Positive Outlook for Datacom Market Growth
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: May 16 2026
0mins
Source: seekingalpha
- Market Growth Forecast: LightCounting has recently revised the datacom market outlook upwards, with expectations for the market to expand at nearly a 35% CAGR through 2028, growing from $19 billion in 2025 to $47 billion by 2028, indicating strong market demand and investment opportunities.
- Data Rate Drivers: Analysts noted that the 1.6T data rate market is expected to grow at approximately 200% CAGR to $21 billion, while the 800G rate is projected to grow at nearly 26% CAGR to $21 billion, highlighting the rapidly increasing demand for high data rate products.
- Increasing Optical Attach Rates: The optical attach rate is forecasted to rise from less than four times in 2025 to 4.5 times by 2027, indicating a growing application of optical components across various processing units, particularly in different architectures used by Google and Nvidia.
- Significant Market Potential: The total addressable market for co-packaged optics is projected to reach $2 billion by 2028 and surge to $11 billion by 2030, suggesting that the growth potential in this area far exceeds conservative estimates from industry analysts, which could significantly boost revenues for related companies.
Trade with 70% Backtested Accuracy
Stop guessing "Should I Buy COHR?" and start using high-conviction signals backed by rigorous historical data.
Sign up today to access powerful investing tools and make smarter, data-driven decisions.
Analyst Views on COHR
Wall Street analysts forecast COHR stock price to fall
13 Analyst Rating
9 Buy
4 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 376.950
Low
170.00
Averages
238.18
High
300.00
Current: 376.950
Low
170.00
Averages
238.18
High
300.00
About COHR
Coherent Corp. is a vertically integrated manufacturing company that develops, manufactures, and markets lasers, transceivers, and other optical and optoelectronic devices, modules, and systems, as well as engineered materials, for use in the communications, industrial, instrumentation and electronics markets. Its segments include datacenter & communications, and industrial. Its datacenter & communications segment offers optical transceivers, optical circuit switches, interconnect cables, optical instruments, optoelectronic devices, communication components, and wavelength management products. Its industrial segment offers lasers, machines & systems, components & accessories, optics, laser measurement instruments, ceramics & metal matrix, ion implantation, engineered materials, and wide-bandgap electronics. Its subsidiaries include Finisar Australia Pty Limited, Nufibre PTY LTD, Finisar Brasil Suporte De Vendas LTDA, Coherent Aerospace & Defense, Inc., and Coherent Asia, Inc.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Gavin Baker's Insights on AI Stock Valuations
- Outstanding Returns: Gavin Baker achieved a compound annual return rate exceeding 19% while managing the OTC portfolio at Fidelity, outperforming 99% of his peers, showcasing his exceptional investment acumen and market insight.
- Large Portfolio Management: At Atreides Management, Baker oversees approximately $7 billion in public and private investments, and although his complete returns are not disclosed, his Sharpe ratio of 2.46 significantly exceeds the industry average, indicating high returns with controlled risk.
- AI Sector Valuation Analysis: On the All-In podcast, Baker highlighted the 'cross-sectionally inefficient' valuations in the AI sector, noting that memory stocks like Micron and Sandisk are currently undervalued, while Nvidia's low P/E suggests potential for price appreciation.
- Investment Strategy Recommendation: Baker advises investors to favor cheaper stocks like Micron and Nvidia over high-valuation stocks like Lumentum, which rely on multiple expansions for growth, suggesting that in the event of overall AI sector fluctuations, the cheaper stocks are likely to outperform in the long run.
See More
Gavin Baker Highlights Valuation Inefficiencies in AI Stocks
- AI Stock Valuation Analysis: Fund manager Gavin Baker identified a 'cross-sectional inefficiency' in AI stocks, suggesting that both cheap and expensive stocks cannot accurately reflect their true value, potentially exposing investors to volatility risks within the same cycle.
- Outstanding Investment Performance: As Chief Investment Officer at Atreides Management, Baker oversees approximately $7 billion in investments and achieved over 19% compound annual returns while managing the OTC Portfolio at Fidelity, outperforming 99% of his peers, showcasing his exceptional prowess in tech investing.
- Market Cyclicality Risks: Baker emphasized that memory chip stocks like Micron and Nvidia may perform better in the current AI cycle, while optical stocks like Lumentum, which rely on multiple expansions, could face greater downside risks, necessitating cautious evaluation by investors.
- Investment Strategy Recommendation: Baker advises investors to opt for cheaper stocks like Micron and Nvidia within the AI sector, steering clear of high-valuation stocks that depend on multiple expansions, aiming for better long-term returns throughout the AI industry's cyclical nature.
See More
NVIDIA Increases Investment in Photonics Technology
- Photonics Investment: Since March, NVIDIA has invested $2 billion in companies like Lumentum, Coherent, and Marvell to advance photonics technology, aiming to enhance AI infrastructure performance and efficiency, thereby maintaining a competitive edge in a rapidly evolving market.
