Novogratz: Bitcoin Unlikely to Exceed $100K This Year
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Apr 28 2026
0mins
Should l Buy GLXY?
Source: seekingalpha
- Bitcoin Price Outlook: Galaxy Digital CEO Michael Novogratz stated that Bitcoin is unlikely to exceed $100K this year, noting that despite a recovery from a severe sell-off to $60K back up to $80K, there are still significant resistance levels to overcome between $80K and $85K.
- Earnings Report Performance: Galaxy Digital reported a Q1 non-GAAP EPS of -$0.49, beating analyst estimates by $0.44, with revenue of $10.04 billion, down 22.7% year-over-year, yet surpassing expectations by $1.29 billion, demonstrating resilience amid challenging market conditions.
- Market Concerns: Despite the earnings beat, Galaxy Digital's stock price remained relatively unchanged due to ongoing concerns over the depreciation of digital asset prices, reflecting a cautious market sentiment regarding the future of cryptocurrencies.
- Macroeconomic Factors: Novogratz emphasized that for Bitcoin to reclaim the $100K mark, easing from central banks is necessary, and with the ongoing war in Iraq, significant inflation data is expected, which could adversely affect Bitcoin's price trajectory.
Trade with 70% Backtested Accuracy
Stop guessing "Should I Buy GLXY?" and start using high-conviction signals backed by rigorous historical data.
Sign up today to access powerful investing tools and make smarter, data-driven decisions.
Analyst Views on GLXY
Wall Street analysts forecast GLXY stock price to rise
12 Analyst Rating
11 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 29.300
Low
24.00
Averages
43.89
High
60.00
Current: 29.300
Low
24.00
Averages
43.89
High
60.00
About GLXY
Galaxy Digital Inc. is engaged in the business of digital assets and data center infrastructure, delivering solutions that accelerate progress in finance and artificial intelligence (AI). The Company's digital assets platform offers institutional access to trading, advisory, asset management, staking, self-custody, and tokenization technology. In addition, it develops and operates data center infrastructure to power AI and high-performance computing workloads. The Company's segments include Digital Assets, Data Centers, and Treasury and Corporate. Its Digital Assets operating business segment provides new products and capabilities such as staking, margin-based financing and active exchange-traded funds. The Data Centers segment comprises the Helios infrastructure assets. The Company's Data Centers segment develops and operates High Performance Computing (HPC) infrastructure to meet the growing demand for large-scale, power-ready facilities in the AI/HPC industry.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
GENIUS Act Stablecoin Development Outlook
- Stablecoin Market Forecast: According to Galaxy Research, stablecoins under the GENIUS Act are projected to stimulate up to $1.2 trillion in credit expansion by 2030, indicating their potential economic impact.
- Tax Savings Potential: Analysts suggest that the growth of stablecoins could save taxpayers billions in financing costs, with Treasury yields expected to drop by 3-5 basis points, thereby alleviating fiscal burdens.
- Overseas Market Dominance: Galaxy's research indicates that 60%-70% of stablecoin growth under the GENIUS Act will come from offshore markets, with imported deposits expected to outweigh domestic migration by a 2-to-1 ratio, countering banking industry concerns.
- Legislative Battle Outlook: The banking sector is lobbying through the Clarity Act to close loopholes in interest payments on stablecoins, indicating that future competition between stablecoins and bank deposits will be a key legislative battleground.
See More
Galaxy Digital's SEC Filings Spark Investor Debate
- Financing Overview: Galaxy Digital filed for a $500 million at-the-market offering, allowing for opportunistic sales of new Class A common stock, which could provide the company with flexible capital raising options, although it may dilute existing shareholders' stakes.
- Shareholder Structure Changes: CEO Michael Novogratz registered his 202.3 million shares for potential sale, which does not imply immediate selling intentions but opens the door for future market transactions, potentially impacting investor confidence.
- Market Reaction Divergence: Retail investors on Stocktwits expressed mixed reactions to Galaxy's financing plans, with some fearing dilution could lead to stock price declines, while others believe the $500 million raised will support the Phase 2 buildout of the Helios AI data center, reflecting confidence in the company's future growth.
- Capital Group Involvement: Capital Group participated in Galaxy's private placement at $36 per share, despite the current stock price being $29.30, indicating an approximate 18% discount; the success of this transaction will directly influence Galaxy's market performance and investor sentiment.
See More
U.S. Stocks Rise, Nasdaq Hits All-Time High
- Nasdaq Milestone: The Nasdaq 100 index rose by 1.08%, reaching an all-time high, driven by strong performances in technology stocks, particularly Intel, which surged over 10%, indicating increased market confidence in the tech sector.
