SpaceX's Record IPO Raises Concerns for Future Performance
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jun 30 2026
0mins
Source: Fool
- Record IPO Financing: SpaceX's recent IPO raised $85.7 billion, setting a new record, yet market expectations for its future performance remain cautious, indicating potential stock price volatility ahead.
- Historical Performance Comparison: Analyzing past major IPOs reveals that most underperform in their first year; however, SpaceX's current valuation of $2.2 trillion suggests that future growth expectations are already priced in.
- Shareholder Dilution Risk: The IPO only sold about 4% of SpaceX's shares, and with early investors' shares unlocking over the next year, the available shares in the market will significantly increase, potentially exerting downward pressure on the stock price.
- Changing Market Environment: The abundance of private capital means companies often go public at a more mature stage, leading to diminished growth expectations post-IPO, a trend reflected in SpaceX's situation where future growth may already be fully priced in.
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Analyst Views on SPCX
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About SPCX
Space Exploration Technologies Corp. designs, manufactures, launches, and operates products and services built on technologies, including rockets and spacecraft. The Company's segments include Space, Connectivity, and artificial intelligence (AI). Its Space segment designs, manufactures, and launches reusable rockets to provide access to space. Its Connectivity segment operates broadband data and communications network powered by approximately 9,600 Starlink broadband and mobile satellites in Low-Earth orbit, delivering connectivity to consumer, enterprises, and government customers over 164 countries, territories, and other markets. In its AI segment, it operates a vertically integrated AI platform spanning its truth-seeking frontier model Grok, AI solutions for consumer and enterprise customers, X-its real-time information, entertainment, and free speech platform and AI computational infrastructure.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Shareholder Impact: The acquisition will increase SpaceX's share count by approximately 3%, or 365.9 million shares, relative to its current diluted share count of 13.2 billion, indicating a relatively minor dilution for existing investors and showcasing the deal's financing rationale.
- Market Competition: Once the acquisition closes, SpaceX plans to integrate Cursor's AI coding tool into its xAI platform, which could enhance its competitiveness against rivals like Anthropic and OpenAI, although it still faces significant competitive pressures in the AI coding space.
- Future Outlook: While Cursor is currently unprofitable and expected to add to SpaceX's overall losses, the market remains optimistic about SpaceX's potential in the AI sector, with key projects like Starlink and Starship likely to have a more substantial impact on stock performance in the near term.
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- Price Volatility Analysis: Following the first day, SpaceX's stock peaked at $226 before retreating to around $162, reflecting extreme volatility post-IPO, which investors should monitor for potential market corrections.
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- Investor Sentiment: While SpaceX's fundamentals differ from Snowflake's, both attracted momentum-driven investors, and shifts in market sentiment could lead to a return to more reasonable valuations, necessitating caution among investors chasing short-term gains.
See More
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- Selling Excess Computing Power: Meta is considering selling its excess computing capacity, similar to Amazon and SpaceX, which could create a new revenue stream to partially offset the high costs associated with AI development.
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- Bond Market Reaction: Despite the stock market's strong performance, SpaceX's bonds are rated BB, trading at an average premium of 1.62 percentage points, indicating high credit risk, with a 4.22% default rate that significantly exceeds the historical rates of investment-grade bonds, highlighting concerns about its financial health.
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See More
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- Acquisition Context: SpaceX announced a $60 billion all-stock acquisition of Anysphere, the developer of the AI coding platform Cursor, marking a significant pivot towards AI following its IPO, although the immediate impact on stock performance has been limited.
- Shareholder Impact: The acquisition will increase SpaceX's share count by approximately 3%, or 365.9 million shares, relative to its current diluted share count of 13.2 billion, indicating a relatively minor dilution for existing investors and showcasing the deal's financing rationale.
- Market Competition: Once the acquisition closes, SpaceX plans to integrate Cursor's AI coding tool into its xAI platform, which could enhance its competitiveness against rivals like Anthropic and OpenAI, although it still faces significant competitive pressures in the AI coding space.
- Future Outlook: While Cursor is currently unprofitable and expected to add to SpaceX's overall losses, the market remains optimistic about SpaceX's potential in the AI sector, with key projects like Starlink and Starship likely to have a more substantial impact on stock performance in the near term.
See More
Bullish Analyst Ratings Surge for SpaceX Ahead of IPO
- Bullish Analyst Ratings: Ahead of SpaceX's IPO, 19 analysts issued ratings, with nearly all being buy or strong buy, and a median price target of $250, indicating a potential upside of 56% from Monday's closing price, reflecting strong market confidence in its future performance.