- Silicon Photonics Expansion: CEO Jensen Huang announced at the GTC conference that NVIDIA is scaling its silicon photonics capacity, indicating that significantly higher technological capabilities will be required to meet market demands, which will greatly enhance the computational power and response speed of its products.
- Manufacturing Challenges: Analysts from 650 Group highlight that the rapid growth of photonics technology will face challenges in supply chain and manufacturing capabilities, especially with surging demand, potentially requiring one to two product generations to adapt to the new technology.
- AI System Adaptation: Analyst Gil Luria noted that existing AI systems will need significant redesign to incorporate optical components, a process that may extend product update cycles, but successful implementation will significantly improve the performance and efficiency of AI models.
See More
AI Companies Increase Investment in Photonics Technology
- Photonics Technology Adoption: AI companies are increasingly leveraging photonics technology to enhance data transfer efficiency between AI chips and systems by using light instead of electricity, thereby reducing energy consumption and improving speed to address the current bottlenecks of copper wire transmission.
- Investment Dynamics: Nvidia has invested $2 billion in companies like Lumentum, Coherent, and Marvell developing photonics technology, with plans to invest an additional $500 million in Corning, demonstrating strong financial backing and market confidence in the photonics sector.
- Technical Challenges: Despite the promising outlook for photonics, challenges in scaling up manufacturing and redesigning existing product roadmaps to replace copper wires with optical fibers may require Nvidia and others to launch one or two more generations of products to achieve widespread adoption.
- Market Response: As the AI and semiconductor industries rapidly evolve, Micron's market capitalization has surpassed $1 trillion for the first time, with its stock price surging nearly 200% over the past year, reflecting strong market demand and investment enthusiasm for AI-related technologies.
See More
Nvidia Invests in Photonics Technology to Propel AI Development
- Massive Investment: Nvidia has committed at least $6.5 billion to photonics technology companies over the past three months, aiming to address a major bottleneck in AI deployment, highlighting its strategic positioning in emerging technologies.
- Specific Investments: Since March, Nvidia has announced $2 billion investments into Lumentum, Coherent, and Marvell, along with a $500 million investment in Corning for advanced optical connectivity solutions, further solidifying its leadership in the photonics sector.
- Technological Advantage: Photonics technology, which uses light for data transmission, significantly reduces energy consumption, and Nvidia's investments ensure ongoing advancements in photonics, preventing scalability and performance walls associated with electrical and copper connections.
- Market Outlook: As photonics technology becomes increasingly integrated into AI infrastructure, large-scale adoption is expected by 2028, with Nvidia's investments providing the necessary optical connectivity capabilities for its future AI solutions, enhancing its competitive edge in the market.
See More
Nvidia Commits Over $6.5 Billion to Photonics Technology
- Massive Investment: Since March, Nvidia has committed at least $6.5 billion to photonics technology development, aiming to address major bottlenecks in AI deployment, showcasing its strategic positioning in emerging technologies.
- Technological Advantage: Photonics is viewed as a more efficient data transmission method than traditional electrical processes, and Nvidia's investments will enhance its AI infrastructure scalability while reducing energy costs, thereby improving overall operational efficiency.
- Market Response: Partner companies in photonics like Lumentum and Coherent have seen stock prices rise by 134% and 96% respectively since the beginning of the year, reflecting strong market confidence in the future potential of photonics technology.
- Future Outlook: Despite challenges in scaling production of photonics technology, industry experts anticipate large-scale adoption by 2028, and Nvidia's forward-looking investments will solidify its long-term competitiveness in the AI sector.
See More
Gavin Baker's Insights on AI Stock Valuations
- Outstanding Returns: Gavin Baker achieved a compound annual return rate exceeding 19% while managing the OTC portfolio at Fidelity, outperforming 99% of his peers, showcasing his exceptional investment acumen and market insight.
- Large Portfolio Management: At Atreides Management, Baker oversees approximately $7 billion in public and private investments, and although his complete returns are not disclosed, his Sharpe ratio of 2.46 significantly exceeds the industry average, indicating high returns with controlled risk.
- AI Sector Valuation Analysis: On the All-In podcast, Baker highlighted the 'cross-sectionally inefficient' valuations in the AI sector, noting that memory stocks like Micron and Sandisk are currently undervalued, while Nvidia's low P/E suggests potential for price appreciation.
- Investment Strategy Recommendation: Baker advises investors to favor cheaper stocks like Micron and Nvidia over high-valuation stocks like Lumentum, which rely on multiple expansions for growth, suggesting that in the event of overall AI sector fluctuations, the cheaper stocks are likely to outperform in the long run.
