Freshpet Reports EPS of $1.86 and Revenue of $288.8M, Exceeding Expectations by $5.07M
Q3 Financial Performance: Freshpet reported a Q3 EPS of $1.86, significantly higher than the consensus estimate of $0.40, with a net income of $101.7 million, boosted by a $77.9 million tax benefit, compared to $11.9 million in the previous year.
Revenue Growth: The company achieved revenue of $288.8 million, a 14% year-over-year increase, driven by a 12.9% volume gain and a favorable price/mix of 1.1%, surpassing expectations by $5.07 million.
Updated Guidance for 2025: Freshpet revised its full-year 2025 guidance, projecting net sales growth of approximately 13%, adjusted EBITDA between $190 million and $195 million, and capital expenditures around $140 million.
Market Challenges: Freshpet faced a downgrade from BofA Securities due to slowing pet spending, easing adoptions, and increasing competition in the market.
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- Market Recovery Signals: Pet supply stocks like Chewy (CHWY) and FreshPet (FRPT) are showing signs of recovery after a prolonged period of underperformance in 2025, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment that may attract more investor interest.
- Technical Indicator Improvement: CHWY has reversed a 10-month downtrend, with recent bullish intermediate-term developments as weekly stochastics show a decisive upturn from oversold territory, and the weekly MACD issues its first buy signal in nearly a year, marking a significant momentum shift.
- Support and Resistance Analysis: CHWY faces next resistance at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level near $32.60, while FRPT encounters resistance at the March high near $86, with support around $60, suggesting both stocks have the potential for a more substantial rebound.
- Long-Term Trend Outlook: FRPT's long-term oversold upturn since February lays a bullish foundation for the remainder of the year, and the pinched monthly MACD suggests a cyclical uptrend may be forming, further boosting investor confidence.
- Securities Fraud Investigation: Pomerantz LLP is investigating Freshpet, Inc. for potential securities fraud or other unlawful business practices, which could undermine investor confidence and lead to stock price volatility.
- Advertising Claims Issues: The BBB National Programs' advertising division found that some of Freshpet's dog food claims lack support and recommended discontinuing the assertion that its products are 'human grade,' potentially harming brand image and market competitiveness.
- Significant Stock Price Drop: Following the BBB announcement, Freshpet's stock price fell by $7.95, or 10.55%, closing at $67.42 on March 17, 2026, indicating market uncertainty regarding the company's future.
- Potential Legal Consequences: If the investigation confirms Freshpet's involvement in fraud, the company may face class action lawsuits and substantial damages, further exacerbating financial pressures and impacting its long-term strategic development.
- Market Competition Analysis: Despite the new private label from Costco and Farmer's Dog's expansion on Walmart.com, TD Cowen believes Freshpet (FRPT) has sufficient scale and competitive advantages to effectively counter these threats, expecting to capture market share from traditional dry and wet food formats.
- Stock Price Retracement Opportunity: Freshpet's stock has retraced 17% over the past 30 days, with TD Cowen rating it as a Buy and setting a target price of $80, indicating a 27% upside from Tuesday's closing price, reflecting confidence in its future growth.
- Retail Space Advantage: Costco's expansion of pet food refrigerator space by 60% provides additional shelf space for both Kirkland and Freshpet, which TD Cowen believes will help Freshpet offset losses from Kirkland, further solidifying its market position.
- Pricing Strategy: Although Farmer's Dog sells at a 35% premium on Walmart.com compared to its website, TD Cowen believes this will not pose a risk to Freshpet's sales, as Walmart plans to exclude Farmer's Dog from its brick-and-mortar stores, ensuring stability for Freshpet in that channel.
- New Social Media Regulation: Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis announced a ban on social media for children under 15 starting January 1, 2027, aimed at addressing rising youth anxiety and sleep deprivation, which is expected to have a profound impact on digital advertising models.
- Strong Public Support: The initiative enjoys 80% support among domestic adults, reflecting a broad societal consensus on the importance of protecting youth mental health, which may catalyze further regulatory actions within the EU.
- Big Tech Challenges: Companies like Meta and Snap may face direct threats to their user acquisition channels due to stricter age restrictions, potentially cooling their engagement metrics in the European market.
- Increased Compliance Costs: As Greece pressures the EU for unified age limits, Alphabet may encounter higher compliance costs and potential declines in ad revenue, particularly if platforms like YouTube are swept into broader regulatory bans.
- Securities Fraud Investigation: Pomerantz LLP is investigating whether Freshpet, Inc. has engaged in securities fraud or other unlawful business practices, prompting investors to reach out for more information, which raises serious concerns about the company's governance and compliance.
- Advertising Claims Issues: The BBB National Programs' advertising division found certain claims made by Freshpet regarding its dog food misleading, particularly the assertion that it is 'human grade,' recommending that such claims be discontinued, highlighting compliance risks in the company's marketing strategies.
- Significant Stock Price Drop: Following the BBB's announcement, Freshpet's stock price fell by $7.95, or 10.55%, closing at $67.42 per share on March 17, 2026, indicating market apprehension regarding the company's future outlook.
- Potential Legal Consequences: The investigation may expose Freshpet to class action lawsuits, with Pomerantz LLP, a prominent securities litigation firm, potentially seeking substantial damages for investors, thereby increasing the legal and financial pressures on the company.
- Advertising Misleading Investigation: Freshpet's dog food advertisements have been deemed misleading, particularly the claims that their products are made like human food, leading the BBB National Advertising Division to recommend discontinuation of such statements, which could impact brand reputation and sales.
- Significant Stock Drop: Following the misleading advertising findings, Freshpet's stock price plummeted from $75.37 on March 16 to $67.42 on March 17, representing a nearly 11% decline, reflecting market concerns about the company's future performance.
- Legal Rights Notification: Kessler Topaz Meltzer & Check LLP is investigating potential violations of federal securities laws by Freshpet, encouraging affected investors to reach out to understand their legal rights, which may lead to increased legal actions from investors.
- Investor Losses Substantial: The stock price drop due to advertising issues has resulted in significant financial losses for Freshpet's investors, potentially affecting the company's performance in capital markets and its future financing capabilities.










