RBC Capital Reaffirms Outperform Rating for Ollie's Bargain Outlet and Increases Price Target to $144
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Aug 18 2025
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Should l Buy OLLI?
Source: Benzinga
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Analyst Views on OLLI
Wall Street analysts forecast OLLI stock price to rise
13 Analyst Rating
10 Buy
3 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 95.230
Low
120.00
Averages
144.46
High
162.00
Current: 95.230
Low
120.00
Averages
144.46
High
162.00
About OLLI
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. operates as a retailer of closeout merchandise and excess inventory. The Company and its subsidiaries principally buys overproduced, overstocked, and closeout merchandise from manufacturers, wholesalers, distributors, brokers, and other retailers. In addition, it augments its name-brand closeout deals with private label products. It offers customers a selection of brand name products, including housewares, bed and bath, food, floor coverings, health and beauty aids, books and stationery, toys, and electronics. The Company operates over 575 stores in 31 states. The Company's retail locations are located in Alabama, Arkansas, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, and West Virginia.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Tariff Volatility Impacts Retail Investing
- Ollie's Growth Amid Disruption: Ollie's Bargain Outlet opened a record 86 new stores in fiscal 2025, with Q4 net sales increasing 17% year-over-year to approximately $779 million, demonstrating strong performance amid tariff disruptions, as management stated, 'Tariffs are just another form of disruption, and we benefit from it.'
- Acquisition Opportunities: Ollie's acquired 63 former Big Lots locations through bankruptcy auctions, securing prime real estate in value-retail corridors, with a long-term goal of expanding store count to over 1,300 locations, nearly doubling its current footprint, showcasing its ambitious growth strategy.
- Five Below's Adaptability: Despite sourcing 60% of its products from China, Five Below achieved a 15.4% comparable sales increase and a 24.3% revenue growth to $1.73 billion in Q4 fiscal 2025, reflecting its ability to navigate tariff pressures effectively.
- Future Outlook: Five Below's management guided for fiscal 2026 sales between $5.20 billion and $5.30 billion, with adjusted EPS expected between $7.74 and $8.25, indicating strong market adaptability and growth potential despite ongoing tariff costs.
See More
Jefferies Upgrades Ollie's to Buy, Highlights Competitive Edge
- Rating Upgrade: Jefferies upgraded Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings (OLLI) from Hold to Buy, with analyst Randal Konik noting that investors are underestimating the scale advantages that are becoming evident, indicating improved fundamentals for the company.
- Market Competitive Edge: Ollie's is currently the only closeout retailer with true national reach and distribution, boasting approximately 645 stores compared to about 159 for the next closest competitor, highlighting its dominance in mixed and clearance inventory.
- Valuation Appeal: Despite improved fundamentals, Ollie's is trading near the low end of its historical range, with a P/E discount of 6X to 7X compared to Five Below (FIVE), indicating significant investment appeal.
- Price Potential: Jefferies set a price target of $130 for Ollie's, representing over 40% upside potential, and the stock rose 1.8% to $92.95 in Thursday morning trading, reflecting market confidence in its future performance.
See More
Five Below's Impressive Earnings Prompt Wall Street to Adjust Targets Upward
Strong Earnings Report: Five Below's stock surged over 10% following a robust Q4 2025 earnings report, despite broader market pressures, indicating strong growth and resilience in its supply chain.
Targeting Younger Consumers: The company is focusing on attracting Gen Alpha and Gen Z shoppers while also appealing to millennial moms, which has contributed to impressive results across all income levels.
Impact of Tariffs: Five Below has successfully navigated the challenges posed by tariffs, which significantly affected its operations in 2025, but management expects a reduced impact in 2026.
Investor Sentiment: Institutional buying has increased, with analysts upgrading their price targets for Five Below, reflecting confidence in the company's future performance and potential for continued growth.