See More
Gavin Baker Highlights Valuation Inefficiencies in AI Stocks
- AI Stock Valuation Analysis: Fund manager Gavin Baker identified a 'cross-sectional inefficiency' in AI stocks, suggesting that both cheap and expensive stocks cannot accurately reflect their true value, potentially exposing investors to volatility risks within the same cycle.
- Outstanding Investment Performance: As Chief Investment Officer at Atreides Management, Baker oversees approximately $7 billion in investments and achieved over 19% compound annual returns while managing the OTC Portfolio at Fidelity, outperforming 99% of his peers, showcasing his exceptional prowess in tech investing.
- Market Cyclicality Risks: Baker emphasized that memory chip stocks like Micron and Nvidia may perform better in the current AI cycle, while optical stocks like Lumentum, which rely on multiple expansions, could face greater downside risks, necessitating cautious evaluation by investors.
- Investment Strategy Recommendation: Baker advises investors to opt for cheaper stocks like Micron and Nvidia within the AI sector, steering clear of high-valuation stocks that depend on multiple expansions, aiming for better long-term returns throughout the AI industry's cyclical nature.
See More
NVIDIA Increases Investment in Photonics Technology
- Photonics Investment: Since March, NVIDIA has invested $2 billion in companies like Lumentum, Coherent, and Marvell to advance photonics technology, aiming to enhance AI infrastructure performance and efficiency, thereby maintaining a competitive edge in a rapidly evolving market.
- Silicon Photonics Expansion: CEO Jensen Huang announced at the GTC conference that NVIDIA is scaling its silicon photonics capacity, indicating that significantly higher technological capabilities will be required to meet market demands, which will greatly enhance the computational power and response speed of its products.
- Manufacturing Challenges: Analysts from 650 Group highlight that the rapid growth of photonics technology will face challenges in supply chain and manufacturing capabilities, especially with surging demand, potentially requiring one to two product generations to adapt to the new technology.
- AI System Adaptation: Analyst Gil Luria noted that existing AI systems will need significant redesign to incorporate optical components, a process that may extend product update cycles, but successful implementation will significantly improve the performance and efficiency of AI models.
See More
AI Companies Increase Investment in Photonics Technology
- Photonics Technology Adoption: AI companies are increasingly leveraging photonics technology to enhance data transfer efficiency between AI chips and systems by using light instead of electricity, thereby reducing energy consumption and improving speed to address the current bottlenecks of copper wire transmission.
- Investment Dynamics: Nvidia has invested $2 billion in companies like Lumentum, Coherent, and Marvell developing photonics technology, with plans to invest an additional $500 million in Corning, demonstrating strong financial backing and market confidence in the photonics sector.
- Technical Challenges: Despite the promising outlook for photonics, challenges in scaling up manufacturing and redesigning existing product roadmaps to replace copper wires with optical fibers may require Nvidia and others to launch one or two more generations of products to achieve widespread adoption.
- Market Response: As the AI and semiconductor industries rapidly evolve, Micron's market capitalization has surpassed $1 trillion for the first time, with its stock price surging nearly 200% over the past year, reflecting strong market demand and investment enthusiasm for AI-related technologies.
See More
Nvidia Invests in Photonics Technology to Propel AI Development
- Massive Investment: Nvidia has committed at least $6.5 billion to photonics technology companies over the past three months, aiming to address a major bottleneck in AI deployment, highlighting its strategic positioning in emerging technologies.
- Specific Investments: Since March, Nvidia has announced $2 billion investments into Lumentum, Coherent, and Marvell, along with a $500 million investment in Corning for advanced optical connectivity solutions, further solidifying its leadership in the photonics sector.
- Technological Advantage: Photonics technology, which uses light for data transmission, significantly reduces energy consumption, and Nvidia's investments ensure ongoing advancements in photonics, preventing scalability and performance walls associated with electrical and copper connections.
- Market Outlook: As photonics technology becomes increasingly integrated into AI infrastructure, large-scale adoption is expected by 2028, with Nvidia's investments providing the necessary optical connectivity capabilities for its future AI solutions, enhancing its competitive edge in the market.
See More
Nvidia Commits Over $6.5 Billion to Photonics Technology
- Massive Investment: Since March, Nvidia has committed at least $6.5 billion to photonics technology development, aiming to address major bottlenecks in AI deployment, showcasing its strategic positioning in emerging technologies.
- Technological Advantage: Photonics is viewed as a more efficient data transmission method than traditional electrical processes, and Nvidia's investments will enhance its AI infrastructure scalability while reducing energy costs, thereby improving overall operational efficiency.
- Market Response: Partner companies in photonics like Lumentum and Coherent have seen stock prices rise by 134% and 96% respectively since the beginning of the year, reflecting strong market confidence in the future potential of photonics technology.
- Future Outlook: Despite challenges in scaling production of photonics technology, industry experts anticipate large-scale adoption by 2028, and Nvidia's forward-looking investments will solidify its long-term competitiveness in the AI sector.
See More
