SPTM's Underlying Holdings Imply 18% Gain Potential
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Apr 01 2025
0mins
Should l Buy EAT?
Source: NASDAQ.COM
ETF Analysis: The SPDR Portfolio S&P 1500 Composite Stock Market ETF (SPTM) has an implied analyst target price of $79.72, indicating an 18.47% potential upside from its current trading price of $67.29.
Stock Performance Insights: Notable underlying holdings such as Seacoast Banking Corp., Brinker International, and ePlus Inc. show significant upside potential based on analyst targets, raising questions about the validity of these forecasts amidst market conditions.
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Analyst Views on EAT
Wall Street analysts forecast EAT stock price to rise
16 Analyst Rating
11 Buy
5 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 162.540
Low
145.00
Averages
172.86
High
210.00
Current: 162.540
Low
145.00
Averages
172.86
High
210.00
About EAT
Brinker International, Inc. is a casual dining restaurant company. The Company owns, develops, operates and franchises the Chili’s Grill & Bar (Chili’s) and Maggiano’s Little Italy (Maggiano’s) restaurant brands. The Company operates through two segments: Chili’s and Maggiano’s. The Chili’s segment includes its Company-owned Chili’s restaurants, which are principally located in the United States, within the full-service casual dining segment of the industry. The Chili’s segment also includes its Canadian Company-owned restaurants and royalties from its franchised locations in the United States, 27 other countries and two United States territories. The Maggiano’s segment includes its Company-owned Maggiano's restaurants in the United States as well as royalties from its domestic franchise business. It owns, operates or franchises more than 1,600 restaurants in the United States and 27 other countries and two United States territories.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Chili's Launches Margarita of the Month Club
- Club Launch: Chili's® Grill & Bar introduces the Margarita of the Month Club to engage super fans who visit monthly to try new drinks, potentially boosting sales from nearly 30 million margaritas sold in 2025.
- Member Benefits: Guests can join the club for free, track their monthly margarita consumption, and purchase unique merchandise, enhancing brand loyalty and customer engagement.
- Limited Edition Merchandise: To celebrate the club's launch, Chili's releases a line of collectible items showcased in short films that highlight the brand's yacht-club aesthetic, aiming to attract younger consumers.
- Holiday Promotions: On National Margarita Day, February 22, Chili's will offer special margarita deals at participating locations for guests aged 21 and over, further enhancing the brand's market presence.
See More
Chili's Launches Limited-Edition Margarita Club
- Margarita Club Launch: Chili's® Grill & Bar has launched the Margarita of the Month Club to engage its super fans, having sold nearly 30 million margaritas in 2025, making it the top-selling restaurant brand in the U.S., thereby reinforcing its market leadership.
- Limited-Edition Merchandise: To celebrate the club's launch, Chili's is releasing a line of collectible merchandise, including a $45 cabana shirt and a $30 snapback hat, aimed at attracting more customers and enhancing brand loyalty through unique branding.
- National Margarita Day Promotions: On February 22, National Margarita Day, Chili's will offer various margarita specials, including a $5 Tequila Classic and a $7 PATRÓN® Frozen Margarita, expected to draw large crowds and boost restaurant traffic and sales.
- Membership Benefits: Guests joining the Margarita Club can track their monthly margarita tastings for free and purchase exclusive merchandise, further enhancing customer engagement and brand affinity, fostering long-term customer relationships.
See More
Brinker International CFO Sells 5,000 Shares Amid Strong Earnings
- Executive Stock Sale: Brinker International CFO Michaela Ware sold 5,000 shares at a weighted average price of $162.40 on February 5, 2026, totaling approximately $812,000, indicating a routine transaction amidst the company's strong performance.
- Ownership Position Change: This sale reduced Ware's direct holdings by 17.74%, leaving her with 19,923 shares directly held, while she maintains 3,259 shares indirectly through her 401(k), suggesting continued confidence in the company's future.
- Strong Performance Boost: Brinker International reported $1.5 billion in sales for fiscal Q2 2026, a 7.1% increase year-over-year, with Chili's achieving 19 consecutive quarters of same-store sales growth, highlighting robust performance in the casual dining sector.
- Optimistic Future Outlook: The company raised its fiscal 2026 sales guidance to between $5.76 billion and $5.83 billion, reflecting market confidence in its growth potential, while the current P/E ratio of 17 is lower than last year, potentially offering a buying opportunity for investors.