See More
US Stocks Decline Amid Soaring Oil Prices
- Market Weakness: The S&P 500 fell by 0.61% to 6,632.19, indicating a bearish sentiment as surging oil prices exert pressure on equities, leading investors to adopt a cautious outlook on future market performance.
- Energy Sector Resilience: Despite the overall market decline, energy and defensive sectors outperformed, suggesting that investors are seeking safe havens amid uncertainty, which could lead to a shift in capital towards these relatively secure investments.
- Stock Movements: Ollie’s Bargain Outlet gained 4.14% following its Q4 earnings report, while Adobe dropped 7.58% due to CEO resignation news, reflecting the direct impact of corporate governance changes on stock prices.
- Declining Consumer Confidence: Consumer sentiment hit a three-month low, indicating rising concerns over increasing energy and gasoline prices, which may affect future consumer spending and economic growth expectations.
See More
Surging Oil Prices Pressure Stock Market
- Market Weakness: The S&P 500 fell 0.61% to 6,632.19, marking its third consecutive week of losses, reflecting investor concerns over rising oil prices, particularly impacting banks and consumer cyclicals.
- Energy Stocks Outperform: Despite the overall market decline, energy and defensive sectors showed resilience, indicating a potential shift in investor focus towards safer assets amid uncertainty, which could lead to capital inflows into these areas.
- Earnings Report Impact: Ollie’s Bargain Outlet gained following its Q4 earnings report, while Adobe's stock dropped 7.58% after the announcement of CEO Shantanu Narayen's resignation, highlighting market sensitivity to corporate governance issues.
- Declining Consumer Sentiment: Data revealed consumer sentiment hit a three-month low, reflecting growing concerns over rising energy and gasoline prices, which may adversely affect future consumer spending and economic growth expectations.
See More
Iran War Disrupts Global Supply Chain and Retail Prices
- Supply Chain Disruption: Iran's effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has significantly disrupted the global supply chain, affecting a range of goods from fertilizers to fuels, which may lead to rising retail prices, particularly for food items.
- Declining Consumer Confidence: The war has negatively impacted consumer confidence; although the latest consumer price index met expectations, rising gas prices are likely to suppress discretionary spending, further affecting retailers' sales.
- Retailer Strategies: Retailers facing input cost and demand pressures may raise prices to offset declining unit sales, especially for discretionary retailers like Target and Five Below, which are more vulnerable to shifts in consumer spending.
- Value Retailers Benefit: In the current economic climate, value retailers such as Walmart and Kroger may find it easier to navigate challenges as consumers increasingly seek value-priced items amidst rising costs.
See More
Tariff Volatility Impacts Retail Investing
- Ollie's Growth Amid Disruption: Ollie's Bargain Outlet opened a record 86 new stores in fiscal 2025, with Q4 net sales increasing 17% year-over-year to approximately $779 million, demonstrating strong performance amid tariff disruptions, as management stated, 'Tariffs are just another form of disruption, and we benefit from it.'
- Acquisition Opportunities: Ollie's acquired 63 former Big Lots locations through bankruptcy auctions, securing prime real estate in value-retail corridors, with a long-term goal of expanding store count to over 1,300 locations, nearly doubling its current footprint, showcasing its ambitious growth strategy.
- Five Below's Adaptability: Despite sourcing 60% of its products from China, Five Below achieved a 15.4% comparable sales increase and a 24.3% revenue growth to $1.73 billion in Q4 fiscal 2025, reflecting its ability to navigate tariff pressures effectively.
- Future Outlook: Five Below's management guided for fiscal 2026 sales between $5.20 billion and $5.30 billion, with adjusted EPS expected between $7.74 and $8.25, indicating strong market adaptability and growth potential despite ongoing tariff costs.
See More
Jefferies Upgrades Ollie's to Buy, Highlights Competitive Edge
- Rating Upgrade: Jefferies upgraded Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings (OLLI) from Hold to Buy, with analyst Randal Konik noting that investors are underestimating the scale advantages that are becoming evident, indicating improved fundamentals for the company.
