SpaceX Set to Go Public with $1.5 Trillion Valuation
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 5 days ago
0mins
Source: Fool
- Massive Market Potential: SpaceX claims a total addressable market (TAM) of $28.5 trillion, with artificial intelligence representing a $26.5 trillion opportunity, indicating significant growth potential, particularly as investments in AI are expected to drive market share expansion.
- Surging R&D Expenses: SpaceX's research and development spending soared by 150% last year to $8.6 billion, becoming the company's largest expense after cost of revenue in 2025, underscoring its commitment to technological innovation and competitive positioning in the market.
- Accumulated Losses Risk: As of the end of March, SpaceX reported an accumulated deficit of $41.3 billion, highlighting financial pressures since inception; despite generating $4.7 billion in revenue in Q1 2026, the company faced a net loss of $4.3 billion, necessitating careful risk assessment by investors.
- Valuation Concerns: With a potential valuation of $1.5 trillion, early investors may encounter high premiums upon the stock's debut, and given the company's lack of profitability, rushing to buy could lead to future losses, warranting a cautious approach.
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Analyst Views on TSLA
Wall Street analysts forecast TSLA stock price to fall
30 Analyst Rating
12 Buy
11 Hold
7 Sell
Hold
Current: 442.100
Low
25.28
Averages
401.93
High
600.00
Current: 442.100
Low
25.28
Averages
401.93
High
600.00
About TSLA
Tesla, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, sells and leases high-performance fully electric vehicles and energy generation and storage systems, and offers services related to its products. Its segments include automotive, and energy generation and storage. The automotive segment includes the design, development, manufacturing, sales and leasing of high-performance fully electric vehicles, and sales of automotive regulatory credits. It also includes sales of used vehicles, non-warranty maintenance services and collisions, part sales, paid supercharging, insurance services revenue and retail merchandise sales. The energy generation and storage segment include the design, manufacture, installation, sales and leasing of solar energy generation and energy storage products and related services and sales of solar energy systems incentives. Its consumer vehicles include the Model 3, Y, S, X and Cybertruck. Its lithium-ion battery energy storage products include Powerwall and Megapack.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Record IPO: SpaceX is expected to go public in June, aiming to raise approximately $75 billion, which would make it the largest IPO in history with a valuation nearing $2 trillion, potentially placing it among the top ten most valuable companies globally.
- Space Achievements: Last year, SpaceX launched 650 rockets, establishing itself as the world's largest rocket launcher, and successfully executed 11 out of 12 National Security Space Launch missions, showcasing its leadership in the aerospace sector.
- Starlink Profitability: The Starlink segment is SpaceX's most developed and only profitable area, generating $11.4 billion in revenue and $4.4 billion in operating income last year, with plans to launch a more powerful satellite that will enhance downlink capacity by 20 times, further solidifying its market position.
- AI Investment Outlook: SpaceX invested $13 billion in artificial intelligence, despite a $6.4 billion loss in the AI sector last year, with management identifying a $26.5 trillion total addressable market primarily from enterprise applications, reflecting strong confidence in future growth opportunities.
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- Market Potential Assessment: SpaceX estimates that of its $28.5 trillion total addressable market, only $1.6 trillion pertains to connectivity, while the AI market represents a substantial $26.5 trillion, indicating that the primary growth driver for the company lies in the AI sector.
- Investment Risk Warning: Despite the potential IPO valuation of $1.5 trillion, SpaceX's core business remains focused on internet access, and current losses exceed profits, prompting investors to carefully evaluate the associated risks and returns.
- Strategic Recommendation: Given SpaceX's high valuation and insufficient profitability, it is advisable for investors to adopt a wait-and-see approach post-IPO, seeking a more attractive entry point to mitigate investment risks.
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- Improved Investor Sentiment: With the improvement in market sentiment, investor interest in high-risk assets has increased, potentially leading to a shift of funds from the bond market to the stock market, enhancing the upward momentum of equities.
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- Revenue and Market Potential: Last year, SpaceX generated $4.1 billion in revenue despite an operating loss of $657 million, with management estimating a total addressable market (TAM) of $370 billion for its business, indicating significant growth potential.
- Starlink Business Leadership: Starlink, SpaceX's most developed and only profitable segment, generated $11.4 billion in revenue last year with $4.4 billion in operating income, operating 9,600 low-Earth satellites, which account for 75% of all active maneuverable satellites, and is set to launch a more powerful satellite to increase downlink capacity by 20 times.
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See More
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- Record IPO: SpaceX is expected to go public in June, aiming to raise approximately $75 billion, which would make it the largest IPO in history with a valuation nearing $2 trillion, potentially placing it among the top ten most valuable companies globally.
- Space Achievements: Last year, SpaceX launched 650 rockets, establishing itself as the world's largest rocket launcher, and successfully executed 11 out of 12 National Security Space Launch missions, showcasing its leadership in the aerospace sector.
- Starlink Profitability: The Starlink segment is SpaceX's most developed and only profitable area, generating $11.4 billion in revenue and $4.4 billion in operating income last year, with plans to launch a more powerful satellite that will enhance downlink capacity by 20 times, further solidifying its market position.
