Tesla Semi Deliveries Set to Begin Amid Rising Oil Prices
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Mar 23 2026
0mins
Source: stocktwits
- Electrification Potential: Rising oil prices have highlighted the potential value of electrification and energy diversity, leading to increased attention on Tesla, although concerns about its service and parts distribution capabilities persist.
- Buy Rating and Price Target: Melius Research has assigned a ‘Buy’ rating to Tesla shares with a price target of $590, indicating a positive outlook for the company's future performance.
- Tesla Semi Deliveries: Deliveries of the Tesla Semi are slated to commence this year, marking an expansion into the commercial customer market, although its competitiveness in the trucking sector needs to be bolstered.
- Competitive Pressure: Compared to competitors like Paccar and Caterpillar, Tesla's lack of significant investment in post-delivery service may hinder its competitive position in the trucking market.
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Analyst Views on TSLA
Wall Street analysts forecast TSLA stock price to rise
30 Analyst Rating
12 Buy
11 Hold
7 Sell
Hold
Current: 396.380
Low
25.28
Averages
401.93
High
600.00
Current: 396.380
Low
25.28
Averages
401.93
High
600.00
About TSLA
Tesla, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, sells and leases high-performance fully electric vehicles and energy generation and storage systems, and offers services related to its products. Its segments include automotive, and energy generation and storage. The automotive segment includes the design, development, manufacturing, sales and leasing of high-performance fully electric vehicles, and sales of automotive regulatory credits. It also includes sales of used vehicles, non-warranty maintenance services and collisions, part sales, paid supercharging, insurance services revenue and retail merchandise sales. The energy generation and storage segment include the design, manufacture, installation, sales and leasing of solar energy generation and energy storage products and related services and sales of solar energy systems incentives. Its consumer vehicles include the Model 3, Y, S, X and Cybertruck. Its lithium-ion battery energy storage products include Powerwall and Megapack.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Revenue Growth: In fiscal year 2025, SpaceX's revenue increased by 33% year-over-year to $18.7 billion, despite reporting a net loss per share of $1.69, indicating strong growth potential that continues to attract investor interest.
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- Revenue Decline Warning: In 2025, Tesla's total revenue was $94.8 billion, reflecting a year-over-year decline that highlights increased competition in the EV market, prompting investors to consider the macroeconomic factors affecting company performance.
- Strategic Transformation Goals: Tesla aims to be more than just an EV manufacturer, focusing on leveraging AI technology for autonomous driving and humanoid robots, showcasing its technological foresight and potential for diversification in the premium EV market.
- Market Expectations Too High: With a price-to-earnings ratio of 363, Tesla's stock reflects exceedingly high market expectations for future growth, suggesting that investors should adopt a cautious outlook when considering the next decade's stock performance to avoid unrealistic expectations.
See More
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- Strong IPO Performance: SpaceX completed the world's largest IPO, opening at $150 and closing at $191, achieving a market value exceeding $2.5 trillion, indicating strong investor interest in its technology and market potential.
- Retail Investor Participation: Over 20% of shares were allocated to retail investors in this IPO, significantly higher than the typical 5% to 10%, reflecting SpaceX's commitment to ordinary investors and further fueling market enthusiasm.
- Technological and Innovation Edge: SpaceX leads in rocket launches and satellite internet services while actively developing its AI business, which is expected to achieve business goals through low costs and high control, enhancing its competitive position in the market.
- Future Challenges and Risks: Despite strong initial performance, SpaceX faces $12 billion in capital expenditures and a $4.9 billion loss, prompting investors to monitor its financial health and the risks associated with relying on new technologies for growth, which may impact stock performance.
See More
SpaceX Stock Price Prediction and Risk Analysis
- Lockup Period Impact: SpaceX's lockup schedule allows up to 20% of insider shares to be sold from late July to August, with a potential 10% increase if the stock closes above the IPO price of $135 for five out of ten consecutive trading days, which could create selling pressure and negatively impact share price.
- Earnings Volatility Risk: The upcoming Q2 and Q3 earnings reports are likely to significantly affect SpaceX's stock price, as a substantial beat or miss of Wall Street estimates could lead to dramatic price swings, necessitating careful risk assessment by investors.
- Potential New Share Issuance: The revised S-1 filing indicates that SpaceX may issue a significant amount of equity for future acquisitions, fueling speculation about a merger with Tesla; if a large number of new shares are issued, it could dilute existing shareholders and further impact stock valuation.
- Cautious Prediction: My forecast suggests that SpaceX's stock will trade between $150 and $160 by December 31, 2026, reflecting a moderate gain for those who bought at the IPO price of $135, but indicating a significant loss for those who purchased shares above $200, highlighting a mix of optimism and caution regarding the company's future prospects.
See More
Analyzing the Prospects of SpaceX's IPO
- Market Dominance: SpaceX captures 51% of the orbital launch market in 2025, demonstrating its strong competitive position in space launches, while its Starlink service accounts for 54% of operational satellites in orbit, providing a solid market foundation.
- Revenue Growth Potential: In fiscal year 2025, SpaceX's revenue increased by 33% year-over-year to $18.7 billion, despite facing a net loss of $1.69 per share, but its future market potential remains widely regarded as promising, especially with a $28.5 trillion market opportunity ahead.
- Innovation Drive: SpaceX is developing the next-generation fully reusable rocket, Starship, which is expected to further revolutionize the aerospace industry, and its expansion into artificial intelligence and internet services indicates a strategic positioning in multiple high-growth sectors.
- Valuation Risks: Although SpaceX's valuation stands at $2.4 trillion, nearly matching Amazon's $2.6 trillion, its financial performance appears less robust in comparison, prompting investors to be cautious of potential risks associated with high valuations, especially amid increasing competition.
See More
SpaceX's Ambitious Revolution in Space Travel
- Market Dominance: SpaceX commands a remarkable 51% of the orbital launch market in 2025, showcasing its strong competitive edge in the aerospace sector, while its Starlink service accounts for 54% of operational satellites in orbit, solidifying its lead in satellite internet services.
- Revenue Growth and Challenges: Despite a 33% year-over-year revenue increase to $18.7 billion in fiscal year 2025, SpaceX reported a net loss per share of $1.69, highlighting financial pressures amid rapid expansion, prompting investors to carefully assess its lofty $2.4 trillion valuation.
- Future Market Potential: SpaceX estimates its addressable market at a staggering $28.5 trillion, and capturing even a fraction of this could yield returns surpassing Tesla's; however, the rise of competitors poses a significant threat to its market share.
- Dual Role of Leadership: Elon Musk's role as CEO of two major public companies may attract investors, yet his tendency to exaggerate timelines and projections could lead to market volatility, necessitating caution from investors regarding potential risks.
See More
Can SpaceX Deliver Tesla-Level Returns?
- Market Dominance: SpaceX captures 51% of the orbital launch market in 2025, showcasing its strong competitive position in the aerospace industry, while its Starlink service accounts for 54% of operational satellites in orbit, further solidifying its market leadership.
- Revenue Growth: In fiscal year 2025, SpaceX's revenue increased by 33% year-over-year to $18.7 billion, despite reporting a net loss per share of $1.69, indicating strong growth potential that continues to attract investor interest.
- Massive Market Opportunity: SpaceX estimates its addressable market at $28.5 trillion, and capturing even a fraction of this could lead to returns surpassing those of Tesla, drawing the attention of long-term investors.
- Competition and Valuation Risks: While SpaceX currently leads, increasing competition and a staggering $2.4 trillion valuation make investors cautious, especially under Elon Musk's leadership, where market expectations for future performance could lead to stock price volatility.
See More