- Crude Oil Decline: WTI crude prices fell by more than 3% as calm returned to the Middle East, despite U.S. Central Command's announcement of military support for ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, which could impact global energy supply dynamics.
- Widening Trade Deficit: The U.S. trade deficit widened to $60.3 billion in March from $57.8 billion in February, although it was narrower than the expected $61 billion, reflecting the complexities of economic recovery and its potential implications for the stock market.
- Strong Earnings Reports: So far, 82% of the 322 S&P 500 companies that reported Q1 earnings have exceeded estimates, with overall earnings projected to rise by 12% year-over-year, indicating improved corporate profitability that may further drive stock market gains.
See More
Middle East Tensions Weigh on Stock Market Performance
- Market Decline: The S&P 500 index fell by 0.41%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped by 1.13%, and the Nasdaq 100 index decreased by 0.21%, reflecting investor concerns over escalating tensions in the Middle East, which dampened market sentiment.
- Oil Price Surge: WTI crude oil prices surged over 4% following exchanges of fire between the US and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz, raising inflation expectations and pushing bond yields higher, with the 10-year T-note yield reaching a five-week high of 4.46%.
- Strong Economic Data: US March factory orders rose by 1.5% month-over-month, exceeding expectations of 0.6%, marking the largest increase in four months, indicating economic resilience that could provide support to the stock market.
- Earnings Optimism: As of Monday, 82% of the 322 S&P 500 companies that reported Q1 earnings exceeded estimates, with projected earnings growth of 12% year-over-year for Q1, although excluding the technology sector, the growth is only 3%, highlighting performance disparities across sectors.
See More
US Stock Market Volatility Amid Oil Price Recovery
- Market Volatility: The S&P 500 index fell by 0.04%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 0.42%, while the Nasdaq 100 index rose by 0.19%, indicating market fluctuations amid heightened tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, leading to cautious investor sentiment.
- Oil Price Recovery: WTI crude oil prices slightly increased following an unverified report of two missiles hitting a US patrol boat, despite US Central Command stating no US ships were struck, highlighting the market's sensitivity to geopolitical risks.
- Corporate Earnings Optimism: So far, 82% of the 317 S&P 500 companies that reported earnings exceeded expectations, with Q1 earnings projected to rise by 12% year-over-year, demonstrating corporate resilience driven by AI investments, which may support the stock market.
- Interest Rate Expectations Shift: The market discounts only a 3% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting in June, while the ECB's rate hike expectations stand at 93%, reflecting differing investor outlooks on future monetary policy.
See More
Circle Internet Group IPO Boosted by CLARITY Act Compromise
- Stock Surge: Circle's shares jumped 16% following the compromise on the CLARITY Act, indicating strong market support for stablecoin reward programs, which could attract more investment into the company.
- Legislative Impact: The revised bill allows rewards based on activities like trading and staking while restricting interest payments on stablecoin deposits, potentially pressuring smaller crypto platforms reliant on high-yield products to rethink their strategies.
- Positive Industry Response: Coinbase's stock rose over 7%, reflecting favorable market sentiment towards the new legislation, with CEO Brian Armstrong expressing support on social media, emphasizing fair competition between crypto firms and traditional banks.
- Banking Sector Perspective: Bank of America analysts described the CLARITY Act's passage as a net positive for the industry, expecting it to alleviate concerns about deposit flight, reduce regulatory uncertainty, and enable banks to engage with digital asset infrastructure under more controlled terms.
See More
GENIUS Act Stablecoin Development Outlook
- Stablecoin Market Forecast: According to Galaxy Research, stablecoins under the GENIUS Act are projected to stimulate up to $1.2 trillion in credit expansion by 2030, indicating their potential economic impact.
- Tax Savings Potential: Analysts suggest that the growth of stablecoins could save taxpayers billions in financing costs, with Treasury yields expected to drop by 3-5 basis points, thereby alleviating fiscal burdens.
- Overseas Market Dominance: Galaxy's research indicates that 60%-70% of stablecoin growth under the GENIUS Act will come from offshore markets, with imported deposits expected to outweigh domestic migration by a 2-to-1 ratio, countering banking industry concerns.
- Legislative Battle Outlook: The banking sector is lobbying through the Clarity Act to close loopholes in interest payments on stablecoins, indicating that future competition between stablecoins and bank deposits will be a key legislative battleground.
See More
Galaxy Digital's SEC Filings Spark Investor Debate
- Financing Overview: Galaxy Digital filed for a $500 million at-the-market offering, allowing for opportunistic sales of new Class A common stock, which could provide the company with flexible capital raising options, although it may dilute existing shareholders' stakes.