- AI Investment Outlook: SpaceX invested $13 billion in artificial intelligence, despite a $6.4 billion loss in the AI sector last year, with management identifying a $26.5 trillion total addressable market primarily from enterprise applications, reflecting strong confidence in future growth opportunities.
See More
Analysis of SpaceX IPO Prospects and Investment Recommendations
- Profit Growth Highlight: Starlink, as the only profitable division of SpaceX, generated $11.4 billion in revenue in 2025, accounting for 61% of total company revenue, reflecting strong demand and profitability in the global high-speed internet market with a 50% year-over-year increase.
- Market Potential Assessment: SpaceX estimates that of its $28.5 trillion total addressable market, only $1.6 trillion pertains to connectivity, while the AI market represents a substantial $26.5 trillion, indicating that the primary growth driver for the company lies in the AI sector.
- Investment Risk Warning: Despite the potential IPO valuation of $1.5 trillion, SpaceX's core business remains focused on internet access, and current losses exceed profits, prompting investors to carefully evaluate the associated risks and returns.
- Strategic Recommendation: Given SpaceX's high valuation and insufficient profitability, it is advisable for investors to adopt a wait-and-see approach post-IPO, seeking a more attractive entry point to mitigate investment risks.
See More
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- Market Highs: The stock market reached new highs driven by optimistic expectations surrounding an Iran deal, reflecting investor confidence in future economic recovery, which may attract more capital inflows into the market.
- Tech Giants Performance: Nvidia and Tesla, among five trillion-dollar companies nearing buy points, indicate potential investment opportunities in these tech stocks as the market rebounds, further propelling overall market gains.
- Improved Investor Sentiment: With the improvement in market sentiment, investor interest in high-risk assets has increased, potentially leading to a shift of funds from the bond market to the stock market, enhancing the upward momentum of equities.
- Economic Recovery Expectations: The optimism surrounding the Iran deal not only boosts stock market performance but may also promote recovery in related sectors, particularly in energy and technology, further driving economic growth.
See More
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- Class-Action Lawsuit Initiated: A group of 10 Chinese car owners has filed a class-action lawsuit against Tesla in the Daxing District People's Court, seeking over 3.95 million yuan (approximately $583,000) in damages, alleging fraudulent marketing of its Full Self-Driving feature, which has impacted consumer purchasing decisions.
- Core Functionality Dispute: The lawsuit centers on whether Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) feature delivers the advertised 'fully autonomous driving capability,' with plaintiffs claiming that Tesla knowingly misled them since the feature was not approved by Chinese regulators.
- Tesla's Response: Tesla asserts that while the FSD feature is operational, several upcoming functionalities are still under development, and the company has not issued an official statement regarding the lawsuit, indicating a cautious approach to legal challenges.
- Market Impact Assessment: This lawsuit could negatively affect Tesla's brand image and market trust, particularly in the crucial Chinese market, potentially leading to diminished consumer confidence in its products and impacting future sales.
See More
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- Technological Application Outlook: Founded in 2024, Foundation Future Industries focuses on developing dual-use humanoid robots for military and industrial applications, with plans to conduct frontline testing with the U.S. military within the next 18 months, showcasing the technology's potential in hazardous environments.
- Ukraine Testing Case: The company has sent two Phantom MK-1 robots to Ukraine for pilot testing, marking the first known deployment of humanoid robots in a combat theater, aimed at enhancing logistics efficiency and reducing soldiers' exposure to danger.
- Government Contract Support: Foundation has secured $24 million in government research contracts focusing on inspection, logistics, and weapons handling, indicating a close collaboration with the U.S. Department of Defense that could facilitate the scaling of its technology.
- Clear Strategic Goals: CEO Sankaet Pathak stated that Foundation aims to scale production to thousands of units this year and is committed to developing the Phantom 2 robot with “superhuman abilities” to meet future military demands, further solidifying its market position.
See More
SpaceX Plans Record IPO with Nearly $2 Trillion Valuation
- IPO Outlook: SpaceX is expected to go public in June, aiming to raise approximately $75 billion, which would make it the largest IPO in history with a projected valuation nearing $2 trillion, potentially placing it among the top ten companies globally.
- Revenue and Market Potential: Last year, SpaceX generated $4.1 billion in revenue despite an operating loss of $657 million, with management estimating a total addressable market (TAM) of $370 billion for its business, indicating significant growth potential.
- Starlink Business Leadership: Starlink, SpaceX's most developed and only profitable segment, generated $11.4 billion in revenue last year with $4.4 billion in operating income, operating 9,600 low-Earth satellites, which account for 75% of all active maneuverable satellites, and is set to launch a more powerful satellite to increase downlink capacity by 20 times.
- AI Investment and Market Competition: SpaceX invested $13 billion in AI last year, despite a $6.4 billion operating loss in its AI business, with management identifying a $26.5 trillion market opportunity in enterprise applications, highlighting its strategic positioning in future technology sectors.
See More
