could politically benefit Republicans ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, as rising fuel costs and declining approval ratings have negatively impacted their prospects.
- Risk Warnings: Despite recent de-escalation, analysts caution that the agreement should not be seen as a lasting peace, as Tehran may delay key commitments, keeping oil prices elevated in the $90-$100 range.
- Uncertain Future Outlook: Analysts assign a 60% probability of renewed conflict involving Iran later this year or in 2027, with geopolitical tensions and trade disputes seen as potential sources of renewed market volatility.
See More
U.S. Sanctions Losing Effectiveness Against Adversaries
- Declining Sanction Effectiveness: According to a Wall Street Journal report, U.S. sanctions against Iran, Russia, and North Korea have become less effective as these nations employ sophisticated methods to evade them, highlighting the limitations of sanction policies.
- Iran's Economic Resilience: Despite over 1,000 sanctions imposed by the U.S. in the past 18 months, Iran reportedly generated about $43 billion in 2024 through oil sales to China, demonstrating its economic resilience under sanctions.
- Challenges in Enforcement: Russia continues to fund its war efforts despite Western restrictions, while North Korea has expanded its nuclear program through cryptocurrency theft and overseas money-laundering networks, indicating significant challenges in enforcing sanctions.
- Need for Policy Reevaluation: The Trump administration acknowledged the necessity to reassess sanctions policy, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stating that officials are reviewing outdated sanctions programs to identify more effective restrictions.
See More
Zelenskiy Warns of Major Russian Attack Amid Strikes
- Importance of Air Raid Alerts: Ukrainian President Zelenskiy emphasized in a video address the critical need for residents to heed air raid alerts as Russia prepares for a large-scale attack, reflecting the escalating tension and urgent concern for civilian safety.
- Casualties from Strikes: Russian glide bomb attacks in Zaporizhzhia resulted in at least five deaths and ten injuries, indicating an intensification of assaults on Ukrainian cities, which poses a significant threat to local residents' lives.
- Injuries to Children: In Poltava, shelling led to injuries of three children, highlighting the severe impact of the war on innocent civilians, particularly children, and exacerbating international concern over the humanitarian crisis.
- Escalation of Drone Attacks: Zelenskiy reported that Ukrainian drones struck an oil refinery in Russia's Tyumen region, indicating a more aggressive strategy in counterattacks aimed at undermining Russian energy infrastructure, despite failed diplomatic efforts for a ceasefire.
See More