See More
Restaurant Stocks Struggle in 2025 Amid Consumer Shifts
- Overall Industry Decline: In 2025, restaurant stocks fell approximately 0.7%, significantly trailing the S&P 500's 16% gain, indicating severe challenges within the sector that investors need to carefully assess for future prospects.
- Individual Stock Volatility: Sweetgreen's stock plummeted by 80%, Cava Group dropped 50%, and Chipotle Mexican Grill fell 30%, reflecting a lack of confidence in the restaurant industry that could impact investor decisions moving forward.
- Shifts in Consumer Behavior: Although industry sales are projected to grow by 4% to $1.5 trillion in 2025, declining guest traffic puts pressure on many operators, as consumers become more price-sensitive, intensifying competition among quick-service and casual dining sectors.
- Profitability Metrics: Chipotle maintains a restaurant-level operating margin around 24.5%, showcasing its profitability amid rising costs, while Texas Roadhouse achieved approximately 5% same-store sales growth in Q3, demonstrating resilience and competitiveness in the market.
See More
Chili's Restaurant's Successful Transformation and Growth
- Brand History and Expansion: Since its founding in 1975 in Texas, Chili's has grown into a globally recognized casual dining chain with over 1,200 locations in the U.S. and 400 internationally, making it the third-largest casual dining brand in the U.S., showcasing its strong market appeal and brand value.
- Significant Sales Growth: Chili's same-store sales grew an average of 12% between 2022 and 2025, outpacing the casual dining sector by 680 basis points, indicating its success in attracting more customers during a time of consumer dissatisfaction with high-priced fast food, thereby increasing market share.
- Strategic Transformation and Leadership: Since 2022, CEO Kevin Hochman has focused on the three T's—Traffic, Tickets, and Team—by reducing menu items by 25% and enhancing social media marketing, significantly improving customer experience and operational efficiency, driving sustained brand growth.
- Market Opportunities and Product Innovation: Chili's is set to launch a “super premium chicken sandwich” lineup in April, leveraging a substantial advertising campaign to capitalize on the consumer shift from expensive beef to more affordable chicken, further solidifying its competitive position in the dining market.
See More
Analysis of the Rebound in Fast-Casual Stocks
- Rebound in Fast-Casual Stocks: In 2025, fast-casual stocks like Wingstop, Chipotle, Cava, and Sweetgreen suffered losses ranging from 15% to 78%, but have shown double-digit rebounds in early 2026, indicating a restoration of market confidence in the sector.
- Shifts in Consumer Preferences: Data shows that the share of consumers opting for deli-prepared foods over restaurant meals has more than doubled since 2017, rising from 12% to 28%, highlighting increased competition for fast-casual dining amid economic pressures.
- Pricing Strategy Missteps: Analysts note that fast-casual companies have aggressively raised menu prices over the past year, leading to heightened consumer sensitivity, particularly as prices exceed $16, prompting consumers to reassess their value.
- Market Expectation Reset: As market expectations for fast-casual stocks adjust, investors are beginning to refocus on the fundamentals of these businesses, particularly the strong long-term performance of companies like Chipotle and Wingstop, which may attract renewed capital inflows.
See More
Chili's Launches Margarita of the Month Club
- Club Launch: Chili's® Grill & Bar introduces the Margarita of the Month Club to engage super fans who visit monthly to try new drinks, potentially boosting sales from nearly 30 million margaritas sold in 2025.
- Member Benefits: Guests can join the club for free, track their monthly margarita consumption, and purchase unique merchandise, enhancing brand loyalty and customer engagement.
- Limited Edition Merchandise: To celebrate the club's launch, Chili's releases a line of collectible items showcased in short films that highlight the brand's yacht-club aesthetic, aiming to attract younger consumers.
- Holiday Promotions: On National Margarita Day, February 22, Chili's will offer special margarita deals at participating locations for guests aged 21 and over, further enhancing the brand's market presence.
See More
Chili's Launches Limited-Edition Margarita Club
- Margarita Club Launch: Chili's® Grill & Bar has launched the Margarita of the Month Club to engage its super fans, having sold nearly 30 million margaritas in 2025, making it the top-selling restaurant brand in the U.S., thereby reinforcing its market leadership.
- Limited-Edition Merchandise: To celebrate the club's launch, Chili's is releasing a line of collectible merchandise, including a $45 cabana shirt and a $30 snapback hat, aimed at attracting more customers and enhancing brand loyalty through unique branding.
- National Margarita Day Promotions: On February 22, National Margarita Day, Chili's will offer various margarita specials, including a $5 Tequila Classic and a $7 PATRÓN® Frozen Margarita, expected to draw large crowds and boost restaurant traffic and sales.
