Should You Buy Coherent Corp (COHR) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Hold
Latest Price
221.140
1 Day change
3.34%
52 Week Range
222.970
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/28
Not a good buy right now for a beginner long-term investor who wants to enter immediately. COHR is in a strong uptrend but is short-term extended/overbought and trading near resistance (~226.6) with earnings on Feb 4 acting as a near-term catalyst/risk. With hedge funds increasing selling and recent Congress activity skewed to sells, the risk/reward at $222.36 is not attractive for an impatient entry today. I would hold off rather than buy at this level.
Technical Analysis
Trend is bullish: moving averages are aligned positively (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200) and MACD histogram is positive and expanding (momentum still up). However, RSI(6) is ~79, which signals the stock is stretched in the short term (overbought/extended). Price is also above R1 (217.13) and approaching R2 (226.63), so upside from here looks more limited near-term unless earnings surprise meaningfully. Key levels: support around the pivot ~201.75 (then ~186.37), resistance ~226.63.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Put/call ratios below 1.0 are generally bullish (more call positioning than puts), suggesting positive sentiment overall. That said, implied volatility is elevated (30D IV ~74.7, IV percentile 78), which is consistent with a market pricing a notable move into earnings. News also flagged notable activity in the $190 strike puts, implying some investors are paying for downside protection despite the broadly bullish call skew.
Technical Summary
Sell
4
Buy
10
Positive Catalysts
1) Analysts broadly raising price targets into the Feb 4 (QDEC 2025) earnings report, tied to AI/optical demand and re-acceleration expectations.
2) Sector narrative remains supportive: AI infrastructure and faster optical networking cycles.
3) Technical trend is still firmly up (bullish MA stack + positive MACD momentum).
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
1) Near-term event risk: earnings on 2026-02-04 (after hours) with elevated implied volatility (bigger swing risk priced in).
2) Short-term stretched technicals (RSI(6) ~79) and price near resistance (~226.6), increasing pullback risk.
3) Positioning/sentiment flags: hedge funds have been net sellers (selling amount up ~148% last quarter) and Congress trading in the last 90 days shows 3 sales and 0 purchases (cautious/negative signal).
Financial Performance
Latest reported quarter: 2026/Q1. Revenue grew to ~$1.581B (+17.3% YoY), which supports the AI/optical demand thesis. Gross margin improved to ~36.63% (+7.32% YoY), also constructive. However, Net Income ($192.9M) and EPS (1.19) show extremely large YoY declines (down ~-3344% and ~-3075%), which strongly suggests the prior-year period had unusually high earnings (e.g., one-time items) or this quarter had unusual charges; regardless, it’s a mixed headline and can raise uncertainty into the next print.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend is decisively upward on price targets and generally positive ratings: Citi lifted PT to $250 (Buy), Susquehanna to $235 (Positive), Stifel to $220 (Buy), JPMorgan to $215 (Overweight), while some firms remain neutral (BofA Neutral PT $210; Morgan Stanley Equal Weight PT $180). One notable bearish outlier was Northland’s downgrade to Market Perform with a $125 PT (Nov 2025). Wall Street pros (bull case): AI accelerator demand and optical transceiver/component strength driving growth reacceleration. Cons: valuation/multiple selectivity concerns and the need to prove sustained expansion beyond the current AI/optical cycle.
Wall Street analysts forecast COHR stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for COHR is 175.92 USD with a low forecast of 113 USD and a high forecast of 220 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
13 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast COHR stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for COHR is 175.92 USD with a low forecast of 113 USD and a high forecast of 220 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
8 Buy
5 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 214.000
Low
113
Averages
175.92
High
220
Current: 214.000
Low
113
Averages
175.92
High
220
Citi
Buy
upgrade
$180 -> $250
AI Analysis
2026-01-26
New
Reason
Citi
Price Target
$180 -> $250
AI Analysis
2026-01-26
New
upgrade
Buy
Reason
Citi raised the firm's price target on Coherent to $250 from $180 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm upped its 2027 earnings estimates for Coherent 28% ahead of consensus heading into the December quarter report on February 4. Citi sees the company's growth reaccelerating on higher demand for AI accelerators.
Susquehanna
Christopher Rolland
Positive
maintain
$160 -> $235
2026-01-22
Reason
Susquehanna
Christopher Rolland
Price Target
$160 -> $235
2026-01-22
maintain
Positive
Reason
Susquehanna analyst Christopher Rolland raised the firm's price target on Coherent to $235 from $160 and keeps a Positive rating on the shares. The firm updated targets in the semiconductor group as a part of an earnings preview. Susquehanna generally expects in-line results to modest upside in Q4, amid a "steadying upcycle" and a broadening of the artificial intelligence infrastructure supply chain. While the industrial end market is improving, auto remains somewhat challenged, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
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