- Market Competitive Edge: Ollie's is currently the only closeout retailer with true national reach and distribution, boasting approximately 645 stores compared to about 159 for the next closest competitor, highlighting its dominance in mixed and clearance inventory.
- Valuation Appeal: Despite improved fundamentals, Ollie's is trading near the low end of its historical range, with a P/E discount of 6X to 7X compared to Five Below (FIVE), indicating significant investment appeal.
- Price Potential: Jefferies set a price target of $130 for Ollie's, representing over 40% upside potential, and the stock rose 1.8% to $92.95 in Thursday morning trading, reflecting market confidence in its future performance.
See More
Five Below's Impressive Earnings Prompt Wall Street to Adjust Targets Upward
Strong Earnings Report: Five Below's stock surged over 10% following a robust Q4 2025 earnings report, despite broader market pressures, indicating strong growth and resilience in its supply chain.
Targeting Younger Consumers: The company is focusing on attracting Gen Alpha and Gen Z shoppers while also appealing to millennial moms, which has contributed to impressive results across all income levels.
Impact of Tariffs: Five Below has successfully navigated the challenges posed by tariffs, which significantly affected its operations in 2025, but management expects a reduced impact in 2026.
Investor Sentiment: Institutional buying has increased, with analysts upgrading their price targets for Five Below, reflecting confidence in the company's future performance and potential for continued growth.
See More
US Stocks Decline Amid Soaring Oil Prices
- Market Weakness: The S&P 500 fell by 0.61% to 6,632.19, indicating a bearish sentiment as surging oil prices exert pressure on equities, leading investors to adopt a cautious outlook on future market performance.
- Energy Sector Resilience: Despite the overall market decline, energy and defensive sectors outperformed, suggesting that investors are seeking safe havens amid uncertainty, which could lead to a shift in capital towards these relatively secure investments.
- Stock Movements: Ollie’s Bargain Outlet gained 4.14% following its Q4 earnings report, while Adobe dropped 7.58% due to CEO resignation news, reflecting the direct impact of corporate governance changes on stock prices.
- Declining Consumer Confidence: Consumer sentiment hit a three-month low, indicating rising concerns over increasing energy and gasoline prices, which may affect future consumer spending and economic growth expectations.
See More
Surging Oil Prices Pressure Stock Market
- Market Weakness: The S&P 500 fell 0.61% to 6,632.19, marking its third consecutive week of losses, reflecting investor concerns over rising oil prices, particularly impacting banks and consumer cyclicals.
- Energy Stocks Outperform: Despite the overall market decline, energy and defensive sectors showed resilience, indicating a potential shift in investor focus towards safer assets amid uncertainty, which could lead to capital inflows into these areas.
- Earnings Report Impact: Ollie’s Bargain Outlet gained following its Q4 earnings report, while Adobe's stock dropped 7.58% after the announcement of CEO Shantanu Narayen's resignation, highlighting market sensitivity to corporate governance issues.
- Declining Consumer Sentiment: Data revealed consumer sentiment hit a three-month low, reflecting growing concerns over rising energy and gasoline prices, which may adversely affect future consumer spending and economic growth expectations.
See More
Iran War Disrupts Global Supply Chain and Retail Prices
- Supply Chain Disruption: Iran's effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has significantly disrupted the global supply chain, affecting a range of goods from fertilizers to fuels, which may lead to rising retail prices, particularly for food items.
- Declining Consumer Confidence: The war has negatively impacted consumer confidence; although the latest consumer price index met expectations, rising gas prices are likely to suppress discretionary spending, further affecting retailers' sales.
- Retailer Strategies: Retailers facing input cost and demand pressures may raise prices to offset declining unit sales, especially for discretionary retailers like Target and Five Below, which are more vulnerable to shifts in consumer spending.
- Value Retailers Benefit: In the current economic climate, value retailers such as Walmart and Kroger may find it easier to navigate challenges as consumers increasingly seek value-priced items amidst rising costs.
See More
