Prediction Markets Surge as Genius Sports Poised for Growth
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 4 days ago
0mins
Should l Buy GENI?
Source: Fool
- Market Volume Milestone: Polymarket recorded a monthly trading volume of $10.57 billion in March 2026, marking the first time it surpassed the $10 billion threshold, indicating rapid growth in prediction markets that may attract more investor interest.
- Significant Quarterly Growth: The total trading volume for Polymarket in Q1 reached $26.2 billion, up over 90% from the previous quarter, suggesting strong market demand that could lead to increased institutional participation.
- Genius Sports' Market Position: Genius Sports generated $669.5 million in revenue in 2025, a 31% year-over-year increase, and projects organic revenue of $810 million to $820 million in 2026, reflecting robust performance and demand in the sports data sector.
- Enhanced Regulatory Support: The Commodity Futures Trading Commission's backing of Polymarket signals the legitimacy of official sports data in event markets, providing a favorable regulatory environment for Genius Sports that could further drive its business growth.
Trade with 70% Backtested Accuracy
Stop guessing "Should I Buy GENI?" and start using high-conviction signals backed by rigorous historical data.
Sign up today to access powerful investing tools and make smarter, data-driven decisions.
Analyst Views on GENI
Wall Street analysts forecast GENI stock price to rise
13 Analyst Rating
12 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 4.780
Low
13.00
Averages
16.00
High
20.00
Current: 4.780
Low
13.00
Averages
16.00
High
20.00
About GENI
Genius Sports Limited is the official data, technology and broadcast partner that powers the ecosystem connecting sports, betting and media. It operates through one segment, which consists of providing access to Betting Content Technology, Content and Services; Media Technology Content and Services; and Sports Technology and Services. It builds and supplies technology and services that allow sports leagues to collect, analyze and monetize their data with added tools to deepen fan engagement. It provides sports leagues with bespoke monitoring technology and education services to help protect their competitions and athletes from the threats of match fixing and betting-related corruption. It offers official data, outsourced bookmaking, trading/risk management services and live audio-visual game content that is derived from its streaming partnerships with sports leagues. Its offerings include Live sports data, Pre-game and in-game odds feeds, and BetVision, among others.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Genius Sports: A Hidden Gem in Digital Betting Markets
- Significant Market Potential: Genius Sports serves as the raw data layer for sports leagues and betting markets, poised to benefit from the booming prediction markets, particularly as startups like Kalshi and Polymarket experience explosive trading volume, which could translate into substantial revenue growth for the company.
- Acquisition Fuels Growth: The recent $1.2 billion acquisition of Legends not only enables Genius to sell data to sportsbooks but also generates additional revenue through customer sign-ups via Legends' websites, with projected revenue reaching $1.1 billion and over $300 million in EBITDA by 2026.
- Distinct Competitive Advantage: Genius Sports has established unique partnerships with major sports leagues, becoming the sole data provider, which positions the company favorably in the market, allowing it to sell data to multiple third parties and diversify its revenue streams.
- Advertising Segment Growth: The company's media segment leverages its data to support advertising, with revenue growing 37% year-over-year to $144.5 million, indicating strong performance in the digital advertising market and promising future growth potential.
See More
Genius Sports (GENI) Q1 2026 Earnings Transcript
See More
Genius Sports: A Hidden Gem in Digital Betting Markets
- Market Growth Potential: Genius Sports partners with major sports leagues to provide real-time data transmission, achieving $471.5 million in betting technology revenue last year, a 33% year-over-year increase, showcasing its competitive edge in the rapidly growing mobile betting market.
- Acquisition Expansion: Recently, Genius closed a $1.2 billion acquisition of Legends, which not only enhances its data sales capabilities but also generates additional revenue through customer sign-ups on Legends' websites, expected to drive future revenue growth.
- Profitability Outlook: Genius anticipates revenue reaching $1.1 billion by 2026, with adjusted EBITDA exceeding $300 million, making its earnings relatively cheap compared to a market cap of $1.13 billion, attracting investor interest.
