Today's Options Volatility and Implied Earnings Changes - August 18, 2025
Earnings Reports: Major companies reporting earnings today include BHP Group, CBAK Energy Technology, Fabrinet, Palo Alto Networks, Blink Charging Co, XP, Agora, Bitdeer Technologies, and Riskified.
Expected Earnings Moves: TipRanks provides insights into expected stock movements based on options prices prior to earnings announcements, which investors often monitor for potential stock performance.
Pre-Market and After-Hours Releases: Companies reporting before market open include CBAT, BTDR, and RSKD with significant implied moves; after market close, BHP, FN, PANW, BLNK, XP, and API are also expected to show notable changes.
Options Trading Risks: The article emphasizes the risks associated with options trading and advises thorough research before engaging in such activities.
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- Buyback Program Expansion: Riskified's board has authorized a share repurchase program of up to $75 million, which will enhance the company's capital management capabilities and increase shareholder value upon completion of required Israeli regulatory procedures.
- Historical Buyback Authorization: This new buyback authorization supplements the previously approved $375 million repurchase program, with approximately $344.4 million utilized as of June 4, 2026, indicating the company's confidence in its stock.
- Flexible Repurchase Strategy: The company stated that repurchases may occur through open-market transactions, privately negotiated deals, or other means permitted under applicable securities laws, funded from existing cash and cash equivalents, ensuring financial flexibility.
- Management Discretion: Riskified will determine the timing and amount of any repurchases at its discretion, with the program subject to suspension, modification, or discontinuation at any time, reflecting the company's flexibility in capital allocation and strategic adjustments.
- Buyback Program Authorization: On June 4, 2026, Riskified's Board authorized a share repurchase of up to $75 million of Class A ordinary shares, building on an existing $375 million authorization, reflecting the company's confidence in its stock value.
- Clear Funding Source: The company intends to fund the buyback from existing cash and cash equivalents, indicating strong liquidity that allows for capital returns without compromising operational capacity.
- Flexible Market Response: The timing, number, and value of shares repurchased will be determined at the company's discretion based on various factors including market price and economic conditions, showcasing strategic flexibility in capital management.
- Regulatory Compliance Requirements: The buyback program is subject to required Israeli regulatory procedures, and while the company is not obligated to repurchase a specific amount of shares, this indicates a balanced strategy between compliance and market dynamics.
- Earnings Beat: Riskified reported a Q1 non-GAAP EPS of $0.05, exceeding expectations by $0.02, which enhances investor confidence in the company's profitability.
- Revenue Growth: The company achieved Q1 revenue of $88.27 million, reflecting a 7.1% year-over-year increase and surpassing market expectations by $0.55 million, indicating sustained business momentum.
- Upward Revenue Guidance: Riskified now anticipates full-year revenue between $376 million and $384 million, with a midpoint of $380 million, which is above the consensus estimate of $378.77 million, showcasing a positive outlook for future growth.
- Adjusted EBITDA Forecast Increase: The adjusted EBITDA is expected to range from $28 million to $34 million, with a midpoint of $31 million, up from the previous range of $26 million to $34 million, reflecting improved profitability prospects.
- Earnings Announcement Date: Riskified (RSKD) is set to announce its Q1 earnings on May 13 before market open, with a consensus EPS estimate of $0.03, indicating stable profitability year-over-year.
- Revenue Growth Expectations: Analysts project Q1 revenue to reach $87.72 million, reflecting a 6.5% year-over-year increase, suggesting the company's growth potential despite facing market challenges.
- Historical Performance Review: Over the past two years, RSKD has beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time and revenue estimates 88% of the time, demonstrating consistency and reliability in financial performance.
- Estimate Revision Dynamics: In the last three months, EPS estimates saw no upward revisions and three downward adjustments, while revenue estimates experienced two upward revisions and three downward adjustments, indicating a cautious market outlook on the company's future performance.
- Management Team Participation: Riskified Ltd. will participate virtually in the 21st Annual Needham Technology, Media, & Consumer 1×1 Conference on May 14, 2026, showcasing its leadership in ecommerce risk intelligence.
- Ecommerce Growth Empowerment: As a leader in ecommerce fraud and risk intelligence, Riskified helps numerous renowned brands and publicly traded companies enhance online sales and improve customer retention by providing guaranteed protection against chargebacks.
- Data-Driven Decision Making: The Riskified platform, developed by the largest team of ecommerce risk analysts, data scientists, and researchers, analyzes the individual behind each interaction to provide real-time identity-based insights and decision support.
- Industry Impact: By continuously optimizing its risk management solutions, Riskified not only enhances client security but also solidifies its competitive advantage in the rapidly evolving ecommerce market.
- Board Changes: Riskified announced the appointment of Dr. Samer Haj-Yehia to its Board of Directors and Audit Committee effective March 19, 2026, aiming to enhance the company's expertise in global fintech to support the expansion of its AI-driven platform.
- Executive Departure: Aaron Mankovski resigned from the Board on March 17, 2026, after nearly a decade of service, with Chairman Eido Gal expressing gratitude for his contributions that were pivotal in the company's transition from startup to public entity.
- New Member's Background: Dr. Haj-Yehia brings extensive experience from the financial services sector, having served as Executive Group Chairman of Bank Leumi and held senior roles at Fidelity Investments, with his deep knowledge of financial markets poised to support Riskified's long-term growth.
- Board Composition: Following these changes, Riskified's Board will consist of eight directors, six of whom qualify as