- Membership Benefits: Guests joining the Margarita Club can track their monthly margarita tastings for free and purchase exclusive merchandise, further enhancing customer engagement and brand affinity, fostering long-term customer relationships.
See More
Brinker International CFO Sells 5,000 Shares Amid Strong Earnings
- Executive Stock Sale: Brinker International CFO Michaela Ware sold 5,000 shares at a weighted average price of $162.40 on February 5, 2026, totaling approximately $812,000, indicating a routine transaction amidst the company's strong performance.
- Ownership Position Change: This sale reduced Ware's direct holdings by 17.74%, leaving her with 19,923 shares directly held, while she maintains 3,259 shares indirectly through her 401(k), suggesting continued confidence in the company's future.
- Strong Performance Boost: Brinker International reported $1.5 billion in sales for fiscal Q2 2026, a 7.1% increase year-over-year, with Chili's achieving 19 consecutive quarters of same-store sales growth, highlighting robust performance in the casual dining sector.
- Optimistic Future Outlook: The company raised its fiscal 2026 sales guidance to between $5.76 billion and $5.83 billion, reflecting market confidence in its growth potential, while the current P/E ratio of 17 is lower than last year, potentially offering a buying opportunity for investors.
See More
Restaurant Stocks Struggle in 2025 Amid Consumer Shifts
- Overall Industry Decline: In 2025, restaurant stocks fell approximately 0.7%, significantly trailing the S&P 500's 16% gain, indicating severe challenges within the sector that investors need to carefully assess for future prospects.
- Individual Stock Volatility: Sweetgreen's stock plummeted by 80%, Cava Group dropped 50%, and Chipotle Mexican Grill fell 30%, reflecting a lack of confidence in the restaurant industry that could impact investor decisions moving forward.
- Shifts in Consumer Behavior: Although industry sales are projected to grow by 4% to $1.5 trillion in 2025, declining guest traffic puts pressure on many operators, as consumers become more price-sensitive, intensifying competition among quick-service and casual dining sectors.
- Profitability Metrics: Chipotle maintains a restaurant-level operating margin around 24.5%, showcasing its profitability amid rising costs, while Texas Roadhouse achieved approximately 5% same-store sales growth in Q3, demonstrating resilience and competitiveness in the market.
See More
Chili's Restaurant's Successful Transformation and Growth
- Brand History and Expansion: Since its founding in 1975 in Texas, Chili's has grown into a globally recognized casual dining chain with over 1,200 locations in the U.S. and 400 internationally, making it the third-largest casual dining brand in the U.S., showcasing its strong market appeal and brand value.
- Significant Sales Growth: Chili's same-store sales grew an average of 12% between 2022 and 2025, outpacing the casual dining sector by 680 basis points, indicating its success in attracting more customers during a time of consumer dissatisfaction with high-priced fast food, thereby increasing market share.
- Strategic Transformation and Leadership: Since 2022, CEO Kevin Hochman has focused on the three T's—Traffic, Tickets, and Team—by reducing menu items by 25% and enhancing social media marketing, significantly improving customer experience and operational efficiency, driving sustained brand growth.
- Market Opportunities and Product Innovation: Chili's is set to launch a “super premium chicken sandwich” lineup in April, leveraging a substantial advertising campaign to capitalize on the consumer shift from expensive beef to more affordable chicken, further solidifying its competitive position in the dining market.
See More
Analysis of the Rebound in Fast-Casual Stocks
- Rebound in Fast-Casual Stocks: In 2025, fast-casual stocks like Wingstop, Chipotle, Cava, and Sweetgreen suffered losses ranging from 15% to 78%, but have shown double-digit rebounds in early 2026, indicating a restoration of market confidence in the sector.
- Shifts in Consumer Preferences: Data shows that the share of consumers opting for deli-prepared foods over restaurant meals has more than doubled since 2017, rising from 12% to 28%, highlighting increased competition for fast-casual dining amid economic pressures.
- Pricing Strategy Missteps: Analysts note that fast-casual companies have aggressively raised menu prices over the past year, leading to heightened consumer sensitivity, particularly as prices exceed $16, prompting consumers to reassess their value.
- Market Expectation Reset: As market expectations for fast-casual stocks adjust, investors are beginning to refocus on the fundamentals of these businesses, particularly the strong long-term performance of companies like Chipotle and Wingstop, which may attract renewed capital inflows.
See More