- Market Opportunities: Although Kalshi and Polymarket have not yet received full regulatory approval, once permitted, Genius Sports stands to benefit from the growth of these prediction markets, further solidifying its leadership position in the digital betting space.
See More
Genius Sports: A Leader in the Sports Betting Market
- Market Growth Potential: The sports betting market has seen significant growth in recent years, and Genius Sports, as a data provider, is expected to benefit from emerging prediction markets, particularly after regulatory approval for platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, which could further drive revenue growth.
- Strong Revenue Growth: Genius Sports' betting technology segment achieved a 33% year-over-year growth in 2025, reaching $472 million in revenue, demonstrating its dominant position in the rapidly evolving betting market while contributing the majority of the company's overall sales.
- Acquisition Strategy: The company acquired Legends for $1.2 billion, aiming to penetrate the sports betting industry from two different angles, profiting not only from data sales but also from customer acquisition fees, thereby enhancing its competitive edge in the market.
- Investment Appeal: Wall Street's average price target for Genius Sports is $12.76, which is 200% above the current price, indicating a positive market outlook for its future growth, especially against the backdrop of the ongoing expansion in the betting market.
See More
Genius Sports Poised for Growth in Data Sales
- Market Growth Potential: Genius Sports is positioned as a key provider of real-time data through partnerships with major sports leagues, with betting technology revenue projected to grow 33% year-over-year to $472 million in 2025, highlighting its critical role in the expanding sports betting market.
- Acquisition Impact: The company recently acquired Legends for $1.2 billion, enhancing its customer acquisition capabilities in the sports betting sector, with combined revenue expected to reach $1.1 billion in 2025 and adjusted EBITDA between $320 million and $330 million, strengthening its competitive edge.
- Prediction Market Opportunities: With the emergence of prediction markets like Kalshi, Genius Sports' advantage in providing sports data positions it favorably in this legal gray area, and despite uncertainties, the demand for its data services is expected to grow steadily.
- Investor Attention: Currently trading at $4.38, significantly below Wall Street's average price target of $12.76, Genius Sports' undervaluation and market demand make it a focal point for investors looking for growth opportunities.
See More
Genius Sports Set to Announce Q1 Earnings on May 7
- Earnings Announcement: Genius Sports (GENI) is set to release its Q1 earnings on May 7 before market open, with a consensus EPS estimate of $0.01, reflecting a significant year-over-year increase of 133.3%, indicating potential improvements in profitability.
- Revenue Expectations: The anticipated revenue for Q1 stands at $170.98 million, representing an 18.7% year-over-year growth, showcasing the company's growth potential despite facing fragile economic conditions.
- Performance Beat Record: Over the past year, Genius Sports has beaten EPS estimates 25% of the time while achieving a 100% beat rate on revenue estimates, demonstrating stability in revenue management amidst market fluctuations.
- Estimate Revision Trends: In the last three months, EPS estimates have seen no upward revisions and one downward revision, while revenue estimates experienced two upward revisions and eight downward revisions, reflecting a cautious market sentiment regarding the company's future performance.
See More
Genius Sports: A Hidden Gem in Digital Betting Markets
- Significant Market Potential: Genius Sports serves as the raw data layer for sports leagues and betting markets, poised to benefit from the booming prediction markets, particularly as startups like Kalshi and Polymarket experience explosive trading volume, which could translate into substantial revenue growth for the company.
- Acquisition Fuels Growth: The recent $1.2 billion acquisition of Legends not only enables Genius to sell data to sportsbooks but also generates additional revenue through customer sign-ups via Legends' websites, with projected revenue reaching $1.1 billion and over $300 million in EBITDA by 2026.
- Distinct Competitive Advantage: Genius Sports has established unique partnerships with major sports leagues, becoming the sole data provider, which positions the company favorably in the market, allowing it to sell data to multiple third parties and diversify its revenue streams.
- Advertising Segment Growth: The company's media segment leverages its data to support advertising, with revenue growing 37% year-over-year to $144.5 million, indicating strong performance in the digital advertising market and promising future growth potential.
