Today's Options Volatility and Implied Earnings Changes - August 18, 2025
Earnings Reports: Major companies reporting earnings today include BHP Group, CBAK Energy Technology, Fabrinet, Palo Alto Networks, Blink Charging Co, XP, Agora, Bitdeer Technologies, and Riskified.
Expected Earnings Moves: TipRanks provides insights into expected stock movements based on options prices prior to earnings announcements, which investors often monitor for potential stock performance.
Pre-Market and After-Hours Releases: Companies reporting before market open include CBAT, BTDR, and RSKD with significant implied moves; after market close, BHP, FN, PANW, BLNK, XP, and API are also expected to show notable changes.
Options Trading Risks: The article emphasizes the risks associated with options trading and advises thorough research before engaging in such activities.
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Analyst Views on RSKD
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- Earnings Announcement Date: Riskified (RSKD) is set to announce its Q1 earnings on May 13 before market open, with a consensus EPS estimate of $0.03, indicating stable profitability year-over-year.
- Revenue Growth Expectations: Analysts project Q1 revenue to reach $87.72 million, reflecting a 6.5% year-over-year increase, suggesting the company's growth potential despite facing market challenges.
- Historical Performance Review: Over the past two years, RSKD has beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time and revenue estimates 88% of the time, demonstrating consistency and reliability in financial performance.
- Estimate Revision Dynamics: In the last three months, EPS estimates saw no upward revisions and three downward adjustments, while revenue estimates experienced two upward revisions and three downward adjustments, indicating a cautious market outlook on the company's future performance.
- Earnings Beat: Riskified reported a Q1 non-GAAP EPS of $0.05, exceeding expectations by $0.02, which enhances investor confidence in the company's profitability.
- Revenue Growth: The company achieved Q1 revenue of $88.27 million, reflecting a 7.1% year-over-year increase and surpassing market expectations by $0.55 million, indicating sustained business momentum.
- Upward Revenue Guidance: Riskified now anticipates full-year revenue between $376 million and $384 million, with a midpoint of $380 million, which is above the consensus estimate of $378.77 million, showcasing a positive outlook for future growth.
- Adjusted EBITDA Forecast Increase: The adjusted EBITDA is expected to range from $28 million to $34 million, with a midpoint of $31 million, up from the previous range of $26 million to $34 million, reflecting improved profitability prospects.
- Management Team Participation: Riskified Ltd. will participate virtually in the 21st Annual Needham Technology, Media, & Consumer 1×1 Conference on May 14, 2026, showcasing its leadership in ecommerce risk intelligence.
- Ecommerce Growth Empowerment: As a leader in ecommerce fraud and risk intelligence, Riskified helps numerous renowned brands and publicly traded companies enhance online sales and improve customer retention by providing guaranteed protection against chargebacks.
- Data-Driven Decision Making: The Riskified platform, developed by the largest team of ecommerce risk analysts, data scientists, and researchers, analyzes the individual behind each interaction to provide real-time identity-based insights and decision support.
- Industry Impact: By continuously optimizing its risk management solutions, Riskified not only enhances client security but also solidifies its competitive advantage in the rapidly evolving ecommerce market.
- Board Changes: Riskified announced the appointment of Dr. Samer Haj-Yehia to its Board of Directors and Audit Committee effective March 19, 2026, aiming to enhance the company's expertise in global fintech to support the expansion of its AI-driven platform.
- Executive Departure: Aaron Mankovski resigned from the Board on March 17, 2026, after nearly a decade of service, with Chairman Eido Gal expressing gratitude for his contributions that were pivotal in the company's transition from startup to public entity.
- New Member's Background: Dr. Haj-Yehia brings extensive experience from the financial services sector, having served as Executive Group Chairman of Bank Leumi and held senior roles at Fidelity Investments, with his deep knowledge of financial markets poised to support Riskified's long-term growth.
- Board Composition: Following these changes, Riskified's Board will consist of eight directors, six of whom qualify as
- Product Launch: Riskified has introduced Dispute Resolve for Shopify brands, designed to streamline the complex chargeback management process through an automated engine, which is expected to significantly reduce the time costs associated with manual operations for merchants.
- Workflow Optimization: The solution features a real-time dashboard that automatically syncs data from various payment gateways, enabling merchants to gain instant clarity into dispute performance, thereby enhancing efficiency and reducing time spent on handling chargebacks.
- Deep Integration: Dispute Resolve further strengthens the integration between Riskified and the Shopify ecosystem, providing comprehensive security across every stage of the customer journey, helping merchants safely approve more orders while mitigating losses from refunds and returns.
- Success Story: Skullcandy leveraged Riskified's Shopify app to achieve a 4x increase in approved revenue while maintaining a mere 0.06% chargeback rate over a 12-month period, demonstrating the platform's effectiveness in enhancing merchant performance and customer experience.
- Strategic Partnership: Riskified has partnered with Radial to integrate its AI-powered platform for payment fraud, refund claims, and return abuse protection, aiming to help merchants increase legitimate order approvals and reduce payment fraud losses, particularly for those using Shopify.
- Global Network Support: With over 20 ecommerce fulfillment centers across North America, Radial supports many recognized retail brands, and by incorporating Riskified's decision-making system, merchants can adjust the checkout experience according to risk without delaying fulfillment, facilitating brand expansion into new markets.
- Real-Time Decisioning: Riskified empowers Radial's customers with accurate, real-time fraud decisions at checkout, approving or declining transactions while assuming full financial liability for fraud chargebacks, achieved through advanced machine learning and a vast global merchant network.
- Policy Protection and Dispute Resolution: The partnership also enables Radial to leverage Riskified's Policy Protect solution to uncover true identities and purchase histories behind orders and claims, allowing for effective fraud prevention policies, while the Dispute Resolve platform streamlines chargeback management, enhancing revenue recovery efficiency.