- Wide Range of Price Targets: Analysts' price targets vary from $131 to $800, with 14 analysts clustering between $200 and $250, resulting in an average target of $225, suggesting about a 40% potential upside, showcasing the market's strong optimism for SpaceX.
- Cautious Analyst Perspective: MoffettNathanson's analyst Julie Zhu issued a neutral rating with a target of $131, expressing concerns over CEO Elon Musk's ambitious plans that may not be feasible in the short term, potentially leading to an 18% downside risk for investors, highlighting valuation concerns.
- Optimistic Outlook with Risks: Raymond James analyst Brian Gesuale issued a strong buy rating with a target as high as $800, predicting SpaceX could grow revenue to $837 billion by 2031, although the stock's volatility suggests investors should approach with caution.
See More
Anthropic and OpenAI Intensify IPO Race Amid AI Model Launches
- AI Model Releases: Anthropic has restored access to its flagship AI models, Mythos and Fable, while launching Sonnet 5, aiming to attract more developers with competitive offerings ahead of its IPO.
- OpenAI's New Model Launch: OpenAI announced the public release of its flagship GPT-5.6 Sol AI model on Thursday, despite a previous delay due to national security concerns, which will further solidify its market position.
- Intensified IPO Competition: Both OpenAI and Anthropic have filed confidential IPO applications with regulators, although OpenAI's timeline has shifted; Anthropic's annual revenue has tripled to $30 billion, surpassing OpenAI's $24 billion, indicating its market advantage.
- Valuation Discrepancies: According to Nasdaq Private Market data, Anthropic is valued at $1.09 trillion compared to OpenAI's $867.9 billion, highlighting the intensifying competition between the two companies in the AI sector.
See More
SpaceX IPO Generates Unprecedented Market Excitement
- First Day Trading Performance: SpaceX's IPO was priced at $135 per share but opened at $150, closing the first day at $161, indicating strong market demand and investor enthusiasm.
- Price Volatility Analysis: Following the first day, SpaceX's stock peaked at $226 before retreating to around $162, reflecting extreme volatility post-IPO, which investors should monitor for potential market corrections.
- Historical Comparison: The excitement surrounding SpaceX's IPO parallels Snowflake's debut in 2020, where the stock doubled on the first day but later faced prolonged price adjustments, serving as a cautionary tale for investors.
- Investor Sentiment: While SpaceX's fundamentals differ from Snowflake's, both attracted momentum-driven investors, and shifts in market sentiment could lead to a return to more reasonable valuations, necessitating caution among investors chasing short-term gains.
See More
Meta Plans to Spend $145 Billion on AI by 2026
- Massive Investment Plan: Meta plans to invest up to $145 billion in AI by 2026, a staggering amount that raises concerns on Wall Street regarding the potential returns, which could impact shareholder confidence.
- Selling Excess Computing Power: Meta is considering selling its excess computing capacity, similar to Amazon and SpaceX, which could create a new revenue stream to partially offset the high costs associated with AI development.
- Stock Performance Struggles: Over the past year, Meta's stock has declined by more than 15%, and it is down 7% in 2026 so far, making the company's current valuation metrics appear attractive with a forward P/E ratio below 20.
- Cautiously Optimistic Outlook: While this strategy may alleviate some investor concerns, Meta must still stand out in a competitive market, and successfully selling computing power to establish a strong revenue engine will be crucial for its future.
See More
SpaceX IPO Frenzy Contrasts with Bond Market Skepticism
- IPO Enthusiasm: SpaceX's IPO was oversubscribed by four times due to strong institutional and retail demand, opening at $150 and peaking at $225, currently trading around $157, which gives it a market cap exceeding $2 trillion, reflecting investor optimism about future profitability.
- Bond Market Reaction: Despite the stock market's strong performance, SpaceX's bonds are rated BB, trading at an average premium of 1.62 percentage points, indicating high credit risk, with a 4.22% default rate that significantly exceeds the historical rates of investment-grade bonds, highlighting concerns about its financial health.
- Profitability Challenges: SpaceX reported a total loss of $4.9 billion last year, with its Starlink service generating about 60% of $18.7 billion in revenue, while its AI division and social media platform X (formerly Twitter) incurred an operating loss of $6.4 billion, indicating significant profitability hurdles.
- Future Vision and Risks: The company's registration document outlines ambitious goals like making life multiplanetary and establishing bases on the Moon, which inspire investors; however, the cautious stance of the bond market suggests a lack of confidence in achieving these objectives, urging investors to carefully assess potential risks.
See More