See More
Genius Sports (GENI) Q1 2026 Earnings Transcript
See More
Genius Sports: A Hidden Gem in Digital Betting Markets
- Market Growth Potential: Genius Sports partners with major sports leagues to provide real-time data transmission, achieving $471.5 million in betting technology revenue last year, a 33% year-over-year increase, showcasing its competitive edge in the rapidly growing mobile betting market.
- Acquisition Expansion: Recently, Genius closed a $1.2 billion acquisition of Legends, which not only enhances its data sales capabilities but also generates additional revenue through customer sign-ups on Legends' websites, expected to drive future revenue growth.
- Profitability Outlook: Genius anticipates revenue reaching $1.1 billion by 2026, with adjusted EBITDA exceeding $300 million, making its earnings relatively cheap compared to a market cap of $1.13 billion, attracting investor interest.
- Market Opportunities: Although Kalshi and Polymarket have not yet received full regulatory approval, once permitted, Genius Sports stands to benefit from the growth of these prediction markets, further solidifying its leadership position in the digital betting space.
See More
Genius Sports: A Leader in the Sports Betting Market
- Market Growth Potential: The sports betting market has seen significant growth in recent years, and Genius Sports, as a data provider, is expected to benefit from emerging prediction markets, particularly after regulatory approval for platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, which could further drive revenue growth.
- Strong Revenue Growth: Genius Sports' betting technology segment achieved a 33% year-over-year growth in 2025, reaching $472 million in revenue, demonstrating its dominant position in the rapidly evolving betting market while contributing the majority of the company's overall sales.
- Acquisition Strategy: The company acquired Legends for $1.2 billion, aiming to penetrate the sports betting industry from two different angles, profiting not only from data sales but also from customer acquisition fees, thereby enhancing its competitive edge in the market.
- Investment Appeal: Wall Street's average price target for Genius Sports is $12.76, which is 200% above the current price, indicating a positive market outlook for its future growth, especially against the backdrop of the ongoing expansion in the betting market.
See More
Genius Sports Poised for Growth in Data Sales
- Market Growth Potential: Genius Sports is positioned as a key provider of real-time data through partnerships with major sports leagues, with betting technology revenue projected to grow 33% year-over-year to $472 million in 2025, highlighting its critical role in the expanding sports betting market.
- Acquisition Impact: The company recently acquired Legends for $1.2 billion, enhancing its customer acquisition capabilities in the sports betting sector, with combined revenue expected to reach $1.1 billion in 2025 and adjusted EBITDA between $320 million and $330 million, strengthening its competitive edge.
- Prediction Market Opportunities: With the emergence of prediction markets like Kalshi, Genius Sports' advantage in providing sports data positions it favorably in this legal gray area, and despite uncertainties, the demand for its data services is expected to grow steadily.
- Investor Attention: Currently trading at $4.38, significantly below Wall Street's average price target of $12.76, Genius Sports' undervaluation and market demand make it a focal point for investors looking for growth opportunities.
See More
Genius Sports Set to Announce Q1 Earnings on May 7
- Earnings Announcement: Genius Sports (GENI) is set to release its Q1 earnings on May 7 before market open, with a consensus EPS estimate of $0.01, reflecting a significant year-over-year increase of 133.3%, indicating potential improvements in profitability.
- Revenue Expectations: The anticipated revenue for Q1 stands at $170.98 million, representing an 18.7% year-over-year growth, showcasing the company's growth potential despite facing fragile economic conditions.
- Performance Beat Record: Over the past year, Genius Sports has beaten EPS estimates 25% of the time while achieving a 100% beat rate on revenue estimates, demonstrating stability in revenue management amidst market fluctuations.
- Estimate Revision Trends: In the last three months, EPS estimates have seen no upward revisions and one downward revision, while revenue estimates experienced two upward revisions and eight downward revisions, reflecting a cautious market sentiment regarding the company's future performance.
See More
