Tesla's Q4 Results Could Shake Up These 3 ETFs
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 29 2025
0mins
Source: Benzinga
Tesla's Upcoming Earnings Impact on ETFs: Tesla Inc.'s fourth-quarter earnings report is anticipated to significantly influence several ETFs heavily invested in the company, including the Simplify Volt TSLA Revolution ETF and ARK Autonomous Technology & Robotics ETF, which have substantial allocations to Tesla stock.
Performance Expectations and Challenges: Despite a projected revenue increase to $27.13 billion and a slight rise in earnings per share, Tesla faces challenges with delivery numbers falling short of expectations, marking its first year-over-year decline in vehicle deliveries while continuing to invest in cheaper EV models and AI projects.
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Analyst Views on TSLA
Wall Street analysts forecast TSLA stock price to fall
30 Analyst Rating
12 Buy
11 Hold
7 Sell
Hold
Current: 433.590
Low
25.28
Averages
401.93
High
600.00
Current: 433.590
Low
25.28
Averages
401.93
High
600.00
About TSLA
Tesla, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, sells and leases high-performance fully electric vehicles and energy generation and storage systems, and offers services related to its products. Its segments include automotive, and energy generation and storage. The automotive segment includes the design, development, manufacturing, sales and leasing of high-performance fully electric vehicles, and sales of automotive regulatory credits. It also includes sales of used vehicles, non-warranty maintenance services and collisions, part sales, paid supercharging, insurance services revenue and retail merchandise sales. The energy generation and storage segment include the design, manufacture, installation, sales and leasing of solar energy generation and energy storage products and related services and sales of solar energy systems incentives. Its consumer vehicles include the Model 3, Y, S, X and Cybertruck. Its lithium-ion battery energy storage products include Powerwall and Megapack.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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See More
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- Future Growth Expectations: Investors primarily base SpaceX's valuation on future innovations rather than current profits, with the IPO expected this summer and a valuation between $1.5 trillion and $2 trillion, reflecting market confidence in its long-term growth potential.
- Retail Investor Allocation: CFO Bret Johnsen announced plans to reserve up to 30% of the stock offering for smaller investors, rewarding those who have supported the company for a long time, which could attract more retail participation in the IPO.
- Innovation-Driven Growth: SpaceX has significantly reduced launch costs through reusable rocket technology, and plans to use funds from the IPO to accelerate testing and scaling of the Starship rocket, further enabling business expansion.
- Starlink Revenue Growth: Starlink is currently the only consumer-grade high-speed low-earth-orbit satellite internet network, generating annual operating income of $15 billion to $16 billion, with future service expansions and new business opportunities providing ongoing growth momentum for SpaceX.
See More
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- Merger Prospects: Early investor Peter Diamandis stated that a merger between Tesla and SpaceX is “strategically inevitable,” suggesting that combining their capabilities would create an unprecedented vertically integrated platform, thereby strengthening Musk's control.
- Analyst Insights: ARK Invest's Daniel Maguire emphasized that the focus of SpaceX's IPO should not solely be on short-term financials but rather on the potential for Falcon 9 and Starship to dramatically lower launch costs, unlocking economic viability for future space infrastructure.
See More
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- Bright IPO Prospects: SpaceX is set to launch its IPO on June 12, potentially raising up to $75 billion, with a valuation reaching $1.75 trillion to $2 trillion, marking it as the largest IPO ever, reflecting strong investor interest in emerging tech companies.
- Declining ARPU Trend: According to SpaceX's S-1 filing, the average revenue per user (ARPU) for Starlink is projected to drop from $99 in 2023 to $66 by 2026, a 33% decline, which could impact the company's long-term profitability.
- Significant Customer Growth: Despite the declining ARPU, Starlink's customer base surged by 347%, increasing from 2.3 million in 2023 to 10.3 million currently, showcasing SpaceX's strong ability to attract new customers, with a total addressable market estimated at $1.6 trillion.
- Operational Efficiency Gains: SpaceX's Connectivity segment saw a 120% increase in operating income to $4.4 billion in 2025, with adjusted EBITDA rising 86% to $7.1 billion, indicating significant progress in operational efficiency, even as ARPU declines.
See More
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- Declining Starlink Revenue: SpaceX's Starlink satellite internet service is projected to account for over 60% of sales by 2025, yet its average revenue per user (ARPU) has dropped from $99 in 2023 to $66, with further declines expected, potentially impacting overall profitability.
- Operational Efficiency Gains: Despite the falling ARPU, SpaceX's Connectivity segment saw operating income soar 120% to $4.4 billion in 2025, while adjusted EBITDA rose 86% to $7.1 billion, indicating the company's efforts to enhance operational efficiency may offset revenue declines.
- Rapid Customer Base Growth: Starlink's customer count surged 347% from 2.3 million in 2023 to 10.3 million, showcasing SpaceX's strong performance in attracting new customers, with a total addressable market (TAM) for connectivity estimated at $1.6 trillion, highlighting significant growth potential.
- Promising IPO Outlook: SpaceX is expected to raise up to $75 billion in its upcoming IPO, potentially achieving a valuation of $1.75 trillion to $2 trillion, making it the largest IPO in history; however, investors should monitor the ongoing decline in ARPU and the company's ability to improve operational efficiencies for profitability.
See More