- Shareholder Structure Changes: CEO Michael Novogratz registered his 202.3 million shares for potential sale, which does not imply immediate selling intentions but opens the door for future market transactions, potentially impacting investor confidence.
- Market Reaction Divergence: Retail investors on Stocktwits expressed mixed reactions to Galaxy's financing plans, with some fearing dilution could lead to stock price declines, while others believe the $500 million raised will support the Phase 2 buildout of the Helios AI data center, reflecting confidence in the company's future growth.
- Capital Group Involvement: Capital Group participated in Galaxy's private placement at $36 per share, despite the current stock price being $29.30, indicating an approximate 18% discount; the success of this transaction will directly influence Galaxy's market performance and investor sentiment.
See More
U.S. Stocks Rise, Nasdaq Hits All-Time High
- Nasdaq Milestone: The Nasdaq 100 index rose by 1.08%, reaching an all-time high, driven by strong performances in technology stocks, particularly Intel, which surged over 10%, indicating increased market confidence in the tech sector.
- Crude Oil Decline: WTI crude prices fell by more than 3% as calm returned to the Middle East, despite U.S. Central Command's announcement of military support for ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, which could impact global energy supply dynamics.
- Widening Trade Deficit: The U.S. trade deficit widened to $60.3 billion in March from $57.8 billion in February, although it was narrower than the expected $61 billion, reflecting the complexities of economic recovery and its potential implications for the stock market.
- Strong Earnings Reports: So far, 82% of the 322 S&P 500 companies that reported Q1 earnings have exceeded estimates, with overall earnings projected to rise by 12% year-over-year, indicating improved corporate profitability that may further drive stock market gains.
See More
Middle East Tensions Weigh on Stock Market Performance
- Market Decline: The S&P 500 index fell by 0.41%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped by 1.13%, and the Nasdaq 100 index decreased by 0.21%, reflecting investor concerns over escalating tensions in the Middle East, which dampened market sentiment.
- Oil Price Surge: WTI crude oil prices surged over 4% following exchanges of fire between the US and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz, raising inflation expectations and pushing bond yields higher, with the 10-year T-note yield reaching a five-week high of 4.46%.
- Strong Economic Data: US March factory orders rose by 1.5% month-over-month, exceeding expectations of 0.6%, marking the largest increase in four months, indicating economic resilience that could provide support to the stock market.
- Earnings Optimism: As of Monday, 82% of the 322 S&P 500 companies that reported Q1 earnings exceeded estimates, with projected earnings growth of 12% year-over-year for Q1, although excluding the technology sector, the growth is only 3%, highlighting performance disparities across sectors.
See More
US Stock Market Volatility Amid Oil Price Recovery
- Market Volatility: The S&P 500 index fell by 0.04%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 0.42%, while the Nasdaq 100 index rose by 0.19%, indicating market fluctuations amid heightened tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, leading to cautious investor sentiment.
- Oil Price Recovery: WTI crude oil prices slightly increased following an unverified report of two missiles hitting a US patrol boat, despite US Central Command stating no US ships were struck, highlighting the market's sensitivity to geopolitical risks.
- Corporate Earnings Optimism: So far, 82% of the 317 S&P 500 companies that reported earnings exceeded expectations, with Q1 earnings projected to rise by 12% year-over-year, demonstrating corporate resilience driven by AI investments, which may support the stock market.
- Interest Rate Expectations Shift: The market discounts only a 3% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting in June, while the ECB's rate hike expectations stand at 93%, reflecting differing investor outlooks on future monetary policy.
See More
Circle Internet Group IPO Boosted by CLARITY Act Compromise
- Stock Surge: Circle's shares jumped 16% following the compromise on the CLARITY Act, indicating strong market support for stablecoin reward programs, which could attract more investment into the company.
- Legislative Impact: The revised bill allows rewards based on activities like trading and staking while restricting interest payments on stablecoin deposits, potentially pressuring smaller crypto platforms reliant on high-yield products to rethink their strategies.
- Positive Industry Response: Coinbase's stock rose over 7%, reflecting favorable market sentiment towards the new legislation, with CEO Brian Armstrong expressing support on social media, emphasizing fair competition between crypto firms and traditional banks.
- Banking Sector Perspective: Bank of America analysts described the CLARITY Act's passage as a net positive for the industry, expecting it to alleviate concerns about deposit flight, reduce regulatory uncertainty, and enable banks to engage with digital asset infrastructure under more controlled terms.
See More
