Private Credit Faces AI Challenges Amid SaaSpocalypse
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jun 10 2026
0mins
Source: CNBC
- Market Dynamics Shift: Ares co-president Blair Jacobsen noted that AI's impact is causing a bifurcation among software companies, with a rebound of 21% in software stocks in May after February's tech sell-off, indicating a recovering market confidence in the software sector.
- Identifying Investment Opportunities: Ares has invested in software for over 15 years, focusing on companies providing mission-critical services, particularly in regulated industries where the cost of failure is high, thus offering a protective layer for robust software businesses despite AI disruptions.
- Changes in Credit Market: Kevin Marchetti from Man Group stated that private credit exposure in the software sector has grown to 20%-30% over the past five years, with AI's rise testing the software credit thesis, tightening credit conditions, and lowering loan-to-value ratios, creating an attractive dynamic for investors.
- Industry Outlook: HarbourVest Partners CEO John Toomey believes the software sector is in the early stages of AI adoption, where some companies face significant challenges, while others can adapt and leverage AI opportunities to enhance efficiency and productivity, leading to a K-shaped outcome.
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Analyst Views on ARES
Wall Street analysts forecast ARES stock price to rise
10 Analyst Rating
8 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 128.350
Low
155.00
Averages
191.40
High
223.00
Current: 128.350
Low
155.00
Averages
191.40
High
223.00
About ARES
Ares Management Corporation is an alternative investment manager offering clients complementary primary and secondary investment solutions across various asset classes. Its segments include Credit Group, Private Equity Group, Real Assets Group, Secondaries Group, and Other. The Credit Group segment manages credit strategies across the liquid and illiquid spectrum, including liquid credit, alternative credit, direct lending and APAC credit. The Private Equity Group segment categorizes its investment strategies as corporate private equity, special opportunities and APAC private equity. The Real Assets Group segment manages comprehensive equity and debt strategies across real estate and infrastructure investments. The Secondaries Group segment invests in secondary markets across a range of alternative asset class strategies, including private equity, real estate, infrastructure and credit. It has operations across North America, South America, Europe, Asia Pacific and the Middle East.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Asset Management Scale: As of March 31, 2026, Ares' Infrastructure Debt business manages over $13 billion in assets, supporting defensive infrastructure assets across sectors like digital infrastructure and energy, showcasing its strong competitive position in the market.
- Strategic Outlook: Ares Management's global platform has over $644 billion in assets under management, reflecting its leadership across multiple asset classes, and it will continue to meet the growing demand in the infrastructure sector through flexible capital solutions.
See More
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- High Dividend Appeal: Business development companies like Ares Capital and Main Street Capital offer dividend yields exceeding 10%, attracting investor interest; however, this comes with high-risk lending models that depend on their ability to manage capital needs of mid-sized firms.
- Loan Rate Risks: Ares Capital's weighted average interest rate on its loan portfolio stands at 10.3%, mirroring Main Street Capital, indicating a high-risk lending environment for mid-sized companies, where elevated rates may lead to borrower defaults, impacting company earnings.
- Market Demand Fluctuations: During economic downturns, mid-sized firms may curtail borrowing, making it challenging for business development companies to expand their income-generating loan portfolios, which could affect their dividend payment capabilities and market attractiveness.
- Investor Confidence Impact: While demand for funding from business development companies remains, investor concerns about borrowers' repayment abilities may suppress investments, leading some firms like Gladstone Capital and Goldman Sachs BDC to lower their per-share dividends, reflecting the challenges of the current market environment.
See More
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- Loan Rate Risks: Ares Capital's weighted average interest rate stands at 10.3%, matching that of Main Street Capital, indicating that the risk of borrower defaults may rise amid economic uncertainty, potentially impacting the stability of BDC earnings.
- Market Demand Fluctuations: In downturns, mid-sized companies may curtail borrowing, limiting BDCs' income sources; although they can convert interest payments into dividends, their ability to expand income-generating loans is constrained.
- Investor Confidence Impact: While demand for BDC funding remains healthy, investor concerns about borrowers' repayment capabilities may hinder BDCs' ability to raise capital, leading some companies like Gladstone Capital and Goldman Sachs BDC to lower their per-share payouts, reflecting challenges in the current market environment.
See More
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- Interest Rate Outlook Favoring Private Credit: Ostian noted that while rates may remain unchanged, there is still a chance of a hike by year-end, which could provide a significant tailwind for private credit investments, enhancing their market appeal.
- Hedging Against Tech Sector Volatility: By increasing her position in Ares while trimming AI-related holdings, Ostian strategically positions her portfolio to hedge against potential volatility in the technology sector, highlighting the importance of diversification.
- Concerns Over Industry Transparency: While Ostian remains optimistic about Ares, analyst Jack Bowman expressed concerns regarding the transparency and complex financial structures of the private credit industry, advising investors to focus on general partners rather than limited partner funds to mitigate risks.
See More
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- Project Overview: Foundry Commercial has announced the start of construction for Parkside Commerce Center, an 809,141-square-foot Class-A industrial development located on Silicon Drive in Durham, North Carolina, designed to cater to advanced manufacturing and biomanufacturing sectors.
- Delivery Schedule: The project will be delivered in two phases, with Phase I expected in Q4 2027, featuring two rear load facilities totaling 521,548 square feet with 36-foot clear heights, while Phase II will include two buildings with 32-foot clear heights.
- Market Demand: The Class A vacancy rate in the RTP/I-40 submarket is near historic lows, and Parkside Commerce Center will provide much-needed options that combine prime location, functionality, and scalability to meet the needs of tenants across the RDU market.
- Partnership Dynamics: Hines and Ares co-own the project, with Foundry Commercial retained as the exclusive leasing team, showcasing their strong influence and resource integration capabilities in the national market.
See More
Construction Begins on New Industrial Park
- Project Overview: Foundry Commercial has announced the start of construction at Parkside Commerce Center in Durham, North Carolina, which includes four buildings totaling 809,141 square feet, designed to meet the needs of advanced manufacturing and biomanufacturing sectors.
- Strategic Location: The development is strategically positioned at the intersection of I-40, I-540, Hwy 147, and the I-85 corridor, providing convenient access that is expected to attract more businesses and drive regional economic growth.
- Phased Delivery: The project will be delivered in two phases, with Phase I expected to be completed in Q4 2027, featuring two buildings totaling 521,548 square feet with 36-foot clear heights, catering to high-demand warehousing and distribution needs.
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See More
